More Like this

1. Aging in Flood-Prone Coastal Areas: Discerning the Health and Well-Being Risk for Older Residents

   https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122900  

   Bukvic, Anamaria ; Gohlke, Julia ; Borate, Aishwarya ; Suggs, Jessica ( December 2018 , International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health)

   Coastal communities are increasingly exposed to more intense and frequent hurricanes, accelerated sea-level rise, and prolonged tidal inundation, yet they are often a preferred retirement destination for older adults vulnerable to flooding and extreme weather events. The unique physical and psychosocial challenges of older population age 65 and over may affect their level of preparedness, capacity to cope with, and ability to respond and recover from a hazard event. Despite the clear vulnerabilities of older residents living in high-risk areas when compared to younger coastal populations, there is a lack of empirical research on the integrated flood risks to this population group in the coastal context. This paper provides a holistic assessment of this emerging problem along the U.S. East Coast by measuring the exposure of older population to sea level rise and storm surge in coastal counties. It further evaluates how age-related vulnerabilities differ between rural and urban settings using the case study approach and geospatial and statistical analysis the paper also conducts a review of scientific literature to identify gaps in the current understanding of health and well-being risks to aging populations in coastal communities. The results show that older populations are unevenly distributed along the U.S. Eastmore »Coast with some states and counties having significantly higher percent of residents age 65 and older living along the shoreline. Many places with larger older populations have other attributes that further shape the vulnerability of this age group such as older housing stock, disabilities, and lower income and that often differ between rural and urban settings. Lastly, our study found that vast majority of research on aging in high-risk coastal locations has been conducted in relation to major disasters and almost none on the recurrent nuisance flooding that is already affecting many coastal communities.« less
2. Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4  

   Twilley, Robert R. ; Bentley, Samuel J. ; Chen, Qin ; Edmonds, Douglas A. ; Hagen, Scott C. ; Lam, Nina S.-N. ; Willson, Clinton S. ; Xu, Kehui ; Braud, DeWitt ; Hampton Peele, R. ; et al ( May 2016 , Sustainability Science)

   Abstract River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us tomore »test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p\0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and\0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).« less
3. Comparison of Extreme Coastal Flooding Events between Tropical and Midlatitude Weather Systems in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0077.1  

   Callahan, John A. ; Leathers, Daniel J. ; Callahan, Christina L. ( April 2022 , Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology)

   Abstract Coastal flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards facing the U.S. mid-Atlantic region today. Impacts in this heavily populated and economically significant region are caused by a combination of the location’s exposure and natural forcing from storms and sea level rise. Tropical cyclones (TCs) and midlatitude (ML) weather systems each have caused extreme coastal flooding in the region. Skew surge was computed over each tidal cycle for the past 40 years (1980–2019) at several tide gauges in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays to compare the meteorological component of surge for each weather type. Although TCs cause higher mean surges, ML weather systems can produce surges just as severe and occur much more frequently, peaking in the cold season (November–March). Of the top 10 largest surge events, TCs account for 30%–45% in the Delaware and upper Chesapeake Bays and 40%–45% in the lower Chesapeake Bay. This percentage drops to 10%–15% for larger numbers of events in all regions. Mean sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields of the top 10 surge events from ML weather systems show a low pressure center west-southwest of “Delmarva” and a semistationary high pressure center to the northeast priormore »to maximum surge, producing strong easterly winds. Low pressure centers intensify under upper-level divergence as they travel eastward, and the high pressure centers are near the GPH ridges. During lower-bay events, the low pressure centers develop farther south, intensifying over warmer coastal waters, with a south-shifted GPH pattern relative to upper-bay events. Significance Statement Severe coastal flooding is a year-round threat in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, and impacts are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency. Research into the meteorological contribution to storm surge, separate from mean sea level and tidal phase, will increase the scientific understanding and monitoring of changing atmospheric conditions. Tropical cyclones and midlatitude weather systems both significantly impact the mid-Atlantic region during different times of year. However, climate change may alter the future behavior of these systems differently. Understanding the synoptic environment and quantifying the surge response and subbay geographic variability of each weather system in this region will aid in public awareness, near-term emergency preparation, and long-term planning for coastal storms.« less
4. Optimization of Coastal Protections in the Presence of Climate Change

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.613293  

   Miura, Yuki ; Dinenis, Philip C. ; Mandli, Kyle T. ; Deodatis, George ; Bienstock, Daniel ( August 2021 , Frontiers in Climate)

   It is generally acknowledged that interdependent critical infrastructure in coastal urban areas is constantly threatened by storm-induced flooding. Due to changing climate effects, such as sea level rise (SLR), the occurrence of catastrophic events will be more frequent and may trigger an increased likelihood of severe hazards. Planning a protective measure or mitigation strategy is a complex problem given the constraints that it must fit within a prescribed and limited fiscal budget and be beneficial to the community it protects both socially and economically. This article proposes a methodology for optimizing protective measures and mitigation strategies for interdependent infrastructures subjected to storm-induced flooding and climate change impacts such as SLR. Optimality is defined in this methodology as a maximum reduction in overall expected losses within a prescribed budget (compared to the expected losses in the case of doing nothing for protection/mitigation). Protective measures can include seawalls, barriers, artificial dunes, restoration of wetlands, raising individual buildings, sealing parts of the infrastructure, strategic retreat, insurance, and many more. The optimal protective strategy can be a combination of several protective measures implemented over space and time. The optimization process starts with parameterizing the protective measures. Storm-induced flooding and SLR, and their corresponding consequences,more »are estimated using a GIS-based subdivision-redistribution methodology (GISSR) developed by the authors for finding a rough solution in the first brute-force iterations of the optimization loop. A storm surge computational model called GeoClaw is subsequently used to simulate ensembles of synthetic storms in order to fine-tune and achieve the optimal solution. Damage loss, including economic impacts, is quantified based on calculated flood estimates. The suitability of the potential optimal solution is examined and assessed with input from stakeholders' interviews. It should be mentioned that the results and conclusions provided in this work depend on the assumptions made about future sea level rise (SLR). The authors acknowledge that there are other, more severe predictions for sea level rise (SLR), than the one used in this paper.« less
5. Evaluating impacts of coastal flooding on the transportation system using an activity-based travel demand model: a case study in Miami-Dade County, FL

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10172-w  

   Han, Yu ; Chen, Changjie ; Peng, Zhong-Ren ; Mozumder, Pallab ( January 2021 , Transportation)

   Recent climatic disasters have shown the vulnerability of transportation infrastructures against natural hazards. To understand the risk of coastal hazards on urban travel activities, this study presents an activity-based modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of storm surge on the transportation network under sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based algorithm is applied to generate population attributes and travel diaries in the model simulation. Flooding scenarios in 2045 are developed based on different adaptation standards under the 100-year storm surge and population projections are from the land-use conflict identification strategy (LUCIS) model. Our analysis indicates that about 29.3% of the transportation infrastructure, including areas of the US No. 1 highway, roadways in the south and southwest of the county, and bridges connecting Miami Beach area, will be damaged under the storm surge when a low-level adaptation standard is chosen. However, the high-level adaptation standard will reduce the vulnerable infrastructures to 12.4%. Furthermore, the total increased travel time of the low-level adaptation standard could be as high as twice of that in the high-level adaptation standard during peak morning hours. Our model results also reveal that the average increased travel time due to future storm surgemore »damage ranges between 14.2 and 62.8 min per trip.« less