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Machine learning methods, particularly neural networks trained on large datasets, are transforming how scientists approach scientific discovery and experimental design. However, current state-of-the-art neural networks are limited by their uninterpretability: Despite their excellent accuracy, they cannot describe how they arrived at their predictions. Here, using an “interpretable-by-design” approach, we present a neural network model that provides insights into RNA splicing, a fundamental process in the transfer of genomic information into functional biochemical products. Although we designed our model to emphasize interpretability, its predictive accuracy is on par with state-of-the-art models. To demonstrate the model’s interpretability, we introduce a visualization that, for any given exon, allows us to trace and quantify the entire decision process from input sequence to output splicing prediction. Importantly, the model revealed uncharacterized components of the splicing logic, which we experimentally validated. This study highlights how interpretable machine learning can advance scientific discovery. 

Abstract Our knowledge of non-linear genetic effects on complex traits remains limited, in part, due to the modest power to detect such effects. While kernel-based tests offer a versatile approach to test for non-linear relationships between sets of genetic variants and traits, current approaches cannot be applied to Biobank-scale datasets containing hundreds of thousands of individuals. We propose, FastKAST, a kernel-based approach that can test for non-linear effects of a set of variants on a quantitative trait. FastKAST provides calibrated hypothesis tests while enabling analysis of Biobank-scale datasets with hundreds of thousands of unrelated individuals from a homogeneous population. We apply FastKAST to 53 quantitative traits measured across ≈ 300 K unrelated white British individuals in the UK Biobank to detect sets of variants with non-linear effects at genome-wide significance. 

Abstract AimsMyocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the USA with morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in the cardiac intensive care unit (ICU). Methods and resultsWe developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict the onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III database by annotating with physician-adjudicated outcomes. This dataset which consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database which was also annotated with physician-adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock. CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792–0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717–0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top 10 predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, blood urea nitrogen, systolic blood pressure, serum chloride, serum sodium, and arterial blood pH. ConclusionThe novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure. 

Although Shapley values are theoretically appealing for explaining black-box models, they are costly to calculate and thus impractical in settings that involve large, high-dimensional models. To remedy this issue, we introduce FastSHAP, a new method for estimating Shapley values in a single forward pass using a learned explainer model. To enable efficient training without requiring ground truth Shapley values, we develop an approach to train FastSHAP via stochastic gradient descent using a weighted least squares objective function. In our experiments with tabular and image datasets, we compare FastSHAP to existing estimation approaches and f ind that it generates accurate explanations with an orders-of-magnitude speedup. 

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged front-line clinical decision-making, leading to numerous published prognostic tools. However, few models have been prospectively validated and none report implementation in practice. Here, we use 3345 retrospective and 474 prospective hospitalizations to develop and validate a parsimonious model to identify patients with favorable outcomes within 96 h of a prediction, based on real-time lab values, vital signs, and oxygen support variables. In retrospective and prospective validation, the model achieves high average precision (88.6% 95% CI: [88.4–88.7] and 90.8% [90.8–90.8]) and discrimination (95.1% [95.1–95.2] and 86.8% [86.8–86.9]) respectively. We implemented and integrated the model into the EHR, achieving a positive predictive value of 93.3% with 41% sensitivity. Preliminary results suggest clinicians are adopting these scores into their clinical workflows.