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The post-Newtonian formalism plays an integral role in the models used to extract information from gravitational wave data, but models that incorporate this formalism are inherently approximations. Disagreement between an approximate model and nature will produce mismodeling biases in the parameters inferred from data, introducing systematic error. We here carry out a proof-of- principle study of such systematic error by considering signals produced by quasi-circular, inspiraling black hole binaries through an injection and recovery campaign. In particular, we study how un- known, but calibrated, higher-order post-Newtonian corrections to the gravitational wave phase impact systematic error in recovered parameters. As a first study, we produce injected data of non-spinning binaries as detected by a current, second-generation network of ground-based observatories and recover them with models of varying PN order in the phase. We find that the truncation of higher order (>3.5) post-Newtonian corrections to the phase can produce significant systematic error even at signal-to-noise ratios of current detector networks. We propose a method to mitigate systematic error by marginalizing over our ignorance in the waveform through the inclusion of higher-order post-Newtonian coefficients as new model parameters. We show that this method can reduce systematic error greatly at the cost of increasing statistical error. 

Abstract The population-level distributions of the masses, spins, and redshifts of binary black holes (BBHs) observed using gravitational waves can shed light on how these systems form and evolve. Because of the complex astrophysical processes shaping the inferred BBH population, models allowing for correlations among these parameters will be necessary to fully characterize these sources. We hierarchically analyze the BBH population detected by LIGO and Virgo with a model allowing for correlations between the effective aligned spin and the primary mass and redshift. We find that the width of the effective spin distribution grows with redshift at 98.6% credibility. We determine this trend to be robust under the application of several alternative models and additionally verify that such a correlation is unlikely to be spuriously introduced using a simulated population. We discuss the possibility that this correlation could be due to a change in the natal black hole spin distribution with redshift.