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Abstract The Universe is neither homogeneous nor isotropic, but it is close enough that we can reasonably approximate it as such on suitably large scales.The inflationary-Λ-Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) concordance cosmology builds on these assumptions to describe the origin and evolution of fluctuations. With standard assumptions about stress-energy sources, this system is specified by just seven phenomenological parameters,whose precise relations to underlying fundamental theories are complicated and may depend on details of those fields.Nevertheless, it is common practice to set the parameter that characterizes the spatial curvature, Ω_K, exactly to zero.This parameter-fixed ΛCDM is awarded distinguished status as separate model, “flat ΛCDM.”Ipso factothis places the onus on proponents of “curved ΛCDM” to present sufficient evidence that Ω_K≠ 0, and is needed as a parameter.While certain inflationary model Lagrangians, with certain values of their parameters, and certain initial conditions, will lead to a present-day universe well-described as containing zero curvature, this does not justify distinguishing that subset of Lagrangians, parameters and initial conditions into a separate model.Absent any theoretical arguments, we cannot use observations that suggest small Ω_Kto enforce Ω_K= 0.Our track record in picking inflationary models and their parametersa priorimakes such a choice dubious, andconcerns about tensions in cosmological parameters and large-angle cosmic-microwave-background anomalies strengthens arguments against this choice.We argue that Ω_Kmust not be set to zero, and that ΛCDM remains a phenomenological model with at least 7 parameters. 

Abstract CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5 σ , or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.