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Creators/Authors contains: "Sweeney, Colm"

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  1. We present improved estimates of air–sea CO2exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (Mθe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO2measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO2data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science374, 1275–1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θe, or Mθesurfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air–sea CO2exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO2observations. 
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  2. Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2025
  3. Abstract. The continued warming of the Arctic could release vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere from high-latitude ecosystems, especially from thawingpermafrost. Increasing uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by vegetation during longer growing seasons may partially offset such release of carbon. However, evidence of significant net annual release of carbon from site-level observations and model simulations across tundra ecosystems has been inconclusive. To address this knowledge gap, we combined top-down observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration enhancements from aircraft and a tall tower, which integrate ecosystem exchange over large regions, with bottom-up observed CO2 fluxes from tundraenvironments and found that the Alaska North Slope is not a consistent net source nor net sink of CO2 to the atmosphere (ranging from −6 to+6 Tg C yr−1 for 2012–2017). Our analysis suggests that significant biogenic CO2 fluxes from unfrozen terrestrial soils, and likely inland waters, during the early cold season (September–December) are major factors in determining the net annual carbon balance of the North Slope, implying strong sensitivity to the rapidly warming freeze-up period. At the regional level, we find no evidence of the previously reported large late-cold-season (January–April) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere during the study period. Despite the importance of the cold-season CO2 emissions to the annual total, the interannual variability in the net CO2 flux is driven by the variability in growing season fluxes. During the growing season, the regional net CO2 flux is also highly sensitive to the distribution of tundra vegetation types throughout the North Slope. This study shows that quantification and characterization of year-round CO2 fluxes from the heterogeneous terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic using both site-level and atmospheric observations are important to accurately project the Earth system response to future warming. 
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  4. The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), yet estimates of air-sea CO 2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO 2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO 2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 ( P co 2 )–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. 
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  5. Abstract. The Southern Ocean is highly under-sampled for the purpose of assessing total carbon uptake and its variability. Since this region dominates the mean global ocean sink for anthropogenic carbon, understanding temporal change is critical. Underway measurements of pCO2 collected as part of the Drake Passage Time-series (DPT) program that began in 2002 inform our understanding of seasonally changing air–sea gradients in pCO2, and by inference the carbon flux in this region. Here, we utilize available pCO2 observations to evaluate how the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends in surface ocean pCO2 in the Drake Passage region compare to that of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean. Our results indicate that the Drake Passage is representative of the broader region in both seasonality and long-term pCO2 trends, as evident through the agreement of timing and amplitude of seasonal cycles as well as trend magnitudes both seasonally and annually. The high temporal density of sampling by the DPT is critical to constraining estimates of the seasonal cycle of surface pCO2 in this region, as winter data remain sparse in areas outside of the Drake Passage. An increase in winter data would aid in reduction of uncertainty levels. On average over the period 2002–2016, data show that carbon uptake has strengthened with annual surface ocean pCO2 trends in the Drake Passage and the broader subpolar Southern Ocean less than the global atmospheric trend. Analysis of spatial correlation shows Drake Passage pCO2 to be representative of pCO2 and its variability up to several hundred kilometers away from the region. We also compare DPT data from 2016 and 2017 to contemporaneous pCO2 estimates from autonomous biogeochemical floats deployed as part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project (SOCCOM) so as to highlight the opportunity for evaluating data collected on autonomous observational platforms. Though SOCCOM floats sparsely sample the Drake Passage region for 2016–2017 compared to the Drake Passage Time-series, their pCO2 estimates fall within the range of underway observations given the uncertainty on the estimates. Going forward, continuation of the Drake Passage Time-series will reduce uncertainties in Southern Ocean carbon uptake seasonality, variability, and trends, and provide an invaluable independent dataset for post-deployment assessment of sensors on autonomous floats. Together, these datasets will vastly increase our ability to monitor change in the ocean carbon sink. 
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  6. This dataset consists of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 2022 (SOCATv2022) data product files. The ocean absorbs one quarter of the global CO2 emissions from human activity. The community-led Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (www.socat.info) is key for the quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and its variation, now and in the future. SOCAT version 2022 has quality-controlled in situ surface ocean fCO2 (fugacity of CO2) measurements on ships, moorings, autonomous and drifting surface platforms for the global oceans and coastal seas from 1957 to 2021. The main synthesis and gridded products contain 33.7 million fCO2 values with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 μatm. A further 6.4 million fCO2 sensor data with an estimated accuracy of 5 to 10 μatm are separately available. During quality control, marine scientists assign a flag to each data set, as well as WOCE flags of 2 (good), 3 (questionable) or 4 (bad) to individual fCO2 values. Data sets are assigned flags of A and B for an estimated accuracy of better than 2 μatm, flags of C and D for an accuracy of better than 5 μatm and a flag of E for an accuracy of better than 10 μatm. Bakker et al. (2016) describe the quality control criteria used in SOCAT versions 3 to 2022. Quality control comments for individual data sets can be accessed via the SOCAT Data Set Viewer (www.socat.info). All data sets, where data quality has been deemed acceptable, have been made public. The main SOCAT synthesis files and the gridded products contain all data sets with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 µatm (data set flags of A to D) and fCO2 values with a WOCE flag of 2. Access to data sets with an estimated accuracy of 5 to 10 (flag of E) and fCO2 values with flags of 3 and 4 is via additional data products and the Data Set Viewer (Table 8 in Bakker et al., 2016). SOCAT publishes a global gridded product with a 1° longitude by 1° latitude resolution. A second product with a higher resolution of 0.25° longitude by 0.25° latitude is available for the coastal seas. The gridded products contain all data sets with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 µatm (data set flags of A to D) and fCO2 values with a WOCE flag of 2. Gridded products are available monthly, per year and per decade. Two powerful, interactive, online viewers, the Data Set Viewer and the Gridded Data Viewer (www.socat.info), enable investigation of the SOCAT synthesis and gridded data products. SOCAT data products can be downloaded. Matlab code is available for reading these files. Ocean Data View also provides access to the SOCAT data products (www.socat.info). SOCAT data products are discoverable, accessible and citable. The SOCAT Data Use Statement (www.socat.info) asks users to generously acknowledge the contribution of SOCAT scientists by invitation to co-authorship, especially for data providers in regional studies, and/or reference to relevant scientific articles. The SOCAT website (www.socat.info) provides a single access point for online viewers, downloadable data sets, the Data Use Statement, a list of contributors and an overview of scientific publications on and using SOCAT. Automation of data upload and initial data checks allows annual releases of SOCAT from version 4 onwards. SOCAT is used for quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and ocean acidification and for evaluation of climate models and sensor data. SOCAT products inform the annual Global Carbon Budget since 2013. The annual SOCAT releases by the SOCAT scientific community are a Voluntary Commitment for United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 14.3 (Reduce Ocean Acidification) (#OceanAction20464). More broadly the SOCAT releases contribute to UN SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. Hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific publications and high-impact reports cite SOCAT. The SOCAT community-led synthesis product is a key step in the value chain based on in situ inorganic carbon measurements of the oceans, which provides policy makers with critical information on ocean CO2 uptake in climate negotiations. The need for accurate knowledge of global ocean CO2 uptake and its (future) variation makes sustained funding of in situ surface ocean CO2 observations imperative. 
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  7. Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023). 
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