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Abstract The stability of permafrost is of fundamental importance to socio-economic well-being and ecological services, involving broad impacts to hydrological cycling, global budgets of greenhouse gases and infrastructure safety. This study presents a biophysical permafrost zonation map that uses a rule-based geographic information system (GIS) model integrating global climate and ecological datasets to classify and map permafrost regions (totaling 19.76 × 10 6 km 2 , excluding glaciers and lakes) in the Northern Hemisphere into five types: climate-driven (CD) (19% of area), CD/ecosystem-modified (41%), CD/ecosystem protected (3%), ecosystem-driven (29%), and ecosystem-protected (8%). Overall, 81% of the permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere are modified, driven, or protected by ecosystems, indicating the dominant role of ecosystems in permafrost stability in the Northern Hemisphere. Permafrost driven solely by climate occupies 19% of permafrost regions, mainly in High Arctic and high mountains areas, such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This highlights the importance of reducing ecosystem disturbances (natural and human activity) to help slow permafrost degradation and lower the related risks from a warming climate. 

Lakes in the permafrost zone have been proposed to serve as key outlets for methane and carbon dioxide emissions. However, there has been no geological record of the hydrological and biogeochemical responses of lakes throughout the thawing of surrounding permafrost. We use multiple biomarker and isotopic proxies to reconstruct hydrological and biogeochemical changes in Lake Wudalianchi in northeastern China during regional thawing of the permafrost. We show permafrost thawing, as indicated by lignin degradation, initiated rapid lake water freshening as a result of the opening of groundwater conduits, and negative organic δ13C excursion due to increased inorganic and organic carbon fluxes. These hydrological changes were followed, with an ~5–7 yr delay, by abrupt and persistent increases in microbial lake methanotrophy and methanogenesis, indicating enhanced anaerobic organic decomposition and methane emissions from lakes as permafrost thaws. Our data provide a detailed assessment of the processes involved during permafrost thaw, and highlight the importance of lakes in ventilating greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.