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Abstract Accelerated warming of the Arctic can affect the global climate system by thawing permafrost and exposing organic carbon in soils to decompose and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We used a process-based biosphere model (DVM-DOS-TEM) designed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical interactions between the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. We varied soil and environmental parameters to assess the impact on cryohydrological and biogeochemical outputs in the model. We analyzed the responses of ecosystem carbon balances to permafrost thaw by running site-level simulations at two long-term tundra ecological monitoring sites in Alaska: Eight Mile Lake (EML) and Imnavait Creek Watershed (IMN), which are characterized by similar tussock tundra vegetation but differing soil drainage conditions and climate. Model outputs showed agreement with field observations at both sites for soil physical properties and ecosystem CO₂fluxes. Model simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) showed an overestimation during the frozen season (higher CO₂emissions) at EML with a mean NEE of 26.98 ± 4.83 gC/m²/month compared to observational mean of 22.01 ± 5.67 gC/m²/month, and during the fall months at IMN, with a modeled mean of 19.21 ± 7.49 gC/m²/month compared to observation mean of 11.9 ± 4.45 gC/m²/month. Our results underscore the importance of representing the impact of soil drainage conditions on the thawing of permafrost soils, particularly poorly drained soils, which will drive the magnitude of carbon released at sites across the high-latitude tundra. These findings can help improve predictions of net carbon releases from thawing permafrost, ultimately contributing to a better understanding of the impact of Arctic warming on the global climate system. 

Abstract Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO₂and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO₂sink with lower net CO₂uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO₂sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m⁻² y⁻¹). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH₄m⁻² y⁻¹). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO₂and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects. 

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.