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Stalagmites and climate models reveal ITCZ shifts drove concurrent changes in Australian tropical cyclone and monsoon rainfall. 

Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined “Little Ice Age” (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming. 

Records of past climate can inform us on the natural range and mechanisms of climate change. In the arid Pacific southwestern United States (PSW), which includes southern California, there exist a variety of Holocene records that can be used to infer past winter conditions (moisture and/or temperature). Holocene records of summer climate, however, are rare from the PSW. In the future, climate changes due to anthropogenic forcing are expected to increase the severity of drought in the already water stressed PSW. Hot droughts are of considerable concern as summer temperatures rise. As a result, understanding how summer conditions changed in the past is critical to understanding future predictions under varied climate forcings. Here, we present a c. 10.9 kcal BP d18O.calcite/ record from Lake Elsinore, California, interpreted to reflect d18O.lake water/ values as controlled by over-water evaporation from summer-to-early fall. Our results reveal three millennial scale intervals: (1) the highly evaporative Early Holocene (10.55–6.65 kcal BP), (2) the less evaporative Mid-Holocene (6.65–2.65 kcal BP); and (3) the evaporative Late Holocene (2.65–0.55 kcal BP). These results are coupled with an inferred winter precipitation runoff (sand content) record from Kirby et al. (2010). Using these data together, we estimate the duration and severity of centennial-scale Holocene droughts and pluvials (e.g., high d18O.calcite/ values plus low sand content = drought and vice versa). Furthermore, the coupled d18O.calcite/ and sand data provide a generalized Holocene lake level history. The most severe, long-lasting droughts (i.e., maximum summer-to-early fall evaporation and minimum winter precipitation runoff) occur in the Early Holocene. Fewer, less severe, and shorter duration droughts occurred during the Mid-Holocene as pluvials became more common. Droughts return with less severity and duration in the Late Holocene. Notably, the Little Ice Age is characterized as the wettest period during the Late Holocene. 

Abstract Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradients. Here we present a 12,000 yr continuous U/Th-dated precipitation record from a Guatemalan speleothem showing that Central American rainfall increased within a 2000 yr period from a persistently dry state to an active convective regime at 9000 yr BP and has remained strong thereafter. Our data suggest that the Holocene evolution of Central American rainfall was driven by exceeding a temperature threshold in the nearby tropical oceans. The sensitivity of this region to slow changes in radiative forcing is thus strongly mediated by internal dynamics acting on much faster time scales. 

Abstract. Holocene climate reconstructions are useful for understanding the diversefeatures and spatial heterogeneity of past and future climate change. Herewe present a database of western North American Holocene paleoclimaterecords. The database gathers paleoclimate time series from 184 terrestrialand marine sites, including 381 individual proxy records. The records spanat least 4000 of the last 12 000 years (median duration of 10 725 years)and have been screened for resolution, chronologic control, and climatesensitivity. Records were included that reflect temperature, hydroclimate,or circulation features. The database is shared in the machine readableLinked Paleo Data (LiPD) format and includes geochronologic data forgenerating site-level time-uncertain ensembles. This publicly accessible andcurated collection of proxy paleoclimate records will have wide researchapplications, including, for example, investigations of the primary featuresof ocean–atmospheric circulation along the eastern margin of the NorthPacific and the latitudinal response of climate to orbital changes. Thedatabase is available for download at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12863843.v1 (Routson and McKay, 2020).