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  1. Barnow, Burt S. (Ed.)
  2. Abstract

    In non-experimental research, a sensitivity analysis helps determine whether a causal conclusion could be easily reversed in the presence of hidden bias. A new approach to sensitivity analysis on the basis of weighting extends and supplements propensity score weighting methods for identifying the average treatment effect for the treated (ATT). In its essence, the discrepancy between a new weight that adjusts for the omitted confounders and an initial weight that omits them captures the role of the confounders. This strategy is appealing for a number of reasons including that, regardless of how complex the data generation functions are, the number of sensitivity parameters remains small and their forms never change. A graphical display of the sensitivity parameter values facilitates a holistic assessment of the dominant potential bias. An application to the well-known LaLonde data lays out the implementation procedure and illustrates its broad utility. The data offer a prototypical example of non-experimental evaluations of the average impact of job training programmes for the participant population.

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  3. This article used self‐regulated learning as a theoretical lens to examine the individual and interactive associations between a growth mindset and metacognition on math engagement for adolescent students from socioeconomically disadvantaged schools. Across three longitudinal studies with 207, 897, and 2,325 11‐ to 15‐year‐old adolescents, students’ beliefs that intelligence is malleable and capable of growth over time only predicted higher math engagement among students possessing the metacognitive skills to reflect upon and be aware of their learning progress. The results suggest that metacognitive skills may be necessary for students to realize their growth mindset. Thus, growth mindsets and metacognitive skills should be promoted together to capitalize on the mutually reinforcing effects of each, especially among students in socioeconomically disadvantaged schools.

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  4. Maintaining learning engagement throughout adolescence is critical for long‐term academic success. This research sought to understand the role of metacognition and motivation in predicting adolescents' engagement in math learning over time. In two longitudinal studies with 2,325 and 207 adolescents (ages 11–15), metacognitive skills, interest, and self‐control each uniquely predicted math engagement. Additionally, metacognitive skills worked with interest and self‐control interactively to shape engagement. In Study 1, metacognitive skills and interest were found to compensate for one another. This compensatory pattern further interacted with time in Study 2, indicating that the decline in engagement was forestalled among adolescents who had either high metacognitive skills or high interest. Both studies also uncovered an interaction between metacognitive skills and self‐control, though with slightly different interaction patterns.

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  5. Summary

    This study provides a template for multisite causal mediation analysis using a comprehensive weighting-based analytic procedure that enhances external and internal validity. The template incorporates a sample weight to adjust for complex sample and survey designs, adopts an inverse probability of treatment weight to adjust for differential treatment assignment probabilities, employs an estimated non-response weight to account for non-random non-response and utilizes a propensity-score-based weighting strategy to decompose flexibly not only the population average but also the between-site heterogeneity of the total programme impact. Because the identification assumptions are not always warranted, a weighting-based balance checking procedure assesses the remaining overt bias, whereas a weighting-based sensitivity analysis further evaluates the potential bias related to omitted confounding or to propensity score model misspecification. We derive the asymptotic variance of the estimators for the causal effects that account for the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights. The method is applied to a reanalysis of the data from the National Job Corps Study.

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  6. This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score‐based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio‐of‐mediator‐probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score‐based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2‐step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio‐of‐mediator‐probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2‐step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance‐covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2‐step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score‐based weighting.

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