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Creators/Authors contains: "Pagès, Rémi"

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  1. Abstract Recent marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska have had devastating impacts on species from various trophic levels. Due to climate change, total heat exposure in the upper ocean has become longer, more intense, more frequent, and more likely to happen at the same time as other environmental extremes. The combination of multiple environmental extremes can exacerbate the response of sensitive marine organisms. Our hindcast simulation provides the first indication that more than 20% of the bottom water of the Gulf of Alaska continental shelf was exposed to quadruple heat, positive hydrogen ion concentration [H+], negative aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), and negative oxygen concentration [O2] compound extreme events during the 2018–2020 marine heat wave. Natural intrusion of deep and acidified water combined with the marine heat wave triggered the first occurrence of these events in 2019. During the 2013–2016 marine heat wave, surface waters were already exposed to widespread marine heat and positive [H+] compound extreme events due to the temperature effect on the [H+]. We introduce a new Gulf of Alaska Downwelling Index (GOADI) with short‐term predictive skill, which can serve as indicator of past and near‐future positive [H+], negative Ωarag, and negative [O2] compound extreme events near the shelf seafloor. Our results suggest that the marine heat waves may have not been the sole environmental stressor that led to the observed ecosystem impacts and warrant a closer look at existing in situ inorganic carbon and other environmental data in combination with biological observations and model output. 
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  2. Abstract Uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the surface ocean is leading to global ocean acidification, but regional variations in ocean circulation and mixing can dampen or accelerate apparent acidification rates. Here we use a regional ocean model simulation for the years 1980 to 2013 and observational data to investigate how ocean fluctuations impact acidification rates in surface waters of the Gulf of Alaska. We find that large-scale atmospheric forcing influenced local winds and upwelling strength, which in turn affected ocean acidification rate. Specifically, variability in local wind stress curl depressed sea surface height in the subpolar gyre over decade-long intervals, which increased upwelling of nitrate- and dissolved inorganic carbon-rich waters and enhanced apparent ocean acidification rates. We define this sea surface height variability as the Northern Gulf of Alaska Oscillation and suggest that it can cause extreme acidification events that are detrimental to ecosystem health and fisheries. 
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