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Abstract While galaxy rotation curves (RCs) provide one of the most powerful methods for measuring dark matter profiles in the inner regions of rotation-supported galaxies, at the dwarf scale there are factors that can complicate this analysis. Given the expectation of a universal profile in dark-matter-only simulations, the diversity of the observed RCs has become an often-discussed issue in Lambda cold dark matter cosmology on galactic scales. We analyze a suite of Feedback in Realistic Environments simulations of 10¹⁰–10¹²M_⊙halos with standard cold dark matter and compare the true circular velocity to RC reconstructions. We find that, for galaxies with well-ordered gaseous disks, the measured RC may deviate from the true circular velocity by at most ∼10% within the radius of the disk. However, nonequilibrium behaviors, noncircular motions, and nonthermal and nonkinetic stresses may cause much larger discrepancies, of ∼50% or more. Most RC reconstructions underestimate the true circular velocity, while some reconstructions transiently overestimate it in the central few kiloparsecs, due to dynamical phenomena. We further demonstrate that the features that contribute to these failures are not always visibly obvious in HIobservations. If such dwarf galaxies are included in galaxy catalogs, they may give rise to the appearance of “artificial” RC diversity that does not reflect the true variation in underlying dark matter profiles. 

We use FIRE-2 zoom simulations of Milky Way size disk galaxies to derive easy-to-use relationships between the observed circular speed of the Galaxy at the Solar location,v_c, and dark matter properties of relevance for direct detection experiments: the dark matter density, the dark matter velocity dispersion, and the speed distribution of dark matter particles near the Solar location. We find that both the local dark matter density and 3D velocity dispersion follow tight power laws withv_c. Using this relation together with the observed circular speed of the Milky Way at the Solar radius, we infer the local dark matter density and velocity dispersion near the Sun to beρ= 0.42±0.06 GeV cm^-3and^σ_3D= 280⁺¹⁹_-18km s^-1. We also find that the distribution of dark matter particle speeds is well-described by a modified Maxwellian with two shape parameters, both of which correlate with the observedv_c. We use that modified Maxwellian to predict the speed distribution of dark matter near the Sun and find that it peaks at a most probable speed of 257 km s^-1and begins to truncate sharply above 470 km s^-1. This peak speed is somewhat higher than expected from the standard halo model, and the truncation occurs well below the formal escape speed to infinity, with fewer very-high-speed particles than assumed in the standard halo model. 

Abstract In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge. 

Abstract The third data release (DR3) of Gaia has provided a fivefold increase in the number of radial velocity measurements of stars, as well as a stark improvement in parallax and proper motion measurements. To help with studies that seek to test models and interpret Gaia DR3, we present nine Gaia synthetic surveys, based on three solar positions in three Milky Way-mass galaxies of theLattesuite of theFire-2 cosmological simulations. These synthetic surveys match the selection function, radial velocity measurements, and photometry of Gaia DR3, adapting the code baseAnanke, previously used to match the Gaia DR2 release by Sanderson et al. The synthetic surveys are publicly available and can be found athttp://ananke.hub.yt/. Similarly to the previous release ofAnanke, these surveys are based on cosmological simulations and thus are able to model nonequilibrium dynamical effects, making them a useful tool in testing and interpreting Gaia DR3. 

ABSTRACT In this paper, we construct the circular velocity curve of the Milky Way out to ∼30 kpc, providing an updated model of the dark matter density profile. We derive precise parallaxes for 120 309 stars with a data-driven model, using APOGEE DR17 spectra combined with GaiaDR3, 2MASS, and WISE photometry. At outer galactic radii up to 30 kpc, we find a significantly faster decline in the circular velocity curve compared to the inner parts. This decline is better fit with a cored Einasto profile with a slope parameter $$0.91^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$$ than a generalized Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile. The virial mass of the best-fitting dark matter halo profile is only $$1.81^{+0.06}_{-0.05}\times 10^{11}$$ M⊙, significantly lower than what a generalized NFW profile delivers. We present a study of the potential systematics, affecting mainly large radii. Such a low mass for the Galaxy is driven by the functional forms tested, given that it probes beyond our measurements. It is found to be in tension with mass measurements from globular clusters, dwarf satellites, and streams. Our best-fitting profile also lowers the expected dark matter annihilation signal flux from the galactic centre by more than an order of magnitude, compared to an NFW profile-fit. In future work, we will explore profiles with more flexible functional forms to more fully leverage the circular velocity curve and observationally constrain the properties of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. 

Abstract The Hercules ultrafaint dwarf galaxy (UFD) has long been hypothesized to be tidally disrupting, yet no conclusive evidence has been found for tidal disruption owing partly to difficulties in identifying Hercules member stars. In this work, we present a homogeneous reanalysis of new and existing observations of Hercules, including the detection of a new potential member star located ∼1° (∼1.7 kpc) west of the center of the system. In addition to measuring the line-of-sight velocity gradient, we compare predictions from dynamical models of stream formation to these observations. We report an updated velocity dispersion measurement based on 28 stars, ${1.9}_{-0.6}^{+0.6}$ km s⁻¹, which is significantly lower than previous measurements. We find that the line-of-sight velocity gradient is ${1.8}_{-1.8}^{+1.8}$ km s⁻¹kpc along the major axis of Hercules, consistent with zero within 1σ. Our dynamical models of stream formation, on the other hand, can reproduce the morphology of the Hercules UFD, specifically the misalignment between the elongation and the orbital motion direction. Additionally, these dynamical models indicate that any radial velocity gradient from tidal disruption would be too small, ${0.00}_{-0.91}^{+0.97}$ km s⁻¹kpc, to be detectable with current sample sizes. Combined with our analysis of the tidal radius evolution of the system as a function of its orbital phase, we argue that it is likely that Hercules is indeed currently undergoing tidal disruption in its extended stellar halo with a line-of-sight velocity gradient too small to be detected with current observational data sets. 

ABSTRACT Understanding local stellar kinematic substructures in the solar neighbourhood helps build a complete picture of the formation of the Milky Way, as well as an empirical phase space distribution of dark matter that would inform detection experiments. We apply the clustering algorithm hdbscan on the Gaia early third data release to identify a list of stable clusters in velocity space and action-angle space by taking into account the measurement uncertainties and studying the stability of the clustering results. We find 1405 (497) stars in 23 (6) robust clusters in velocity space (action-angle space) that are consistently not associated with noise. We discuss the kinematic properties of these structures and study whether many of the small clusters belong to a similar larger cluster based on their chemical abundances. They are attributed to the known structures: the Gaia Sausage-Enceladus, the Helmi Stream, and globular cluster NGC 3201 are found in both spaces, while NGC 104 and the thick disc (Sequoia) are identified in velocity space (action-angle space). Although we do not identify any new structures, we find that the hdbscan member selection of already known structures is unstable to input kinematics of the stars when resampled within their uncertainties. We therefore present the stable subset of local kinematic structures, which are consistently identified by the clustering algorithm, and emphasize the need to take into account error propagation during both the manual and automated identification of stellar structures, both for existing ones as well as future discoveries. 

Abstract Nyx is a nearby, prograde, and high-eccentricity stellar stream physically contained in the thick disk, but its origin is unknown. Nyx could be the remnant of a disrupted dwarf galaxy, in which case the associated dark matter substructure could affect terrestrial dark matter direct-detection experiments. Alternatively, Nyx could be a signature of the Milky Way’s disk formation and evolution. To determine the origin of Nyx, we obtained high-resolution spectroscopy of 34 Nyx stars using Keck/HIRES and Magellan/MIKE. A differential chemical abundance analysis shows that most Nyx stars reside in a metal-rich ([Fe/H] > −1) high-αcomponent that is chemically indistinguishable from the thick disk. This rules out the originally suggested scenario that Nyx is the remnant of a single massive dwarf galaxy merger. However, we also identify 5 substantially more metal-poor stars ([Fe/H] ∼ −2.0) whose chemical abundances are similar to those of the metal-weak thick disk. It remains unclear how stars that are chemically identical to the thick disk can be on such prograde, high-eccentricity orbits. We suggest two most likely scenarios: that Nyx is the result of an early minor dwarf galaxy merger, or that it is a record of the early spin-up of the Milky Way disk—although neither perfectly reproduces the chemodynamic observations. The most likely formation scenarios suggest that future spectroscopic surveys should find Nyx-like structures outside of the solar neighborhood.