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Coastal populations are facing increasing environmental stress from coastal hazards including sea level rise, increasing tidal ranges, and storm surges from hurricanes. The East and Gulf Coasts of the United States (U.S.) are projected to face high rates of sea level rise and include many of the U.S.’s largest urban populations. This study proposes modelling land-use change and coastal change between 1996-2019 to project the impacts of intensifying coastal hazards on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast populations and to estimate how coastal populations are growing or retreating from high-risk areas. The primary objective is to develop a multifaceted spatial-temporal (MuST) framework to model coastal change through land-use projections and thorough analysis of the indicators of coastal urban growth or retreat. While urban growth models exist, one that presents an interdisciplinary evaluation of potential growth and retreat due to geographic factors and coastal hazards has not been released. This study proposes modelling urban growth using geospatial metrics including topographic slope, topographic elevation, distance to existing urban areas, distance to existing roads, and distance to the coast. The model will also use historic hurricane data, including storm track and footprint for named storms between 1996-2019 and the associated flood claims data from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to account for existing impacts from coastal storms. Additionally, climate change data including sea level rise projections and future tidal ranges will be incorporated to project the impacts of future coastal hazards on urban expansion over the next 30 years (2020-2050). The basis of the urban growth model compares land-use change between 1996-2019 to complete a geospatial analysis of both the areas shifting from rural (agricultural, forest, wetlands) to urban, indicating growth and population data from 2000-2020, to evaluate coastal retreat or abandonment over the next 30 years.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2024
Barrier island models that include marsh and lagoon processes are highly parameterized. To constrain model uncertainty, those desiring to use these models should seek a robust understanding of the parameter sensitivities. In this study, global sensitivity analysis was performed on a long-term barrier island model to yield insights into the modeled barrier-backbarrier system. Given that a variety of global sensitivity analysis methods exist, each one appearing to differ in its implementation, computational burden, and output, three methods (i.e., the Two-Level Full Factorial Method, Morris Method, and Sobol Method) were applied to the model for the purposes of comparison. Key influential parameters (e.g., sea level rise rate, equilibrium/critical barrier width, and reference wind speed) were consistently identified by all three sensitivity analysis methods. Despite the relatively low number of simulations required by the Morris Method, the Two-Level Method computationally outperformed the others, warranting further exploration of the Morris Method’s parallelization structure. These results may be used to help identify parameter constraints and characterize model uncertainty toward more confident predictions and management decisions for coastal barrier systems.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2024