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1. Updated concepts of seismic gaps and asperities to assess great earthquake hazard along South America

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216843119  

   Lay, Thorne; Nishenko, Stuart P. (December 2022, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   So far in this century, six very large–magnitude earthquakes ( M W ≥ 7.8) have ruptured separate portions of the subduction zone plate boundary of western South America along Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. Each source region had last experienced a very large earthquake from 74 to 261 y earlier. This history led to their designation in advance as seismic gaps with potential to host future large earthquakes. Deployments of geodetic and seismic monitoring instruments in several of the seismic gaps enhanced resolution of the subsequent faulting processes, revealing preevent patterns of geodetic slip deficit accumulation and heterogeneous coseismic slip on the megathrust fault. Localized regions of large slip, or asperities, appear to have influenced variability in how each source region ruptured relative to prior events, as repeated ruptures have had similar, but not identical slip distributions. We consider updated perspectives of seismic gaps, asperities, and geodetic locking to assess current very large earthquake hazard along the South American subduction zone, noting regions of particular concern in northern Ecuador and Colombia (1958/1906 rupture zone), southeastern Peru (southeasternmost 1868 rupture zone), north Chile (1877 rupture zone), and north-central Chile (1922 rupture zone) that have large geodetic slip deficit measurements and long intervals (from 64 to 154 y) since prior large events have struck those regions. Expanded geophysical measurements onshore and offshore in these seismic gaps may provide critical information about the strain cycle and fault stress buildup late in the seismic cycle in advance of the future great earthquakes that will eventually strike each region. 

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2. Anatomy of strike-slip fault tsunami genesis

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2025632118  

   Elbanna, Ahmed; Abdelmeguid, Mohamed; Ma, Xiao; Amlani, Faisal; Bhat, Harsha S; Synolakis, Costas; Rosakis, Ares J (May 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Tsunami generation from earthquake-induced seafloor deformations has long been recognized as a major hazard to coastal areas. Strike-slip faulting has generally been considered insufficient for triggering large tsunamis, except through the generation of submarine landslides. Herein, we demonstrate that ground motions due to strike-slip earthquakes can contribute to the generation of large tsunamis (>1 m), under rather generic conditions. To this end, we developed a computational framework that integrates models for earthquake rupture dynamics with models of tsunami generation and propagation. The three-dimensional time-dependent vertical and horizontal ground motions from spontaneous dynamic rupture models are used to drive boundary motions in the tsunami model. Our results suggest that supershear ruptures propagating along strike-slip faults, traversing narrow and shallow bays, are prime candidates for tsunami generation. We show that dynamic focusing and the large horizontal displacements, characteristic of strike-slip earthquakes on long faults, are critical drivers for the tsunami hazard. These findings point to intrinsic mechanisms for sizable tsunami generation by strike-slip faulting, which do not require complex seismic sources, landslides, or complicated bathymetry. Furthermore, our model identifies three distinct phases in the tsunamic motion, an instantaneous dynamic phase, a lagging coseismic phase, and a postseismic phase, each of which may affect coastal areas differently. We conclude that near-source tsunami hazards and risk from strike-slip faulting need to be re-evaluated. 

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3. Dueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37063-1  

   Biemiller, J.; Gabriel, A.-A.; Ulrich, T. (December 2023, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Despite a lack of modern large earthquakes on shallowly dipping normal faults, Holocene M w  > 7 low-angle normal fault (LANF; dip<30°) ruptures are preserved paleoseismically and inferred from historical earthquake and tsunami accounts. Even in well-recorded megathrust earthquakes, the effects of non-linear off-fault plasticity and dynamically reactivated splay faults on shallow deformation and surface displacements, and thus hazard, remain elusive. We develop data-constrained 3D dynamic rupture models of the active Mai’iu LANF that highlight how multiple dynamic shallow deformation mechanisms compete during large LANF earthquakes. We show that shallowly-dipping synthetic splays host more coseismic slip and limit shallow LANF rupture more than steeper antithetic splays. Inelastic hanging-wall yielding localizes into subplanar shear bands indicative of newly initiated splay faults, most prominently above LANFs with thick sedimentary basins. Dynamic splay faulting and sediment failure limit shallow LANF rupture, modulating coseismic subsidence patterns, near-shore slip velocities, and the seismic and tsunami hazards posed by LANF earthquakes. 

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4. The Impact of 3D Structure on Coseismic Coastal Land‐Level Change and Tsunami Generation in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117783  

   Dunham, Audrey M; Kim, Jeonghyeop; Wirth, Erin; Schmidt, David; LeVeque, Randall J; Wei, Yong; Adams, Loyce M; Pollitz, Fred (December 2025, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Estimates of coseismic vertical displacements from past and potential future subduction zone earthquakes provide critical constraints on regional seismic and tsunami hazard. Many studies use elastic homogeneous half‐space models to calculate vertical displacements from a specified earthquake slip distribution, neglecting complexities of 3D structure in subduction zone settings. Here, we use 3D ground motion simulations of potential Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes to investigate the impact of realistic 3D Earth structure on estimated vertical displacements. We show that offshore uplift increases when including 3D structure due to high fault slip in low‐rigidity accretionary wedge sediments and coastal subsidence decreases due to higher rigidity material at depth. These larger offshore uplifts cause increased tsunami maximum wave heights, and coastal subsidence at paleoseismic sites decreases on average by ∼17 cm, or ∼60%, which can have important implications for the amplitude and extent of slip in earthquake scenarios developed based on paleoseismic data constraints. 

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5. Coseismic Slip Model of the 19 September 2022 Mw 7.6 Michoacán, Mexico, Earthquake: A Quasi-Repeat of the 1973 Mw 7.6 Rupture

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220042  

   Liu, Chengli; Lay, Thorne; Bai, Yefei; He, Ping; Xiong, Xiong (April 2023, The Seismic Record)

   Abstract On 19 September 2022, a major earthquake struck the northwestern Michoacán segment along the Mexican subduction zone. A slip model is obtained that satisfactorily explains geodetic, teleseismic, and tsunami observations of the 2022 event. The preferred model has a compact large-slip patch that extends up-dip and northwestward from the hypocenter and directly overlaps a 1973 Mw 7.6 rupture. Slip is concentrated offshore and below the coast at depths from 10 to 30 km with a peak value of ∼2.9 m, and there is no detected coseismic slip near the trench. The total seismic moment is 3.1×1020  N·m (Mw 7.6), 72% of which is concentrated in the first 30 s. Most aftershocks are distributed in an up-dip area of the mainshock that has small coseismic slip, suggesting near-complete strain release in the large-slip patch. Teleseismic P waveforms of the 2022 and 1973 earthquakes are similar in duration and complexity with high cross-correlation coefficients of 0.68–0.98 for long P to PP signal time windows, indicating that the 2022 earthquake is a quasi-repeat of the 1973 earthquake, possibly indicating persistent frictional properties. Both the events produced more complex P waveforms than comparable size events along Guerrero and Oaxaca, reflecting differences in patchy locking of the Mexican megathrust. 

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