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Creators/Authors contains: "Hobbs, Benjamin F"

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  1. In this paper, we present a novel open-source electricity systems optimization tool--the Holistic Optimization Program for Electricity (HOPE)--to assess emerging generation technology, inform policy design, and support planning. With a highly transparent, interpretable and compact model design, HOPE easily allows user access and modification, serving its main goal to benefit users beyond engineer communities and facilitate collaboration across the science-policy boundary. By activating different modes, the current version of HOPE (v1.0) offers flexibility in serving as either a Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning tool (GTEP) or a Production Cost Modelling tool (PCM). It includes modelling features such as long-term resource investments, short-term system operations, and a detailed representation of policies across various levels of regulated institutions. This paper outlines the building blocks of the model and its software structure. Case study results from using HOPE for the state of Maryland as well as Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) footprint are also provided. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2026
  2. National models of the electric sector typically consider a handful of generator operating periods per year, while pollutant fate and transport models have an hourly resolution. We bridge that scale gap by introducing a novel fundamental-based temporal downscaling method (TDM) for translating national or regional energy scenarios to hourly emissions. Optimization-based generator dispatch is used to account for variations in emissions stemming from weather-sensitive power demands and wind and solar generation. The TDM is demonstrated by downscaling emissions from the electricity market module in the National Energy Model System. As a case study, we implement the TDM in the Virginia−Carolinas region and compare its results with traditional statistical downscaling used in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing model. We find that the TDM emission profiles respond to weather and that nitrogen oxide emissions are positively correlated with conditions conducive to ozone formation. In contrast, SMOKE emission time series, which are rooted in historical operating patterns, exhibit insensitivity to weather conditions and potential biases, particularly with high renewable penetration and climate change. Relying on SMOKE profiles can also obscure variations in emission patterns across different policy scenarios, potentially downplaying their impacts on power system operations and emissions. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 19, 2025