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These data represent a self-organizing map (SOM) classification of all trans-Atlantic integrated dust fluxes (IDT) between June-July 1981-2020 as presented in: Miller, P. W., and C. Ramseyer, In press: The relationship between the Saharan Air Layer, convective environmental conditions, and precipitation in Puerto Rico. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.  Each daily IDT field is paired to one of 12 discrete pathways in idt_bmus_junjul.csv. The mean composite IDT over the tropical North Atlantic for each of these 12 patterns, as well as the mean composite Galvez-Davison Index (ERS_idt_node_gdi_1981_2020_junjul.nc) and mean composite precipitation over Puerto Rico (ERS_idt_node_prcp_1981_2020_junjul.nc) for the same node-date pairings are also provided. See the above-referenced manuscript for more details. 

Abstract Process‐based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH₄) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site‐level patterns of freshwater wetland CH₄fluxes (FCH₄) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model‐observation disagreements are mainly at multi‐day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH₄variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH₄production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH₄variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH₄model developments. 

Decisions as to whether to continue with an ongoing activity or to switch to an alternative are a constant in an animal’s natural world, and in particular underlie foraging behavior and performance in food preference tests. Stimuli experienced by the animal both impact the choice and are themselves impacted by the choice, in a dynamic back and forth. Here, we present model neural circuits, based on spiking neurons, in which the choice to switch away from ongoing behavior instantiates this back and forth, arising as a state transition in neural activity. We analyze two classes of circuit, which differ in whether state transitions result from a loss of hedonic input from the stimulus (an “entice to stay” model) or from aversive stimulus-input (a “repel to leave” model). In both classes of model, we find that the mean time spent sampling a stimulus decreases with increasing value of the alternative stimulus, a fact that we linked to the inclusion of depressing synapses in our model. The competitive interaction is much greater in “entice to stay” model networks, which has qualitative features of the marginal value theorem, and thereby provides a framework for optimal foraging behavior. We offer suggestions as to how our models could be discriminatively tested through the analysis of electrophysiological and behavioral data. 

Abstract In groundwater-limited settings, such as Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands, societal, ecological, and agricultural water needs depend on regular rainfall. Though long-range numerical weather predication models explicitly predict precipitation, such quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) critically failed to detect the historic 2015 Caribbean drought. Consequently, this work examines the feasibility of developing a drought early warning tool using the Gálvez–Davison index (GDI), a tropical convective potential index, derived from the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). Drought forecasts are focused on Puerto Rico’s early rainfall season (ERS; April–July), which is susceptible to intrusions of strongly stable Saharan air and represents the largest source of hydroclimatic variability for the island. A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–land model, the CFSv2 can plausibly detect the transatlantic advection of low-GDI Saharan air with multimonth lead times. The mean ERS GDI is calculated from semidaily CFSv2 forecasts beginning 1 January of each year between 2012 and 2018 and monitored as the initialization approaches 1 April. The CFSv2 demonstrates a broad region of statistically significant correlations with observed GDI across the eastern Caribbean up to 30 days prior to the ERS. During 2015, the CFSv2 forecast a low-GDI tongue extending across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean with 60–90 days lead time and placed Puerto Rico’s 2015 ERS beneath the 15th percentile of all 1982–2018 ERS forecasts with up to 30 days lead time. A preliminary GDI-based QPF tool tested herein is a statistically significant improvement over climatology for the driest years.