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The morphology of river levees and floodplains is an important control on river-floodplain connectivity within a river system under sub-bankfull conditions, and this morphology changes as a river approaches the coast due to backwater influence. Floodplain width can also vary along a river, and floodplain constrictions in the form of bluffs adjacent to the river can influence inundation extent. However, the relative controls of backwater-influenced floodplain topography and bluff topography on river-floodplain connectivity have not been studied. We measure discharge along the lower Trinity River (Texas, USA) during high flow to determine which floodplain features are associated with major river-floodplain flow exchanges. We develop a numerical model representing the transition to backwater-dominated river hydraulics, and quantify downstream changes in levee channelization, inundation, and fluxes along the river-floodplain boundary. We model passive particle transport through the floodplain, and compute residence times as a function of location where particles enter the floodplain. We find that bluff topography controls flow from the floodplain back to the river, whereas levee topography facilitates flow to the floodplain through floodplain channels. Return flow to the river is limited to locations just upstream of bluffs, even under receding flood conditions, whereas outflow locations are numerous and occur all along the river. Residence times for particles entering the floodplain far upstream of bluffs are as much as two orders of magnitude longer than those for particles entering short distances upstream of bluffs. This study can benefit floodplain ecosystem management and restoration plans by informing on the key locations of lateral exchange and variable residence time distributions in river-floodplain systems.

Deltas exhibit spatially and temporally variable subsidence, including vertical displacement due to movement along fault planes. Faulting‐induced subsidence perturbs delta‐surface gradients, potentially causing distributary networks to shift sediment dispersal within the landscape. Sediment dispersal restricted to part of the landscape could hinder billion‐dollar investments aiming to restore delta land, making faulting‐induced subsidence a potentially significant, yet unconstrained hazard to these projects. In this study, we modeled a range of displacement events in disparate deltaic environments, and observe that a channelized connection with the displaced area determines whether a distributary network reorganizes. When this connection exists, the magnitude of distributary network reorganization is predicted by a ratio relating dimensions of faulting‐induced subsidence and channel geometry. We use this ratio to extend results to real‐world deltas and assess hazards to deltaic‐land building projects.

Despite a multitude of models predicting sediment transport dynamics in open‐channel flow, self‐organized vertical density stratification that dampens flow turbulence due to the interaction between fluid and sediment has not been robustly validated with field observations from natural rivers. Turbulence‐suppressing density stratification can develop in channels with low channel‐bed slope and high sediment concentration. As the Yellow River, China, maintains one of the highest sediment loads in the world for a low sloping system, this location is ideal for documenting particle and fluid interactions that give rise to density stratification. Herein, we present analyses from a study conducted over a range of discharge conditions (e.g., low flow, rising limb, and flood peak) from a lower reach of the Yellow River, whereby water samples were collected at targeted depths to measure sediment concentration and, simultaneously, velocity measurements were collected throughout the flow depth. Importantly, sediment concentration varied by an order of magnitude between base and flood flows. By comparing measured concentration and velocity profiles to predictive models, we show that the magnitude of density stratification increases with sediment concentration. Furthermore, a steady‐state calculation of sediment suspension is used to determine that sediment diffusivity increases with grain size. Finally, we calculate concentration and velocity profiles, showing that steady‐state sediment suspensions are reliably predicted over a range of stratification conditions larger than had been previously documented in natural river flows. We determine that the magnitude of density stratification can be predicted by a function considering an entrainment parameter, sediment concentration, and bed slope.

Fine-grained sediment (grain size under 2,000 μm) builds floodplains and deltas, and shapes the coastlines where much of humanity lives. However, a universal, physically based predictor of sediment flux for fine-grained rivers remains to be developed. Herein, a comprehensive sediment load database for fine-grained channels, ranging from small experimental flumes to megarivers, is used to find a predictive algorithm. Two distinct transport regimes emerge, separated by a discontinuous transition for median bed grain size within the very fine sand range (81 to 154 μm), whereby sediment flux decreases by up to 100-fold for coarser sand-bedded rivers compared to river with silt and very fine sand beds. Evidence suggests that the discontinuous change in sediment load originates from a transition of transport mode between mixed suspended bed load transport and suspension-dominated transport. Events that alter bed sediment size near the transition may significantly affect fluviocoastal morphology by drastically changing sediment flux, as shown by data from the Yellow River, China, which, over time, transitioned back and forth 3 times between states of high and low transport efficiency in response to anthropic activities.

Climate change is raising sea levels across the globe. On river deltas, sea‐level rise (SLR) may result in land loss, saline intrusion into groundwater aquifers, and other problems that adversely impact coastal communities. There is significant uncertainty surrounding future SLR trajectories and magnitudes, even over decadal timescales. Given this uncertainty, numerical modeling is needed to explore how different SLR projections may impact river delta evolution. In this work, we apply the pyDeltaRCM numerical model to simulate 350 years of deltaic evolution under three different SLR trajectories: steady rise, an abrupt change in SLR rate, and a gradual acceleration of SLR. For each SLR trajectory, we test a set of six final SLR magnitudes between 5 and 40 mm/yr, in addition to control runs with no SLR. We find that both surface channel dynamics as well as aspects of the subsurface change in response to higher rates of SLR, even over centennial timescales. In particular, increased channel mobility due to SLR corresponds to higher sand connectivity in the subsurface. Both the trajectory and magnitude of SLR change influence the evolution of the delta surface, which in turn modifies the structure of the subsurface. We identify correlations between surface and subsurface properties, and find that inferences of subsurface structure from the current surface configuration should be limited to time spans over which the sea level forcing is approximately steady. As a result, this work improves our ability to predict future delta evolution and subsurface connectivity as sea levels continue to rise.

Reduced sediment supply and rising sea levels are driving land submergence on deltas worldwide, motivating engineering practices that divert water and sediment to sustain coastal landforms. However, lobe response following channel abandonment by diversions has not been constrained by field‐scale studies. Herein, avulsion and engineered diversion scenarios are explored for the Huanghe delta (China), where three lobes were abandoned in the last 40 yr. Two lobes were completely cut off by diversions, and one naturally by an avulsion. Shoreline retreat rates are strikingly different: ∼400 m/yr for diverted lobes and ∼90 m/yr for avulsed lobe. We hypothesize that this variability is linked to vegetal cover across lobes, and therefore the capacity to buffer hydrodynamic reworking of shoreface sediment. Furthermore, the vegetal cover is related to lobe salinity and elevation, which vary by abandonment style. We offer this as a case study to inform about the efficacy of future delta diversions.

Channel bifurcations control the distribution of water and sediment in deltas, and the routing of these materials facilitates land building in coastal regions. Yet few practical methods exist to provide accurate predictions of flow partitioning at multiple bifurcations within a distributary channel network. Herein, multiple nodal relations that predict flow partitioning at individual bifurcations, utilizing various hydraulic and channel planform parameters, are tested against field data collected from the Selenga River delta, Russia. The data set includes 2.5 months of time‐continuous, synoptic measurements of water and sediment discharge partitioning covering a flood hydrograph. Results show that width, sinuosity, and bifurcation angle are the best remotely sensed, while cross‐sectional area and flow depth are the best field measured nodal relation variables to predict flow partitioning. These nodal relations are incorporated into a graph model, thus developing a generalized framework that predicts partitioning of water discharge and total, suspended, and bedload sediment discharge in deltas. Results from the model tested well against field data produced for the Wax Lake, Selenga, and Lena River deltas. When solely using remotely sensed variables, the generalized framework is especially suitable for modeling applications in large‐scale delta systems, where data and field accessibility are limited.

River deltas grow by repeating cycles of lobe development punctuated by channel avulsions, so that over time, lobes amalgamate to produce a composite landform. Existing models have shown that backwater hydrodynamics are important in avulsion dynamics, but the effect of lobe progradation on avulsion frequency and location has yet to be explored. Herein, a quasi‐2‐D numerical model incorporating channel avulsion and lobe development cycles is developed. The model is validated by the well‐constrained case of a prograding lobe on the Yellow River delta, China. It is determined that with lobe progradation, avulsion frequency decreases, and avulsion length increases, relative to conditions where a delta lobe does not prograde. Lobe progradation lowers the channel bed gradient, which results in channel aggradation over the delta topset that is focused farther upstream, shifting the avulsion location upstream. Furthermore, the frequency and location of channel avulsions are sensitive to the threshold in channel bed superelevation that triggers an avulsion. For example, avulsions occur less frequently with a larger superelevation threshold, resulting in greater lobe progradation and avulsions that occur farther upstream. When the delta lobe length prior to avulsion is a moderate fraction of the backwater length (0.3–), the interplay between variable water discharge and lobe progradation together set the avulsion location, and a model capturing both processes is necessary to predict avulsion timing and location. While this study is validated by data from the Yellow River delta, the numerical framework is rooted in physical relationships and can therefore be extended to other deltaic systems.