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1. Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007638  

   Treat, Claire C.; Virkkala, Anna‐Maria; Burke, Eleanor; Bruhwiler, Lori; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Fisher, Joshua B.; Hashemi, Josh; Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W.; Rogers, Brendan M.; Westermann, Sebastian; et al (February 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO₂and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO₂sink with lower net CO₂uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO₂sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m⁻² y⁻¹). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH₄m⁻² y⁻¹). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO₂and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects. 

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2. Empirical Models for Predicting Water and Heat Flow Properties of Permafrost Soils

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087646  

   O'Connor, Michael T.; Cardenas, M. Bayani; Ferencz, Stephen B.; Wu, Yue; Neilson, Bethany T.; Chen, Jingyi; Kling, George W. (June 2020, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Warming and thawing in the Arctic are promoting biogeochemical processing and hydrologic transport in carbon‐rich permafrost and soils that transfer carbon to surface waters or the atmosphere. Hydrologic and biogeochemical impacts of thawing are challenging to predict with sparse information on arctic soil hydraulic and thermal properties. We developed empirical and statistical models of soil properties for three main strata in the shallow, seasonally thawed soils above permafrost in a study area of ~7,500 km²in Alaska. The models show that soil vertical stratification and hydraulic properties are predictable based on vegetation cover and slope. We also show that the distinct hydraulic and thermal properties of each soil stratum can be predicted solely from bulk density. These findings fill the gap for a sparsely mapped region of the Arctic and enable regional interpolation of soil properties critical for determining future hydrologic responses and the fate of carbon in thawing permafrost. 

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3. Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub‐Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG006218  

   Garnello, A.; Marchenko, S.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V.; Ledman, J.; Celis, G.; Schädel, C.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G. (June 2021, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil‐atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub‐Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing. 

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4. Closing the Winter Gap—Year‐Round Measurements of Soil CO ₂ Emission Sources in Arctic Tundra

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097347  

   Pedron, Shawn A.; Welker, J. M.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Klein, E. S.; Walker, J. C.; Xu, X.; Czimczik, C. I. (March 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Non‐growing season CO₂emissions from Arctic tundra remain a major uncertainty in forecasting climate change consequences of permafrost thaw. We present the first time series of soil and microbial CO₂emissions from a graminoid tundra based on year‐round in situ measurements of the radiocarbon content of soil CO₂(Δ¹⁴CO₂) and of bulk soil C (Δ¹⁴C), microbial activity, and temperature. Combining these data with land‐atmosphere CO₂exchange allows estimates of the proportion and mean age of microbial CO₂emissions year‐round. We observe a seasonal shift in emission sources from fresh carbon during the growing season (August Δ¹⁴CO₂ = 74 ± 4.7‰, 37% ± 3.4% microbial, mean ± se) to increasingly older soil carbon in fall and winter (March Δ¹⁴CO₂ = 22 ± 1.3‰, 47% ± 8% microbial). Thus, rising soil temperatures and emissions during fall and winter are depleting aged soil carbon pools in the active layer and thawing permafrost and further accelerating climate change. 

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5. Soil respiration strongly offsets carbon uptake in Alaska and Northwest Canada

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1222  

   Watts, Jennifer D.; Natali, Susan M.; Minions, Christina; Risk, Dave; Arndt, Kyle; Zona, Donatella; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Sonnentag, Oliver; Helbig, Manuel; et al (August 2021, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO₂flux database for permafrost-affected tundra and boreal ecosystems in Alaska and Northwest Canada. We then used the CO₂database, multi-sensor satellite imagery, and random forest models to assess the regional magnitude of soil respiration. The flux database includes a new Soil Respiration Station network of chamber-based fluxes, and fluxes from eddy covariance towers. Our site-level data, spanning September 2016 to August 2017, revealed that the largest soil respiration emissions occurred during the summer (June–August) and that summer fluxes were higher in boreal sites (1.87 ± 0.67 g CO₂–C m⁻²d⁻¹) relative to tundra (0.94 ± 0.4 g CO₂–C m⁻²d⁻¹). We also observed considerable emissions (boreal: 0.24 ± 0.2 g CO₂–C m⁻²d⁻¹; tundra: 0.18 ± 0.16 g CO₂–C m⁻²d⁻¹) from soils during the winter (November–March) despite frozen surface conditions. Our model estimates indicated an annual region-wide loss from soil respiration of 591 ± 120 Tg CO₂–C during the 2016–2017 period. Summer months contributed to 58% of the regional soil respiration, winter months contributed to 15%, and the shoulder months contributed to 27%. In total, soil respiration offset 54% of annual gross primary productivity (GPP) across the study domain. We also found that in tundra environments, transitional tundra/boreal ecotones, and in landscapes recently affected by fire, soil respiration often exceeded GPP, resulting in a net annual source of CO₂to the atmosphere. As this region continues to warm, soil respiration may increasingly offset GPP, further amplifying global climate change. 

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