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Abstract In order to study potential impacts arising from climate change, future projections of numerical model output often must be calibrated to be comparable to observations. Rather than calibrating the data values themselves, we propose a novel statistical calibration method for extremes that assumes there exists a linear relationship between parameters associated with model output and parameters associated with observations. This approach allows us to capture uncertainty in both parameter estimates and the linear calibration, which we achieve via bootstrap. To focus on extreme behavior, we assume both model output and observations have distributions composed of a mixture model combining a Weibull distribution with a generalized Pareto distribution for the tail. A simulation study shows good coverage rates. We apply the method to project future daily-averaged river runoff at the Purgatoire River in southeastern Colorado. 

Abstract SnowModel-LG reconstructs snow depth and density over sea ice, explicitly resolving important snow sinks like blowing snow sublimation, static surface sublimation and melt, but not snow-ice formation. To examine snow sinks on level sea ice, we coupled SnowModel-LG with HIGHTSI, a 1-D thermodynamic sea-ice model, to create SMLG_HS. SMLG_HS simulations of snow depth and level ice thickness were evaluated against high-resolution airborne observations from the western Arctic, highlighting the importance of snow mass redistribution processes, i.e. snow’s tendency to leave level ice and accumulate over deformed ice due to wind-induced redistribution. Not accounting for snow mass redistribution, SMLG_HS overestimates snow depth on level ice, resulting in underestimation of level ice thickness and overestimation of snow-ice thickness. Our case study shows that snow depth on level ice needs to be reduced by 40% to simulate both snow depth and level ice thickness realistically in the western Arctic in April 2017. An independent analysis of snow volume distribution between level and deformed sea ice using airborne radar observations supported the model results and revealed a linear relationship that enables estimating the amount of snow remaining on level ice at the end of winter based on the amount of ice deformation. 

Abstract Snow conditions are changing rapidly across our planet, which has important implications for wildlife managers. In Alaska, USA, the later arrival of snow is challenging wildlife managers' ability to conduct aerial fall (autumn) moose (Alces alces) surveys. Complete snow cover is required to reliably detect and count moose using visual observation from an aircraft. With inadequate snow to help generate high‐quality moose survey data, it is difficult for managers to determine if they are effectively meeting population goals and optimizing hunting opportunities. We quantified past relationships and projected future trends between snow conditions and moose survey success across 7 different moose management areas in Alaska using 32 years (1987–2019) of moose survey data and modeled snow data. We found that modeled mean snow depth was 15 cm (SD = 11) when moose surveys were initiated, and snow depths were greater in years when surveys were completed compared to years when surveys were canceled. Further, we found that mean snow depth toward the beginning of the survey season (1 November) was the best predictor of whether a survey was completed in any given year. Based on modeled conditions, the trend in mean snow depth on 1 November declined from 1980 to 2020 in 5 out of 7 survey areas. These findings, coupled with future projections, indicated that by 2055, the delayed onset of adequate snow accumulation in the fall will prevent the completion of moose surveys over roughly 60% of Alaska's managed moose areas at this time of the year. Our findings can be used by wildlife managers to guide decisions related to the future reliability of aerial fall moose surveys and help to identify timelines for development of alternate measurement and monitoring methods. 

This project used cutting-edge soundscape observations and analyses to quantify the influence of changing environmental dynamics and increasing anthropogenic activity on the behavior and phenology of migratory caribou, waterfowl, and songbird communities in Arctic-boreal Alaska and northwestern Canada. We used acoustic and camera-trap monitoring methods to evaluate wildlife responses in novel and non-invasive ways across broad spatial ranges during crucial seasons. Our study combined field observations, modeling, and analyses included (1) soundscape measurements, (2) camera-trap observations, (3) automated soundscape analyses, (4) analyses of camera-trap caribou observations, (5) high-resolution modeling of environmental variables, and (6) statistical analyses of wildlife occupancy, diversity, and phenology. This “Environmental Data” dataset package describes and includes the high-resolution environmental variables used in this study. 

Repeated transects have become the backbone of spatially distributed ice and snow thickness measurements crucial for understanding of ice mass balance. Here we detail the transects at the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) 2019–2020, which represent the first such measurements collected across an entire season. Compared with similar historical transects, the snow at MOSAiC was thin (mean depths of approximately 0.1–0.3 m), while the sea ice was relatively thick first-year ice (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI). SYI was of two distinct types: relatively thin level ice formed from surfaces with extensive melt pond cover, and relatively thick deformed ice. On level SYI, spatial signatures of refrozen melt ponds remained detectable in January. At the beginning of winter the thinnest ice also had the thinnest snow, with winter growth rates of thin ice (0.33 m month−1 for FYI, 0.24 m month−1 for previously ponded SYI) exceeding that of thick ice (0.2 m month−1). By January, FYI already had a greater modal ice thickness (1.1 m) than previously ponded SYI (0.9 m). By February, modal thickness of all SYI and FYI became indistinguishable at about 1.4 m. The largest modal thicknesses were measured in May at 1.7 m. Transects included deformed ice, where largest volumes of snow accumulated by April. The remaining snow on level ice exhibited typical spatial heterogeneity in the form of snow dunes. Spatial correlation length scales for snow and sea ice ranged from 20 to 40 m or 60 to 90 m, depending on the sampling direction, which suggests that the known anisotropy of snow dunes also manifests in spatial patterns in sea ice thickness. The diverse snow and ice thickness data obtained from the MOSAiC transects represent an invaluable resource for model and remote sensing product development. 

Abstract Upper Indus Basin (UIB) streamflow originates largely from glacier and snow melt in the upstream Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges and is extremely vulnerable because of its projected climate changes, dense populations, and hydropolitical tensions. Accurate knowledge of streamflow constituents is required for resilient water resources management; this is precluded by a paucity of measurement as well as climatological and topographic complexity. Here we integrate citizen scientist acquired geochemical samples, collected from October 2018 through September 2019 in the Shimshal watershed of the Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan, with Sentinel‐1 (S1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR)‐derived wet snow maps, to better understand streamflow constituents for the high altitude and heavily glaciated catchment. We use Bayesian end‐member mixture analysis to separate river flows into baseflow and meltwater constituents, using fixed and time‐variant melt end‐member values. We compare river hydrograph separation results with S1 wet snow time series maps for the same timeframe. We then utilize S1 imagery to inform end‐member mixture analysis to separate meltwaters into snow and glacier melt. For the Shimshal catchment, we find that about 85% of annual river flows are derived from snow and glacier melt; 45% of annual flows are derived from snow melt and 40% glacier melt. Engaged and committed citizen scientists enabled geochemical sample collection and analysis on a significant temporal and spatial scale. In the future, co‐produced knowledge that both implements local expertise and that is also planned and utilized by diverse stakeholders may increase climatological awareness and resilience in the UIB. 

Inuit hunters and meteorologists alike pay close attention to weather and weather changes, with deep understandings. This paper describes a long-time research project based in Kangiqtugaapik (Clyde River), Nunavut, where a research team of Inuit and visiting scientists have combined information and knowledge from a community-based weather station network, on-going interviews and discussions, and extensive travel (both Arctic fieldwork and visits to southern universities) to co-produce knowledge related to human–weather relationships and weather information needs and uses in one Nunavut community. The project uses the concept of “HREVs”, human-relevant environmental variables — complex, synthesis variables that, used in conjunction with a host of social variables, assist in informing safe land travel and activities. This work, including linking Inuit knowledge and environmental modeling, can be expanded to not only understand human–weather relationships more broadly and in other locations but also provide insights into the process of building diverse research teams and knowledge co-production. Inuit angunasuktiit amma silalirijiit tamarmik ujjiqsuttiasuunguvut silamit amma silaup asijjiqpallianingani, tukisiumaniqarjuaqłutik. Una paippaangujuq unikkaarivuq akuniujumi qaujitasaqtaunirmut piliriangujumi Kangiqtugaapik (Clyde River), Nunavummi, qaujisaqtiujuni katinngajuni Inungni amma pularaqtunut qaujisaqtiujunut katirisimajuni uqausiksani amma qaujimaniujumi nunalingni−tunngavilingmi silalirivvingmi tusaumatittiniujumi, apiqsuqtaunginnaqtuni amma uqallangniujuni, amma aullaaqsimarjuaqłutik (tamakkit Ukiuqtaqtumi iniujumi piliriniujumi amma pulararniujunut qallunaat nunanganni silattuqsarvigjuangujunut) saqqitittiqatigiingnirmut qaujimaniujumi pijjutiqaqtumut inungnut−silamut piliriqatigiingniujuni amma silamut uqausiksani pijariaqarniujunut amma aturniujunut atausirmi Nunavummi nunaliujumi. Piliriangujuq atusuunguvuq isumagijauniujumi “HREVs”, inungnut-atuutilingnut avatimut ajjigiinnginniujunut – nalunaqtuni, katinniujuni isumagijauniujuni aaqqiksinirnut piliri−jusiujumi ajjigiinnginniujuni, atuqatiqaqłuni ilagijaujumi inuuqatigiingujunut ajjigiinnginniujunit, ikajuqsuisuunguvuq aaqqiksuinirmi attananngittumi nunami aullaarniujumi amma qanuiliurniujunut. Una piliriniujuq ilaqaqtumi kasuqatiqarnirmi inuit qaujimajanginni amma avatimut uukturautiqarnirmi, angigligiaqtaujunnaqpuq tukisiumanituangunngittumi inungt-silamut piliriqatigiingniujumi tauvunngaujjiniujumi ammalu asinginni iniujunut, kisiani tunisijunnaqpuq tukisirjuarniujuni piliriniujuni sananirmut ajjigiinngiruluujaqtuni qaujisaqtiujunut katinngajuni amma qaujimanirmut saqqitittiqatigiingniujumi.