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We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the epidemic is severe, and relaxing restrictions when the epidemic is waning. Our primary results are that different instances of an epidemic with identical starting points have disparate outcomes and each epidemic temporal history is strongly fluctuating.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 7, 2025
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Abstract We investigate the occupancy statistics of birds on a wire. Birds land one by one on a wire and rest where they land. Whenever a newly arriving bird lands within a fixed distance of already resting birds, these resting birds immediately fly away. We determine the steady-state occupancy of the wire, the distribution of gaps between neighboring birds, and other basic statistical features of this process. We briefly discuss conjectures for corresponding observables in higher dimensions.more » « less