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Abstract Future changes in the Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content (LFWC) are important for the local and global climate. However, traditional climate models cannot resolve oceanic and atmospheric eddies that are critical to the LFWC variations. In this study, we investigate physical processes controlling Beaufort Gyre LFWC changes in an eddy‐resolving simulation. The model simulation largely reproduces the observed LFWC changes, and projects a long‐term LFWC increase with an intensification of its decadal variability during the 21st century. Freshwater budget analysis suggests that future LFWC changes are strongly influenced by sea ice melt. The conversion from solid to liquid phase provides more liquid freshwater into the ocean. Meanwhile, sea ice loss enhances the efficiency of air‐sea momentum transfer, leading to increased wind‐driven freshwater convergence and its variability. The decadal variation of the LFWC will regulate Arctic freshwater exports and coincident with an O (0.5 Sv) change in the meridional overturning circulation. 

Abstract The existence of multiple equilibria (ice-covered and ice-free states) is explored using a set of coupled, nondimensional equations that describe the heat and salt balances in basins, such as the Arctic Ocean, that are subject to atmospheric forcing and two distinct water mass sources. Six nondimensional numbers describe the influences of atmospheric cooling, evaporation minus precipitation, solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, diapycnal mixing, and the temperature contrast between the two water masses. It is shown that multiple equilibria resulting from the dependence of albedo on ice cover exist over a wide range of parameter space, especially so in the weak mixing limit. Multiple equilibria can also occur if diapycnal mixing increases toO(10⁻⁴) m²s⁻¹or larger under ice-free conditions due to enhanced upward mixing of warm, salty water from below. Sensitivities to various forcing parameters are discussed. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand under what circumstances high-latitude seas, such as the Arctic Ocean, can exist in either an ice-covered or an ice-free state. The temperature and salinity of the ocean, as well as the heat exchange with the atmosphere, are drastically different depending on which state the ocean is in. The theory presented here identifies how forcing from the atmosphere and ocean dynamics determines whether the ocean is ice covered, ice free, or possibly either one. 

Abstract Upwelling along the western boundary of the major ocean basin subtropical gyres has been diagnosed in a wide range of ocean models and state estimates. This vertical transport isO(5 × 10⁶) m³s⁻¹, which is on the same order of magnitude as the downward Ekman pumping across the subtropical gyres and zonally integrated meridional overturning circulation. Two approaches are used here to understand the reason for this upwelling and how it depends on oceanic parameters. First, a kinematic model that imposes a density gradient along the western boundary demonstrates that there must be upwelling with a maximum vertical transport at middepths in order to maintain geostrophic balance in the western boundary current. The second approach considers the vorticity budget near the western boundary in an idealized primitive equation model of the wind- and buoyancy-forced subtropical and subpolar gyres. It is shown that a pressure gradient along the western boundary results in bottom pressure torque that injects vorticity into the fluid. This is balanced on the boundary by lateral viscous fluxes that redistribute this vorticity across the boundary current. The viscous fluxes in the interior are balanced primarily by the vertical stretching of planetary vorticity, giving rise to upwelling within the boundary current. This process is found to be nearly adiabatic. Nonlinear terms and advection of planetary vorticity are also important locally but are not the ultimate drivers of the upwelling. Additional numerical model calculations demonstrate that the upwelling is a nonlocal consequence of buoyancy loss at high latitudes and thus represents an integral component of the meridional overturning circulation in depth space but not in density space. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand what is forcing water to upwell along the western boundary at midlatitudes of the major ocean basins. This is a potentially important process since upwelling can bring heat and nutrients closer to the surface, where they can be exchanged with the atmosphere. Also, since ocean currents vary with depth, pathways followed in the upper ocean are different from those found for the deeper ocean, so the amount and location of upwelling influence where these waters go. Idealized numerical models and theory are used to demonstrate that the upwelling is ultimately driven by density changes along the western boundary of the basin that result from heat loss at high latitudes. 

Abstract Three dominant characteristics and underlying dynamics of the seasonal cycle in Baffin Bay are discussed. The study is based on a regional, high‐resolution coupled sea ice‐ocean numerical model that complements our understanding drawn from observations. Subject to forcing from the atmosphere, sea ice, Greenland, and other ocean basins, the ocean circulation exhibits complex seasonal variations that influence Arctic freshwater storage and export. The basin‐scale barotropic circulation is generally stronger (weaker) in summer (winter). The interior recirculation (∼2 Sv) is primarily driven by oscillating along‐topography surface stress. The volume transport along the Baffin Island coast is also influenced by Arctic inflows (∼0.6 Sv) via Smith Sound and Lancaster Sound with maximum (minimum) in June‐August (October‐December). In addition to the barotropic variation, the Baffin Island Current also has changing vertical structure with the upper‐ocean baroclinicity weakened in winter‐spring. It is due to a cross‐shelf circulation associated with spatially variable ice‐ocean stresses that flattens isopycnals. Greenland runoff and sea ice processes dominate buoyancy forcing to Baffin Bay. Opposite to the runoff that freshens the west Greenland shelf, stronger salinification by ice formation compared to freshening by ice melt enables a net densification in the interior of Baffin Bay. Net sea ice formation in the past 30 years contributes to ∼25% of sea ice export via Davis Strait. The seasonal variability in baroclinicity and water mass transformation changes in recent decades based on the simulation. 

Abstract The mechanisms that control the export of freshwater from the East Greenland Current, in both liquid and solid form, are explored using an idealized numerical model and scaling theory. A regional, coupled ocean–sea ice model is applied to a series of calculations in which key parameters are varied and the scaling theory is used to interpret the model results. The offshore ice flux, occurring in late winter, is driven primarily by internal stresses and is most sensitive to the thickness of sea ice on the shelf coming out of Fram Strait and the strength of alongshore winds over the shelf. The offshore liquid freshwater flux is achieved by eddy fluxes in late summer while there is an onshore liquid freshwater flux in winter due to the ice–ocean stress, resulting in only weak annual mean flux. The scaling theory identifies the key nondimensional parameters that control the behavior and reproduces the general parameter dependence found in the numerical model. Climate models predict that winds will increase and ice export from the Arctic will decrease in the future, both of which will lead to a decrease in the offshore flux of sea ice, while the influence on liquid freshwater may increase or decrease, depending on the relative changes in the onshore Ekman transport and offshore eddy fluxes. Additional processes that have not been considered here, such as more complex topography and synoptic wind events, may also contribute to cross-shelf exchange. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to provide a basic understanding of what controls the flux of sea ice and low-salinity water from the East Greenland shelf into the interior of the Greenland and Iceland Seas. This is a potentially important process since it has been shown that sufficient freshening of the surface waters in the interior of the Nordic seas can inhibit deep convection and the associated air–sea heat flux and water mass transformation. A combination of idealized computer models and basic theory indicates that the fluxes of liquid and solid freshwater are controlled by different mechanisms and occur at different times of the year. Accurate representation in climate models will require representation of small-scale processes such as mesoscale eddies and gradients of ice thickness across the shelf. 

Abundant proxy records suggest a profound reorganization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21,000 y ago), with the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) shoaling significantly relative to the present-day (PD) and forming Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW). However, almost all previous observational and modeling studies have focused on the zonal mean two-dimensional AMOC feature, while recent progress in the understanding of modern AMOC reveals a more complicated three-dimensional structure, with NADW penetrating from the subpolar North Atlantic to lower latitude through different pathways. Here, combining²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th reconstructions and model simulations, we uncover a significant change in the three-dimensional structure of the glacial AMOC. Specifically, the mid-latitude eastern pathway (EP), located east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and transporting about half of the PD NADW from the subpolar gyre to the subtropical gyre, experienced substantial intensification during the LGM. A greater portion of the GNAIW was transported in the eastern basin during the LGM compared to NADW at the PD, resulting in opposite²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th changes between eastern and western basins during the LGM. Furthermore, in contrast to the wind-steering mechanism of EP at PD, the intensified LGM EP was caused primarily by the rim current forced by the basin-scale open-ocean convection over the subpolar North Atlantic. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for three-dimensional oceanographic changes to achieve more accurate reconstructions of past AMOC. 

Abstract The circulation within marginal seas subject to periodic winds, and their exchange with the open ocean, are explored using idealized numerical models and theory. This is motivated by the strong seasonal cycle in winds over the Nordic Seas and the exchange with the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean through the Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel. Two distinct regimes are identified: an interior with closedf/hcontours and a shallow shelf region that connects to the open ocean. The interior develops a strong oscillating along-topography circulation with weaker ageostrophic radial flows. The relative importance of the bottom Ekman layer and interior ageostrophic flows depends only onωh/C_d, whereωis the forcing frequency,his the bottom depth, andC_dis a linear bottom drag coefficient. The dynamics on the shelf are controlled by the frictional decay of coastal waves over an along-shelf scaleL_y=f₀L_sH_s/C_d, wheref₀is the Coriolis parameter, andL_sandH_sare the shelf width and depth. ForL_ymuch less than the perimeter of the basin, the surface Ekman transport is provided primarily by overturning within the marginal sea and there is little exchange with the open ocean. ForL_yon the order of the basin perimeter or larger, most of the Ekman transport is provided from outside the marginal sea with an opposite exchange through the deep part of the strait. This demonstrates a direct connection between the dynamics of coastal waves on the shelf and the exchange of deep waters through the strait, some of which is derived from below sill depth. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to understand how winds over marginal seas, which are semienclosed bodies of water around the perimeter of ocean basins, can force an exchange of water, heat, salt, and other tracers through narrow straits between the marginal sea and the open ocean. Understanding this exchange is important because marginal seas are often regions of net heat, freshwater, and carbon exchange with the atmosphere. The present results identify a direct connection between processes along the coast of the marginal sea and the flow of waters through deep straits into the open ocean. 

Abstract Barrow Canyon in the northeast Chukchi Sea is a critical choke point where Pacific‐origin water, heat, and nutrients enter the interior Arctic. While the flow through the canyon has been monitored for more than 20 years, questions remain regarding the dynamics by which the Pacific‐origin water is fluxed offshore, as well as what drives the variability. In 2018, two high‐resolution shipboard surveys of the canyon were carried out—one in summer and one in fall—to investigate the water mass distribution and velocity structure of the outflow. During the summer survey, high percentages of Pacific water (summer water + winter water) were present seaward of the canyon, associated with strong northward outflow from the canyon and a well‐developed westward‐flowing Chukchi Slope Current (CSC). By contrast, high percentages of Pacific water were confined to the canyon proper and outer Chukchi shelf during the late‐fall survey, at which time the canyon outflow and CSC were considerably weaker. These differences can be attributed to differences in wind forcing during the time period of two surveys. A cyclone‐like circulation was present in the canyon during both surveys, which was also evident in the satellite‐derived sea surface height anomaly field. We argue that this feature corresponds to an arrested topographic Rossby wave, generated as the outflow responds to the deepening bathymetry of the canyon. By applying a self‐organizing map analysis using the satellite altimeter data from 2001 to 2020, we demonstrate that such a cyclone‐like structure is a prevailing aspect of the canyon outflow. 

Abstract. The Chukchi Slope Current is a westward-flowing currentalong the Chukchi slope, which carries Pacific-origin water from the Chukchishelf into the Canada Basin and helps set the regional hydrographicstructure and ecosystem. Using a set of experiments with an idealizedprimitive equation numerical model, we investigate the energetics of theslope current during the ice-covered period. Numerical calculations showthat the growth of surface eddies is suppressed by the ice friction, whileperturbations at mid-depths can grow into eddies, consistent with linearinstability analysis. However, because the ice stress is spatially variable,it is able to drive Ekman pumping to decrease the available potential energy(APE) and kinetic energy of both the mean flow and mesoscale eddies over avertical scale of 100 m, well outside the frictional Ekman layer. The rateat which the APE changes is determined by the vertical density flux, whichis negative as the ice-induced Ekman pumping advects lighter (denser) waterupward (downward). A scaling analysis shows that Ekman pumping will dominatethe release of APE for large-scale flows, but the effect of baroclinicinstability is also important when the horizontal scale of the mean flow isthe baroclinic deformation radius and the eddy velocity is comparable to themean flow velocity. Our numerical results highlight the importance of icefriction in the energetics of the slope current and eddies, and this may berelevant to other ice-covered regions.