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Abstract Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes. 

Abstract The Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NEUS) is a highly productive and economically important region that has undergone substantial changes in recent years. Warming exceeds the global average and several episodes of anomalously warm, sustained temperatures have had profound impacts on regional fisheries. A majority of recent research studies focused on the analysis of temperature; however, salinity can serve as a valuable tracer as well. With now more than a decade of remote‐sensing sea surface salinity data, we shed new light onto salinity variability in the region with focus on the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and assess its role for modulating stratification on the shelf using historical hydrographic data. Local river discharge drives decreasing salinities not only in spring and summer on the shelf but also in the Slope Sea. In spring, fresher water aids the build‐up of stratification and a low salinity surface layer extends to the shelf break above the pycnocline by the beginning of summer. An observed salinification in the fall is linked to offshore forcing over the slope associated with the presence of Warm Core Rings. Coherent low‐frequency salinity variability is found over the slope and shelf, highlighting that shelf conditions are significantly impacted by offshore variability. Conditions on the NEUS in 2015 were characterized by anomalously high salinities, associated with a northerly position of the Gulf Stream. A freshening between 2015 and 2021, is in agreement with increased river cumulative discharge as well as lower offshore salinities. Overall, salinity serves as a valuable additional tracer of these multi‐variate processes. 

Abstract Volcanic eruptions can have significant climate impacts and serve as useful natural experiments for better understanding the effects of abrupt, externally forced climate change. Here, we investigate the Indian Ocean Dipole's (IOD) response to the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Post‐eruption composites show a strong negative IOD developing in the eruption year, and a positive IOD the following year. The IOD and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a long‐term damped oscillatory response that can take up to 8 years to return to pre‐eruptive baselines. Moreover, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase at the time of eruption controls the IOD response to intense eruptions, with negative (positive) IPO phasing favoring more negative (positive) IOD values via modulation of the background state of the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth. These results have important implications for climate risk in low‐likelihood, high‐impact scenarios, particularly in vulnerable communities unprepared for IOD and ENSO extremes. 

Abstract The Makassar Strait, the main passageway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), is an important component of Indo‐Pacific climate through its inter‐basin redistribution of heat and freshwater. Observational studies suggest that wind‐driven freshwater advection from the marginal seas into the Makassar Strait modulates the strait's surface transport. However, direct observations are too short (<15 years) to resolve variability on decadal timescales. Here we use a series of global ocean simulations to assess the advected freshwater contributions to ITF transport across a range of timescales. The simulated seasonal and interannual freshwater dynamics are consistent with previous studies. On decadal timescales, we find that wind‐driven advection of South China Sea (SCS) waters into the Makassar Strait modulates upper‐ocean ITF transport. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability appear to drive this mechanism via Pacific lower‐latitude western boundary current interactions that affect the SCS circulation. 

Abstract Research on Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) has focused primarily on AR (thermo)dynamics and hydrological impacts over land. However, the evolution and potential role of nearshore air‐sea fluxes during landfalling ARs are not well documented. Here, we examine synoptic evolutions of nearshore latent heat flux (LHF) during strong late‐winter landfalling ARs (1979–2017) using 138 overshelf buoys along the U. S. west coast. Composite evolutions show that ARs typically receive upward (absolute) LHF from the coastal ocean. LHF is small during landfall due to weak air‐sea humidity gradients but is strongest (30–50 W/m²along the coast) 1–3 days before/after landfall. During El Niño winters, southern‐coastal LHF strengthens, coincident with stronger ARs. A decomposition of LHF reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation dominate interannual LHF variations under ARs, suggesting a potential role for nearshore SST and LHF influencing the intensity of landfalling ARs. 

Iberia is predicted under future warming scenarios to be increasingly impacted by drought. While it is known that this region has experienced multiple intervals of enhanced aridity over the Holocene, additional hydroclimate-sensitive records from Iberia are necessary to place current and future drying into a broader perspective. Toward that end, we present a multi-proxy composite record from six well-dated and overlapping speleothems from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, located in western Portugal. The coherence between the six stalagmites in this composite stalagmite record illustrates that climate (not in-cave processes) impacts speleothem isotopic values. This record provides the first high-resolution, precisely dated, terrestrial record of Holocene hydroclimate from west-central Iberia. The BG record reveals that aridity in western Portugal increased secularly from 9.0 ka BP to present, as evidenced by rising values of both carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) stable isotope values. This trend tracks the decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and parallels Iberian margin sea surface temperatures (SST). The increased aridity over the Holocene is consistent with changes in Hadley Circulation and a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Centennial-scale shifts in hydroclimate are coincident with changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) after 4 ka BP. Several major drying events are evident, the most prominent of which was centered around 4.2 ka BP, a feature also noted in other Iberian climate records and coinciding with well-documented regional cultural shifts. Substantially, wetter conditions occurred from 0.8 ka BP to 0.15 ka BP, including much of the ‘Little Ice Age’. This was followed by increasing aridity toward present day. This composite stalagmite proxy record complements oceanic records from coastal Iberia, lacustrine records from inland Iberia, and speleothem records from both northern and southern Spain and depicts the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate in Iberia.