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  1. Recent seismic and geodetic observations indicate that interseismic creep rate varies in both time and space. The spatial extent of creep pinpoints locked asperities, while its temporary accelerations, known as slow-slip events, may trigger earthquakes. Although the conditions promoting fault creep are well-studied, the mechanisms for initiating episodic slow-slip events are enigmatic. Here we investigate surface deformation measured by radar interferometry along the central San Andreas Fault between 2003 and 2010 to constrain the temporal evolution of creep. We show that slow-slip events are ensembles of localized creep bursts that aseismically rupture isolated fault compartments. Using a rate-and-state friction model, we show that effective normal stress is temporally variable on the fault, and support this using seismic observations. We propose that compaction-driven elevated pore fluid pressure in the hydraulically isolated fault zone and subsequent frictional dilation cause the observed slow-slip episodes. We further suggest that the 2004 Mw 6 Parkfield earthquake might have been triggered by a slow-slip event, which increased the Coulomb failure stress by up to 0.45 bar per year. This implies that while creeping segments are suggested to act as seismic rupture barriers, slow-slip events on these zones might promote seismicity on adjacent locked segments. 
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  2. Abstract

    We investigate the relative importance of injection and production on the spatial‐temporal distribution of induced seismicity at the Raft River geothermal field. We use time‐series of InSAR measurements to document surface deformation and calibrate a hydro‐mechanical model to estimate effective stress changes imparted by injection and production. Seismicity, located predominantly in the basement, is induced primarily by poroelastic stresses from cold water reinjection into a shallower reservoir. The poroelastic effect of production from a deeper reservoir is minimal and inconsistent with observed seismicity, as is pore‐pressure‐diffusion in the basement and along reactivated faults. We estimate an initial strength excess of ∼20 kPa in the basement and sedimentary cover, but the seismicity rate in the sedimentary cover is four times lower, reflecting lower density of seed‐points for earthquake nucleation. Our modeling workflow could be used to assess the impact of fluid extraction or injection on seismicity and help design or guide operations.

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