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Abstract We explore the impact of “slow-light” radiative transfer—i.e., general relativistic radiative transfer calculations in which the simulated fluid evolves while light rays are propagating through it—in general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models of the M87 jet. Because the plasma in the jet-launching region is accelerated to relativistic velocities, and because the jet in M87 is nearly aligned with the line of sight (offset by ∼17°), a slow-light treatment is important for accurate modeling of the observable structure. While fast-light images exhibit prominent helical or loop-shaped features in the jet—which we associate with narrow bundles of magnetic field lines—these features become stretched and smoothed-out in slow-light images. Our slow-light images instead exhibit a double-edged, cone-like morphology that is more consistent with observations of M87 than conventional fast-light images. We find that the radius at which the plasma transitions from subrelativistic to relativistic velocities is imprinted on slow-light images via a transition from loop-dominated at small distances from the black hole (BH) to edge-dominated at a larger distance, with the loop-edge transition occurring at larger distances for lower BH spins. The jet image dynamics also vary with BH spin, with low-spin models producing jets that exhibit substantial “wobbling,” while high-spin models produce jets that are straighter and more stable in time. The spin-dependent jet morphology and variability are revealed by slow-light imaging both because slow-light effects are enhanced as the plasma velocity becomes more relativistic and because the plasma acceleration is itself a strong function of the spin. 

Abstract From magnetized plasma of relativistic jets to dust grains within protoplanetary disks, we study the emission mechanisms of radio sources via their rich spectral structure. Multifrequency synthesis (MFS) is a technique in which interferometric data at multiple frequencies are imaged simultaneously, resulting in a denser sampling of spatial scales, higher imaging fidelity, and tighter constraints on the source’s spectral structure and evolution. We describe a new method of MFS imaging reconstruction in a hierarchical interferometric Bayesian inference framework, CHIBI. The model parameterization is based on the spectral behavior of synchrotron radiation, the emission mechanism dominating the radio emission observed from galactic nuclei. We show results of this method on observations of jet sources from the MOJAVE catalog with the Very Long Baseline Array, and showcase the prospects for MFS imaging of M87* with simulated data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and future expansions such as the next-generation EHT and the black hole Explorer. These demonstrations highlight the benefit of MFS to reconstruct higher-fidelity images and spectral index maps, producing scientifically richer results in a statistically grounded framework, implemented inComrade.jl. 

Abstract Recent Event Horizon Telescope results have demonstrated unique and transformative science in gravitational physics and black hole astrophysics enabled by event-horizon-scale imaging of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Nevertheless, the angular resolution of current ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays limits such studies to only two sources, precluding systematic investigations of horizon-scale emission across a nearby SMBH population. The proposed black hole Explorer (BHEX), a millimeter/submillimeter space VLBI mission, would overcome this limitation by delivering substantially higher angular resolution. Here, we present a series of simulated observations to assess a population of nearby horizon-scale targets accessible with BHEX. Based on a recently developed SMBH number density model, we find that BHEX could infer black hole masses for ∼70–90 sources from size measurements, constrain magnetic field structures through linear polarization imaging for ∼20–30 sources, and resolve black hole shadows for ∼20–25 sources. Targeted observations of ∼50 nearby SMBHs are expected to yield measurements for ∼30 source sizes and ∼10 shadows and linear-polarization patterns. These projections are supported by detailed imaging simulations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models for eleven nearby SMBHs. Together, our results highlight BHEX as a powerful facility for revealing the demographics of SMBH properties across diverse accretion states, radio loudness, host galaxy environments, and viewing geometries. 

Abstract Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) achieves the highest angular resolution in astronomy. VLBI measures corrupted Fourier components, known as visibilities. Reconstructing on-sky images from these visibilities is a challenging inverse problem, particularly for sparse arrays such as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the Very Long Baseline Array, where incomplete sampling and severe calibration errors introduce significant uncertainty in the image. To help guide convergence and control the uncertainty in image reconstructions, regularization on the space of images is utilized, such as enforcing smoothness or similarity to a fiducial image. Coupled with this regularization is the introduction of a new set of parameters that modulate its strength. We present a hierarchical Bayesian imaging approach (hierarchical interferometric Bayesian Imaging, HIBI) that enables the quantification of uncertainty for all parameters. Incorporating instrumental effects within HIBI is straightforward, allowing for simultaneous imaging and calibration of data. To showcase HIBI’s effectiveness and flexibility, we build a simple imaging model based on Markov random fields and demonstrate how different physical components can be included, e.g., black hole shadow size, and their uncertainties can be inferred. For example, while the original EHT publications were unable to constrain the ring width of M87*, HIBI measures a width of 9.3 ± 1.3μas. We apply HIBI to image and calibrate EHT synthetic data, real EHT observations of M87*, and multifrequency observations of OJ 287. Across these tests, HIBI accurately recovers a wide variety of image structures and quantifies their uncertainties. HIBI is publicly available in theComradeVLBI software repository. 

Abstract Using very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations at (sub)millimeter wavelengths, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) currently achieves the finest angular resolution of any astronomical facility, necessary for imaging the horizon-scale structure around supermassive black holes. A significant calibration challenge for high-frequency VLBI stems from rapid variations in the atmospheric water vapor content above each telescope in the array, which induce corresponding fluctuations in the phase of the correlated signal that limit the coherent integration time and thus the achievable sensitivity. In this paper, we introduce a model that describes station-based phase corruptions jointly with a parameterization for the source structure. We adopt a Gaussian process (GP) prescription for the time evolution of these phase corruptions, which provides sufficient flexibility to capture even highly erratic phase behavior. The use of GPs permits the application of a Kalman filtering algorithm for numerical marginalization of these phase corruptions, which permits efficient exploration of the remaining parameter space. Our model also removes the need to specify an arbitrary “reference station” during calibration, instead establishing a global phase zero-point by enforcing the GPs at all stations to have fixed mean and finite variance. We validate our method using a real EHT observation of the blazar 3C 279, demonstrating that our approach yields calibration solutions that are consistent with those determined by the EHT Collaboration. The model presented here can be straightforwardly extended to incorporate frequency-dependent phase behavior, such as is relevant for the frequency phase transfer calibration technique. 

Abstract Very long baseline interferometry observations reveal that relativistic jets like the one in M87 have a limb-brightened, double-edged structure. Analytic and numerical models struggle to reproduce this limb-brightening. We propose a model in which we invoke anisotropy in the distribution function of synchrotron-emitting nonthermal electrons such that electron velocities are preferentially directed parallel to magnetic field lines, as suggested by recent particle-in-cell simulations of electron acceleration and the effects of synchrotron cooling. We assume that the energy injected into nonthermal electrons is proportional to the jet Poynting flux, and we account for synchrotron cooling via a broken power-law energy distribution. We implement our emission model in both general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and axisymmetric force-free electrodynamic (GRFFE) jet models and produce simulated jet images at multiple scales and frequencies using polarized general relativistic radiative transfer. We find that the synchrotron emission is concentrated parallel to the local helical magnetic field and that this feature produces limb-brightened jet images on scales ranging from tens of microarcseconds to hundreds of milliarcseconds in M87. We present theoretical predictions for horizon-scale M87 jet images at 230 and 345 GHz that can be tested with next-generation instruments. Due to the scale-invariance of the GRMHD and GRFFE models, our emission prescription can be applied to other targets and serve as a foundation for a unified description of limb-brightened synchrotron images of extragalactic jets. 

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of SMBHs through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target’s mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with the Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the EHT through ground updates with the next-generation EHT program and extensions to space through the black hole Explorer. 

Context.The direct empirical determination of the local value of the Hubble constant (H₀) has markedly advanced thanks to improved instrumentation, measurement techniques, and distance estimators. However, combining determinations from different estimators is nontrivial due to their correlated calibrations and different analysis methodologies. Aims.Using covariance weighting and leveraging community expertise, we have constructed a rigorous and transparent “Distance Network” to find a consensus value and uncertainty for the locally measured Hubble constant. Methods.Experts across all relevant distance measurement domains were invited to critically review the available datasets spanning parallaxes, detached eclipsing binaries, masers, Cepheids, the tip of the red giant branch, Miras, carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch stars, Type Ia (SNe Ia) and Type II supernovae, surface brightness fluctuations, the fundamental plane, and Tully–Fisher relations. Before any calculations, the group voted for first-rank indicators to define a “baseline” Distance Network. Other indicators were included to assess the robustness and sensitivity of the results. We provide open-source software and data products to support full transparency and future extensions of this effort. Results.Our key findings are as follows: (1) The localH₀is robustly determined, with first-rank indicators internally consistent within their uncertainties. (2) A covariance-weighted combination yields a relative uncertainty of 1.1% (baseline) or 0.9% (all estimators). (3) The contribution from SNe Ia is consistent across compilations of optical or NIR magnitudes. (4) Removing either Cepheids or the tip of the red giant branch has a minimal effect on the central value ofH₀. (5) Replacing SNe Ia with galaxy-based indicators changesH₀by less than 0.1 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹while doubling its uncertainty. (6) The baseline result isH₀ = 73.50 ± 0.81 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹, 7.1σfrom the early Universe plus ΛCDM result 67.24 ± 0.35 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹and 5.0σfrom BBN+BAO within a flat ΛCDM DESI DR2 (68.51 ± 0.58 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹). Conclusions.A networked approach, such as the one presented here, is invaluable for enabling further progress in Hubble constant measurements, as it provides the much needed advances in accuracy and precision without overreliance on any single method, sample, or group. 

Abstract Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases, so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations usingngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data.ngehtsimuses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multifrequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity ofngehtsim’spredictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87* at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of ≲20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times—as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multifrequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT—can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87* and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all. 

Abstract We present the results of an Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array survey to identify 183 GHz H₂O maser emission from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) already known to host 22 GHz megamaser systems. Out of 20 sources observed, we detect significant 183 GHz maser emission from 13; this survey thus increases the number of AGN known to host (sub)millimeter megamasers by a factor of 5. We find that the 183 GHz emission is systematically fainter than the 22 GHz emission from the same targets, with typical flux densities being roughly an order of magnitude lower at 183 GHz than at 22 GHz. However, the isotropic luminosities of the detected 183 GHz sources are comparable to their 22 GHz values. For two of our sources—ESO 269-G012 and the Circinus galaxy—we detect rich 183 GHz spectral structure containing multiple line complexes. The 183 GHz spectrum of ESO 269-G012 exhibits the triple-peaked structure characteristic of an edge-on AGN disk system. The Circinus galaxy contains the strongest 183 GHz emission detected in our sample, peaking at a flux density of nearly 5 Jy. The high signal-to-noise ratios achieved by these strong lines enable a coarse mapping of the 183 GHz maser system, in which the masers appear to be distributed similarly to those seen in VLBI maps of the 22 GHz system in the same galaxy and may be tracing the circumnuclear accretion disk at larger orbital radii than the 22 GHz masers. This newly identified population of AGN disk megamasers presents a motivation for developing VLBI capabilities at 183 GHz.