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Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas. 

Summary Wood anatomical traits shape a xylem segment’s hydraulic efficiency and resistance to embolism spread due to declining water potential. It has been known for decades that variations in conduit connectivity play a role in altering xylem hydraulics. However, evaluating the precise effect of conduit connectivity has been elusive. The objective here is to establish an analytical linkage between conduit connectivity and grouping and tissue‐scale hydraulics.It is hypothesized that an increase in conduit connectivity brings improved resistance to embolism spread due to increased hydraulic pathway redundancy. However, an increase in conduit connectivity could also reduce resistance due to increased speed of embolism spread with respect to pressure. We elaborate on this trade‐off using graph theory, percolation theory and computational modeling of xylem. The results are validated using anatomical measurements ofAcerbranch xylem.Considering only species with vessels, increases in connectivity improve resistance to embolism spread without negatively affecting hydraulic conductivity. The often measured grouping index fails to capture the totality of the effect of conduit connectivity on xylem hydraulics.Variations in xylem network characteristics, such as conduit connectivity, might explain why hypothesized trends among woody species, such as the ‘safety‐efficiency’ trade‐off hypothesis, are weaker than expected.