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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2023
  2. Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2023
  3. Abstract Gulia and Wiemer (2019; hereafter, GW2019) proposed a near-real-time monitoring system to discriminate between foreshocks and aftershocks. Our analysis (Dascher-Cousineau et al., 2020; hereinater, DC2020) tested the sensitivity of the proposed Foreshock Traffic-Light System output to parameter choices left to expert judgment for the 2019 Ridgecrest Mw 7.1 and 2020 Puerto Rico Mw 6.4 earthquake sequences. In the accompanying comment, Gulia and Wiemer (2021) suggest that at least six different methodological deviations lead to different pseudoprospective warning levels, particularly for the Ridgecrest aftershock sequence which they had separately evaluated. Here, we show that for four of the six claimed deviations, we conformed to the criteria outlined in GW2019. Two true deviations from the defined procedure are clarified and justified here. We conclude as we did originally, by emphasizing the influence of expert judgment on the outcome in the analysis.
  4. Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 9, 2023
  5. ABSTRACT The largest earthquake since 1954 to strike the state of Nevada, United States, ruptured on 15 May 2020 along the Monte Cristo range of west-central Nevada. The Mw 6.5 event involved predominantly left-lateral strike-slip faulting with minor normal components on three aligned east–west-trending faults that vary in strike by 23°. The kinematic rupture process is determined by joint inversion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, regional strong motions, and teleseismic P and SH waves, with the three-fault geometry being constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations, surface ruptures, and relocated aftershock distributions. The average rupture velocity is 1.5  km/s, with a peak slip of ∼1.6  m and a ∼20  s rupture duration. The seismic moment is 6.9×1018  N·m. Complex surface deformation is observed near the fault junction, with a deep near-vertical fault and a southeast-dipping fault at shallow depth on the western segment, along which normal-faulting aftershocks are observed. There is a shallow slip deficit in the Nevada ruptures, probably due to the immature fault system. The causative faults had not been previously identified and are located near the transition from the Walker Lane belt to the Basin and Range province. The east–west geometry of the system is consistentmore »with the eastward extension of the Mina Deflection of the Walker Lane north of the White Mountains.« less
  6. Abstract In the aftermath of a significant earthquake, seismologists are frequently asked questions by the media and public regarding possible interactions with recent prior events, including events at great distances away, along with prospects of larger events yet to come, both locally and remotely. For regions with substantial earthquake catalogs that provide information on the regional Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship, Omori temporal aftershock statistical behavior, and aftershock productivity parameters, probabilistic responses can be provided for likelihood of nearby future events of larger magnitude, as well as expected behavior of the overall aftershock sequence. However, such procedures generally involve uncertain extrapolations of parameterized equations to infrequent large events and do not provide answers to inquiries about long-range interactions, either retrospectively for interaction with prior remote large events or prospectively for interaction with future remote large events. Dynamic triggering that may be involved in such long-range interactions occurs, often with significant temporal delay, but is not well understood, making it difficult to respond to related inquiries. One approach to addressing such inquiries is to provide retrospective or prospective occurrence histories for large earthquakes based on global catalogs; while not providing quantitative understanding of any physical interaction, experience-based guidance on the (typically very low)more »chances of causal interactions can inform public understanding of likelihood of specific scenarios they are commonly very interested in.« less
  7. Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 14, 2023