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Abstract. We present a framework for estimating concentrations of episodicallyelevated high-temperature marine ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the seasurface microlayer and their subsequent emission into the atmosphericboundary layer. These episodic INPs have been observed in multipleship-based and coastal field campaigns, but the processes controlling theirocean concentrations and transfer to the atmosphere are not yet fullyunderstood. We use a combination of empirical constraints and simulationoutputs from an Earth system model to explore different hypotheses forexplaining the variability of INP concentrations, and the occurrence ofepisodic INPs, in the marine atmosphere. In our calculations, we examine the following two proposed oceanic sources of high-temperature INPs: heterotrophic bacteria and marine biopolymer aggregates (MBPAs). Furthermore, we assume that the emission of these INPs is determined by the production of supermicron sea spray aerosol formed from jet drops, with an entrainment probability that is described by Poisson statistics. The concentration of jet drops is derived from the number concentration of supermicron sea spray aerosol calculated from model runs. We then derive the resulting number concentrations of marine high-temperature INPs (at 253 K) in the atmospheric boundary layer and compare their variability to atmospheric observations of INP variability. Specifically, we compare against concentrations of episodically occurring high-temperature INPs observed during field campaigns in the Southern Ocean, the Equatorial Pacific, and the North Atlantic. In this case study, we evaluate our framework at 253 K because reliable observational data at this temperature are available across three different ocean regions, but suitable data are sparse at higher temperatures. We find that heterotrophic bacteria and MBPAs acting as INPs provide only apartial explanation for the observed high INP concentrations. We note,however, that there are still substantial knowledge gaps, particularlyconcerning the identity of the oceanic INPs contributing most frequently toepisodic high-temperature INPs, their specific ice nucleation activity, andthe enrichment of their concentrations during the sea–air transfer process. Therefore, targeted measurements investigating the composition of these marine INPs and drivers for their emissions are needed, ideally incombination with modeling studies focused on the potential cloud impacts ofthese high-temperature INPs.