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Abstract Recent measurements of the Milky Way rotation curve found a sharp decline at around 15–20 kpc from the center of the Galaxy, suggesting that the Galactic dark matter halo is much less massive than predicted by other dynamical tracers. To address this tension, we study the validity of the assumptions made in calculating the Milky Way’s rotation curve. To do so, we apply the Jeans equation, the current standard approach of measuring rotation curves, to three cosmological zoom-in simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies from theFIRE-2 Latte suite. Using synthetic Gaia surveys, we replicate the sample selection process and calculation employed in measuring the Milky Way rotation curve. We examine four failure modes of this calculation and find that the measured curves deviate from the true curve by 5%–20% rather than below 5%, as estimated by previous works. Interestingly, there is a large galaxy-to-galaxy variance, and different systematics dominate different galaxies. We rederive the Milky Way’s dark matter density profile with the rotation curve while incorporating systematics from the simulations. The posterior distribution of the density profiles is consistent with a fiducial Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile when assuming a generalized NFW profile for dark matter. We find that the virial mass is $7.32_{-1.53}^{+1.98}\times 10^{11}$ M_⊙, consistent with other probes of the Milky Way’s mass. However, we recommend that the field move away from relying solely on the rotation curve when studying the dark matter profile and adopt methods that incorporate additional probes and/or do not heavily depend on assumptions described in this study. 

ABSTRACT The dark matter (DM) distribution in dwarf galaxies provides crucial insights into both structure formation and the particle nature of DM. GraphNPE (Graph Neural Posterior Estimator), first introduced in Nguyen et al. (2023), is a novel simulation-based inference framework that combines graph neural networks and normalizing flows to infer the DM density profile from line-of-sight stellar velocities. Here, we apply GraphNPE to satellite dwarf galaxies in the FIRE-2 Latte simulation suite of Milky Way-mass haloes, testing it against both Cold and Self-Interacting DM scenarios. Our method demonstrates superior precision compared to conventional Jeans-based approaches, recovering DM density profiles to within the 95 per cent confidence level even in systems with as few as 30 tracers. Moreover, we present the first evaluation of mass modelling methods in constraining two key parameters from realistic simulations: the peak circular velocity, $$V_\mathrm{max}$$, and the peak virial mass, $$M_\mathrm{200m}^\mathrm{peak}$$. Using only line-of-sight velocities, GraphNPE can reliably recover both $$V_\mathrm{max}$$ and $$M_\mathrm{200m}^\mathrm{peak}$$ within our quoted uncertainties, including those experiencing tidal effects ($$\gtrsim 63~{{\rm per\ cent}}$$ of systems are recovered within our 68 per cent confidence intervals and $$\gtrsim 92~{{\rm per\ cent}}$$ within our 95 per cent confidence intervals). The method achieves $$10-20~{{\rm per\ cent}}$$ accuracy in $$V_\mathrm{max}$$ recovery, while $$M_\mathrm{200m}^\mathrm{peak}$$ is recovered to $$0.1-0.4 \, \mathrm{dex}$$ accuracy. This work establishes GraphNPE as a robust tool for inferring DM density profiles in dwarf galaxies, offering promising avenues for constraining DM models. The framework’s potential extends beyond this study, as it can be adapted to non-spherical and disequilibrium models, showcasing the broader utility of simulation-based inference and graph-based learning in astrophysics. 

Abstract In this work, we study how the abundance and dynamics of populations of disrupting satellite galaxies change systematically as a function of host galaxy properties. We apply a theoretical model of the phase-mixing process to classify intact satellite galaxies and stellar streamlike and shell-like debris in ∼1500 Milky Way–mass systems generated by a semi-analytic galaxy formation code,SatGen. In particular, we test the effect of host galaxy halo mass, disk mass, ratio of disk scale height to length, and stellar feedback model on disrupting satellite populations. We find that the counts of tidal debris are consistent across all host galaxy models, within a given host mass range, and that all models can have streamlike debris on low-energy orbits, consistent with that observed around the Milky Way. However, we find a preference for streamlike debris on lower-energy orbits in models with a thicker (lower-density) host disk or on higher-energy orbits in models with a more massive host disk. Importantly, we observe significant halo-to-halo variance across all models. These results highlight the importance of simulating and observing large samples of Milky Way–mass galaxies and accounting for variations in host properties when using disrupting satellites in studies of near-field cosmology. 

Abstract While galaxy rotation curves (RCs) provide one of the most powerful methods for measuring dark matter profiles in the inner regions of rotation-supported galaxies, at the dwarf scale there are factors that can complicate this analysis. Given the expectation of a universal profile in dark-matter-only simulations, the diversity of the observed RCs has become an often-discussed issue in Lambda cold dark matter cosmology on galactic scales. We analyze a suite of Feedback in Realistic Environments simulations of 10¹⁰–10¹²M_⊙halos with standard cold dark matter and compare the true circular velocity to RC reconstructions. We find that, for galaxies with well-ordered gaseous disks, the measured RC may deviate from the true circular velocity by at most ∼10% within the radius of the disk. However, nonequilibrium behaviors, noncircular motions, and nonthermal and nonkinetic stresses may cause much larger discrepancies, of ∼50% or more. Most RC reconstructions underestimate the true circular velocity, while some reconstructions transiently overestimate it in the central few kiloparsecs, due to dynamical phenomena. We further demonstrate that the features that contribute to these failures are not always visibly obvious in HIobservations. If such dwarf galaxies are included in galaxy catalogs, they may give rise to the appearance of “artificial” RC diversity that does not reflect the true variation in underlying dark matter profiles. 

ABSTRACT We investigate the central density structure of dark matter haloes in cold dark matter (CDM) and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models using simulations that are part of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (fire) project. For simulated haloes of dwarf galaxy scale ($$M_{\rm halo}(z=0)\approx 10^{10}\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$$), we study the central structure in both dissipationless simulations and simulations with full fire-2 galaxy formation physics. As has been demonstrated extensively in recent years, both baryonic feedback and self-interactions can convert central cusps into cores, with the former process doing so in a manner that depends sensitively on stellar mass at fixed $$M_{\rm halo}$$. Whether the two processes (baryonic feedback and self-interactions) are distinguishable, however, remains an open question. Here we demonstrate that, compared to feedback-induced cores, SIDM-induced cores transition more quickly from the central region of constant density to the falling density at larger radial scales. This result holds true even when including identical galaxy formation modelling in SIDM simulations as is used in CDM simulations, since self-interactions dominate over galaxy formation physics in establishing the central structure of SIDM haloes in this mass regime. The change in density profile slope as a function of radius therefore holds the potential to discriminate between self-interactions and galaxy formation physics as the driver of core formation in dwarf galaxies. 

Abstract We utilize the cosmological volume simulation FIREbox to investigate how a galaxy’s environment influences its size and dark matter content. Our study focuses on approximately 1200 galaxies (886 central and 332 satellite halos) in the low-mass regime, with stellar masses between 10⁶and 10⁹M_⊙. We analyze the size–mass relation (r₅₀–M_⋆), the inner dark matter mass–stellar mass ( $M_{\mathrm{DM}}^{50}$ –M_⋆) relation, and the halo mass–stellar mass (M_halo–M_⋆) relation. At fixed stellar mass, we find that galaxies experiencing stronger tidal influences, indicated by higher Perturbation Indices (PI > 1) are generally larger and have lower halo masses relative to their counterparts with lower Perturbation Indices (PI < 1). Applying a Random Forest regression model, we show that both the environment (PI) and halo mass (M_halo) are significant predictors of a galaxy’s relative size and dark matter content. Notably, becauseM_halois also strongly affected by the environment, our findings indicate that environmental conditions not only influence galactic sizes and relative inner dark matter content directly, but also indirectly, through their impact on halo mass. Our results highlight a critical interplay between environmental factors and halo mass in shaping galaxy properties, affirming the environment as a fundamental driver in galaxy formation and evolution. 

ABSTRACT Galaxies like the Milky Way are surrounded by complex populations of satellites at all stages of tidal disruption. In this paper, we present a dynamical study of the disrupting satellite galaxies in the Auriga simulations that are orbiting 28 distinct Milky Way-mass hosts across three resolutions. We find that the satellite galaxy populations are highly disrupted. The majority of satellites that remain fully intact at present day were accreted recently without experiencing more than one pericentre ($$n_{\rm peri} \lesssim 1$$) and have large apocentres ($$r_{\rm apo} \gtrsim 200 \mathrm{\, kpc}$$) and pericentres ($$r_{\rm peri} \gtrsim 50 \mathrm{\, kpc}$$). The remaining satellites have experienced significant tidal disruption and, given full knowledge of the system, would be classified as stellar streams. We find stellar streams in Auriga across the range of pericentres and apocentres of the known Milky Way dwarf galaxy streams and, interestingly, overlapping significantly with the Milky Way intact satellite population. We find no significant change in satellite orbital distributions across resolution. However, we do see substantial halo-to-halo variance of $$(r_\text{peri}, r_\text{apo})$$ distributions across host galaxies, as well as a dependence of satellite orbits on host halo mass–systems disrupt at larger pericentres and apocentres in more massive hosts. Our results suggest that either cosmological simulations (including, but not limited to, Auriga) are disrupting satellites far too readily, or that the Milky Way’s satellites are more disrupted than current imaging surveys have revealed. Future observing facilities and careful mock observations of these systems will be key to revealing the nature of this apparent discrepancy. 

Abstract In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge. 

Abstract Measurements of the accelerations of stars enabled by time-series extreme-precision spectroscopic observations, pulsar timing, and eclipsing binary stars in the solar neighborhood offer insights into the mass distribution of the Milky Way that do not rely on traditional equilibrium modeling. Given the measured accelerations, we can determine a total mass density and infer the amount of dark matter (DM) by accounting for the mass in stars, gas, and dust. Leveraging FIRE-2 simulations of Milky Way–mass galaxies we compare vertical acceleration profiles between cold DM (CDM) and self-interacting DM (SIDM) with a constant cross section of 1 cm²g⁻¹across three halos with diverse assembly histories. Notably, significant asymmetries in vertical acceleration profiles near the midplane at fixed radii are observed in both CDM and SIDM, particularly in halos recently affected by mergers with satellites of Sagittarius/SMC-like masses or greater. These asymmetries offer a unique window into exploring the merger history of a galaxy. We show that SIDM halos manifest a more oblate shape and consistently exhibit higher local stellar and DM densities and steeper vertical acceleration gradients, up to 10%–30% steeper near the solar neighborhood. However, similar magnitude changes can arise from azimuthal variations in the baryonic components at a fixed radius and external influences like mergers, making it difficult to distinguish between CDM and SIDM using acceleration measurements in a single galaxy.