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Creators/Authors contains: "Pappas, George"

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  1. In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 21, 2025
  2. n this paper, we focus on the problem of shrinking-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) in uncertain dynamic environments. We consider controlling a deterministic autonomous system that interacts with uncontrollable stochastic agents during its mission. Employing tools from conformal prediction, existing works derive high-confidence prediction regions for the unknown agent trajectories, and integrate these regions in the design of suitable safety constraints for MPC. Despite guaranteeing probabilistic safety of the closed-loop trajectories, these constraints do not ensure feasibility of the respective MPC schemes for the entire duration of the mission. We propose a shrinking-horizon MPC that guarantees recursive feasibility via a gradual relaxation of the safety constraints as new prediction regions become available online. This relaxation enforces the safety constraints to hold over the least restrictive prediction region from the set of all available prediction regions. In a comparative case study with the state of the art, we empirically show that our approach results in tighter prediction regions and verify recursive feasibility of our MPC scheme. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 16, 2025