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As the catalogue of gravitational-wave transients grows, several entries appear ‘exceptional’ within the population. Tipping the scales with a total mass of $\sim 150 \,{\rm M}_\odot$, GW190521 likely contained black holes in the pair-instability mass gap. The event GW190814, meanwhile, is unusual for its extreme mass ratio and the mass of its secondary component. A growing model-building industry has emerged to provide explanations for such exceptional events, and Bayesian model selection is frequently used to determine the most informative model. However, Bayesian methods can only take us so far. They provide no answer to the question: does our model provide an adequate explanation for exceptional events in the data? If none of the models we are testing provide an adequate explanation, then it is not enough to simply rank our existing models – we need new ones. In this paper, we introduce a method to answer this question with a frequentist p-value. We apply the method to different models that have been suggested to explain the unusually massive event GW190521: hierarchical mergers in active galactic nuclei and globular clusters. We show that some (but not all) of these models provide adequate explanations for exceptionally massive events like GW190521.

 

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy usingtransdimensionalmodels, where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby), calledtBilby. ThetBilbypackage allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existingBilbyarchitecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when seeking to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modeled using a superposition ofNwavelets, whereNis itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modeled with small values ofN, whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have been used to describe instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations oftBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition ofNsine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop thetBilbycode suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems.

 

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems. 

Compact-object binaries including a white dwarf component are unique among gravitational-wave sources because their evolution is governed not just by general relativity and tides, but also by mass transfer. While the black hole and neutron star binaries observed with ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are driven to inspiral due to the emission of gravitational radiation—manifesting as a “chirp-like” gravitational-wave signal—the astrophysical processes at work in double white dwarf (DWD) systems can cause the inspiral to stall and even reverse into an outspiral. The dynamics of the DWD outspiral thus encode information about tides, which tell us about the behavior of electron-degenerate matter. We carry out a population study to determine the effect of the strength of tides on the distributions of the DWD binary parameters that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to constrain. We find that the strength of tidal coupling parameterized via the tidal synchronization timescale at the onset of mass transfer affects the distribution of gravitational-wave frequencies and frequency derivatives for detectably mass-transferring DWD systems. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework informed by binary population synthesis simulations, we demonstrate how this parameter can be inferred using LISA observations. By measuring the population properties of DWDs, LISA will be able to probe the behavior of electron-degenerate matter.

 

The formation history of binary black hole systems is imprinted on the distribution of their masses, spins, and eccentricity. While much has been learned studying these parameters in turn, recent studies have explored the joint distribution of binary black hole parameters in two or more dimensions. Most notably, it has recently been argued that binary black hole mass ratio and effective inspiral spin χeff are anticorrelated. We point out a previously overlooked subtlety in such 2D population studies: in order to conduct a controlled test for correlation, one ought to fix the two marginal distributions – lest the purported correlation be driven by improved fit in just one dimension. We address this subtlety using a tool from applied statistics: the copula density function. We use the previous work correlating mass ratio and χeff as a case study to demonstrate the power of copulas in gravitational-wave astronomy while scrutinizing their astrophysical inferences. Our findings, however, affirm their conclusions that binary black holes with unequal component masses exhibit larger χeff (98.7 per cent credibility). We conclude by discussing potential astrophysical implications of these findings as well as prospects for future studies using copulas.

 

Abstract Ultralight bosons are a proposed solution to outstanding problems in cosmology and particle physics: they provide a dark-matter candidate while potentially explaining the strong charge-parity problem. If they exist, ultralight bosons can interact with black holes through the superradiant instability. In this work we explore the consequences of this instability on the evolution of hierarchical black holes within dense stellar clusters. By reducing the spin of individual black holes, superradiance reduces the recoil velocity of merging binary black holes, which, in turn, increases the retention fraction of hierarchical merger remnants. We show that the existence of ultralight bosons with mass 2 × 10 −14 ≲ μ /eV ≲ 2 × 10 −13 would lead to an increased rate of hierarchical black hole mergers in nuclear star clusters. An ultralight boson in this energy range would result in up to ≈60% more present-day nuclear star clusters supporting hierarchical growth. The presence of an ultralight boson can also double the rate of intermediate-mass black hole mergers to ≈0.08 Gpc −3 yr −1 in the local universe. These results imply that a select range of ultralight boson masses can have far-reaching consequences for the population of black holes in dense stellar environments. Future studies into black hole cluster populations and the spin distribution of hierarchically formed black holes will test this scenario. 

Abstract Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are promising environments for the assembly of merging binary black hole (BBH) systems. Interest in AGNs as nurseries for merging BBHs is rising, following the detection of gravitational waves from a BBH system from the purported pair-instability mass gap, most notably GW190521. AGNs have also been invoked to explain the formation of the high-mass-ratio system GW190814. We draw on simulations of BBH systems in AGNs to propose a phenomenological model for the distribution of black hole spins of merging binaries in AGN disks. The model incorporates distinct features that make the AGN channel potentially distinguishable from other channels, such as assembly in the field and in globular clusters. The model parameters can be mapped heuristically to the age and density of the AGN disks. We estimate the extent to which different populations of mergers in AGNs can be distinguished. If the majority of merging black holes are assembled in AGNs, future gravitational-wave observations may provide insights into the dynamics of AGN disks. 

Many astronomical surveys are limited by the brightness of the sources, and gravitational-wave searches are no exception. The detectability of gravitational waves from merging binaries is affected by the mass and spin of the constituent compact objects. To perform unbiased inference on the distribution of compact binaries, it is necessary to account for this selection effect, which is known as Malmquist bias. Since systematic error from selection effects grows with the number of events, it will be increasingly important over the coming years to accurately estimate the observational selection function for gravitational-wave astronomy. We employ density estimation methods to accurately and efficiently compute the compact binary coalescence selection function. We introduce a simple pre-processing method, which significantly reduces the complexity of the required machine-learning models. We demonstrate that our method has smaller statistical errors at comparable computational cost than the method currently most widely used allowing us to probe narrower distributions of spin magnitudes. The currently used method leaves 10%–50% of the interesting black hole spin models inaccessible; our new method can probe >99% of the models and has a lower uncertainty for >80% of the models.

 

Orbital eccentricity is a key signature of dynamical binary black hole formation. The gravitational waves from a coalescing binary contain information about its orbital eccentricity, which may be measured if the binary retains sufficient eccentricity near merger. Dedicated waveforms are required to measure eccentricity. Several models have been put forward, and show good agreement with numerical relativity at the level of a few percent or better. However, there are multiple ways to define eccentricity for inspiralling systems, and different models internally use different definitions of eccentricity, making it difficult to compare eccentricity measurements directly. In this work, we systematically compare two eccentric waveform models,SEOBNREandTEOBResumS, by developing a framework to translate between different definitions of eccentricity. This mapping is constructed by minimizing the relative mismatch between the two models over eccentricity and reference frequency, before evolving the eccentricity of one model to the same reference frequency as the other model. We show that for a given value of eccentricity passed toSEOBNRE, one must input a 20%–50% smaller value of eccentricity toTEOBResumSin order to obtain a waveform with the same empirical eccentricity. We verify this mapping by repeating our analysis for eccentric numerical relativity simulations, demonstrating thatTEOBResumSreports a correspondingly smaller value of eccentricity thanSEOBNRE.