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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2024
  2. Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication and systematic updating of model uncertainty as new data become available. When applied to material flow analysis (MFA), however, Bayesian inference is undermined by the difficulty of defining proper priors for the MFA parameters and quantifying the noise in the collected data. We start to address these issues by first deriving and implementing an expert elicitation procedure suitable for generating MFA parameter priors. Second, we propose to learn the data noise concurrent with the parametric uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using a case study on the 2012 US steel flow. Eight experts are interviewed to elicit distributions on steel flow uncertainty from raw materials to intermediate goods. The experts’ distributions are combined and weighted according to the expertise demonstrated in response to seeding questions. These aggregated distributions form our model parameters’ informative priors. Sensible, weakly informative priors are adopted for learning the data noise. Bayesian inference is then performed to update the parametric and data noise uncertainty given MFA data collected from the United States Geological Survey and the World Steel Association. The results show a reduction in MFA parametric uncertainty when incorporating the collected data. Only a modest reduction in data noise uncertainty was observed using 2012 data; however, greater reductions were achieved when using data from multiple years in the inference. These methods generate transparent MFA and data noise uncertainties learned from data rather than pre-assumed data noise levels, providing a more robust basis for decision-making that affects the system. 
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  3. Informed decision-making for sustainable manufacturing requires accurate manufacturing process environmental impact models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). For emerging manufacturing technologies, there is often insufficient process data available to derive accurate data-driven models. This paper explores an alternative mechanistic modeling approach using easy-to-access data from a given machine to perform Bayesian inference and reduce the uncertainty of model parameters. First, we derive mechanistic models of the cumulative energy demand (CED) for making aluminum (AlSi10) and nylon (PA12) parts using laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF). Initial parametric uncertainty is assigned to the model inputs informed by literature reviews and interviews with industry experts. Second, we identify the most critical sources of uncertainty using variance-based global sensitivity analyses; therefore, reducing the dimension of the problem. For metal and polymer L-PBF, critical uncertainty is related to the adiabatic efficiency of the process (a measure of the efficiency with which the laser energy is used to fuse the powder) and the recoating time per layer between laser scans. Data pertinent to both of these parameters include the part geometry (height and volume) and total build time. Between three and eight data points on part geometry and build time were collected on two different L-PBF machines and Bayesian inference was performed to reduce the uncertainty of the adiabatic efficiency and recoating time per layer on each machine. This approach was validated by subsequently taking direct parameter measurements on these machines during operation. The delivered electricity uncertainty is reduced by 40-70% after performing inference, highlighting the potential to construct accurate energy and environmental impact models of manufacturing processes using small easy-to-access datasets without interfering with the operations of the manufacturing facility. 
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  4. Abstract

    Organic redox-active molecules are attractive as redox-flow battery (RFB) reactants because of their low anticipated costs and widely tunable properties. Unfortunately, many lab-scale flow cells experience rapid material degradation (from chemical and electrochemical decay mechanisms) and capacity fade during cycling (>0.1%/day) hindering their commercial deployment. In this work, we combine ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometry and statistical inference techniques to elucidate the Michael attack decay mechanism for 4,5-dihydroxy-1,3-benzenedisulfonic acid (BQDS), a once-promising positive electrolyte reactant for aqueous organic redox-flow batteries. We use Bayesian inference and multivariate curve resolution on the spectroscopic data to derive uncertainty-quantified reaction orders and rates for Michael attack, estimate the spectra of intermediate species and establish a quantitative connection between molecular decay and capacity fade. Our work illustrates the promise of using statistical inference to elucidate chemical and electrochemical mechanisms of capacity fade in organic redox-flow battery together with uncertainty quantification, in flow cell-based electrochemical systems.

     
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  5. Abstract

    Bayesian inference allows the transparent communication and systematic updating of model uncertainty as new data become available. When applied to material flow analysis (MFA), however, Bayesian inference is undermined by the difficulty of defining proper priors for the MFA parameters and quantifying the noise in the collected data. We start to address these issues by first deriving and implementing an expert elicitation procedure suitable for generating MFA parameter priors. Second, we propose to learn the data noise concurrent with the parametric uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using a case study on the 2012 US steel flow. Eight experts are interviewed to elicit distributions on steel flow uncertainty from raw materials to intermediate goods. The experts' distributions are combined and weighted according to the expertise demonstrated in response to seeding questions. These aggregated distributions form our model parameters' informative priors. Sensible, weakly informative priors are adopted for learning the data noise. Bayesian inference is then performed to update the parametric and data noise uncertainty given MFA data collected from the United States Geological Survey and the World Steel Association. The results show a reduction in MFA parametric uncertainty when incorporating the collected data. Only a modest reduction in data noise uncertainty was observed using 2012 data; however, greater reductions were achieved when using data from multiple years in the inference. These methods generate transparent MFA and data noise uncertainties learned from data rather than pre‐assumed data noise levels, providing a more robust basis for decision‐making that affects the system.

     
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  6. Abstract

    Modeling the impact of space weather events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial to protecting critical infrastructure. The Space Weather Modeling Framework is a state‐of‐the‐art framework that offers full Sun‐to‐Earth simulations by computing the background solar wind, CME propagation, and magnetospheric impact. However, reliable long‐term predictions of CME events require uncertainty quantification (UQ) and data assimilation. We take the first steps by performing global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and UQ for background solar wind simulations produced by the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) for two Carrington rotations: CR2152 (solar maximum) and CR2208 (solar minimum). We conduct GSA by computing Sobol' indices that quantify contributions from model parameter uncertainty to the variance of solar wind speed and density at 1 au, both crucial quantities for CME propagation and strength. Sobol' indices also allow us to rank and retain only the most important parameters, which aids in the construction of smaller ensembles for the reduced‐dimension parameter space. We present an efficient procedure for computing the Sobol' indices using polynomial chaos expansion surrogates and space‐filling designs. The PCEs further enable inexpensive forward UQ. Overall, we identify three important model parameters: the multiplicative factor applied to the magnetogram, Poynting flux per magnetic field strength constant used at the inner boundary, and the coefficient of the perpendicular correlation length in the turbulent cascade model in AWSoM.

     
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