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Abstract. Arctic warming and permafrost degradation are modifying northernecosystems through changes in microtopography, soil water dynamics, nutrientavailability, and vegetation succession. Upon permafrost degradation, therelease of deep stores of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, fromnewly thawed permafrost stimulates Arctic vegetation production. Morespecifically, wetter lowlands show an increase in sedges (as part ofgraminoids), whereas drier uplands favor shrub expansion. These shifts inthe composition of vegetation may influence local mineral element cyclingthrough litter production. In this study, we evaluate the influence ofpermafrost degradation on mineral element foliar stocks and potential annualfluxes upon litterfall. We measured the foliar elemental composition (Al,Ca, Fe, K, Mn, P, S, Si, and Zn) of ∼ 500 samples of typicaltundra plant species from two contrasting Alaskan tundra sites, i.e., anexperimental sedge-dominated site (Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research, CiPEHR) and natural shrub-dominated site(Gradient). The foliar concentration of these mineral elements was species specific, with sedge leaves having relatively high Si concentration andshrub leaves having relatively high Ca and Mn concentrations. Therefore,changes in the species biomass composition of the Arctic tundra in responseto permafrost thaw are expected to be the main factors that dictate changesin elemental composition of foliar stocks and maximum potential foliarfluxes upon litterfall. We observed an increase in the mineral elementfoliar stocks and potential annual litterfall fluxes, with Si increasingwith sedge expansion in wetter sites (CiPEHR), and Ca and Mn increasing withshrub expansion in drier sites (Gradient). Consequently, we expect thatsedge and shrub expansion upon permafrost thaw will lead to changes inlitter elemental composition and therefore affect nutrient cycling acrossthe sub-Arctic tundra with potential implications for further vegetationsuccession. 

Abstract Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. In this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13‐year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO₂fluxes throughout the 13‐year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP,R_eco, and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes. 

Abstract Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thawed soil carbon stocks, we quantified subsidence using high‐accuracy GPS and identified its environmental drivers in a permafrost warming experiment near the southern limit of permafrost in Alaska. With permafrost temperatures near 0°C, 10.8 cm of subsidence was observed in control plots over 9 years. Experimental air and soil warming increased subsidence by five times and created inundated microsites. Across treatments, ice and soil loss drove 85–91% and 9–15% of subsidence, respectively. Accounting for subsidence, permafrost thawed between 19% (control) and 49% (warming) deeper than active layer thickness indicated, and the amount of newly thawed carbon within the active layer was between 37% (control) and 113% (warming) greater. As additional carbon thaws as the active layer deepens, carbon fluxes to the atmosphere and lateral transport of carbon in groundwater could increase. The magnitude of this impact is uncertain at the landscape scale, though, due to limited subsidence measurements. Therefore, to determine the full extent of permafrost thaw across the circumpolar region and its feedback on the carbon cycle, it is necessary to quantify subsidence more broadly across the circumpolar region.