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The ion foreshock is highly dynamic, disturbing the bow shock and the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system. To forecast foreshock‐driven space weather effects, it is necessary to model foreshock ions as a function of upstream shock parameters. Case studies in the accompanying paper show that magnetosheath ions sometimes exhibit strong field‐aligned asymmetry toward the upstream direction, which may be responsible for enhancing magnetosheath leakage and therefore foreshock ion density. To understand the conditions leading to such asymmetry and the potential for enhanced leakage, we perform case studies and a statistical study of magnetosheath and foreshock region data surrounding ∼500 Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms mission bow shock crossings. We quantify the asymmetry using the heat flux along the field‐aligned direction. We show that the strong field‐aligned heat flux persists across the entire magnetosheath from the magnetopause to the bow shock. Ion distribution functions reveal that the strong heat flux is caused by a secondary thermal population. We find that stronger asymmetry events exhibit heat flux preferentially toward the upstream direction near the bow shock and occur under larger IMF strength and larger solar wind dynamic pressure and/or energy flux. Additionally, we show that near the bow shock, magnetosheath leakage is a significant contributor to foreshock ions, and through enhancing the leakage the magnetosheath ion asymmetry can modulate the foreshock ion velocity and density. Our results imply that likely due to field line draping and compression against the magnetopause that leads to a directional mirror force, modeling the foreshock ions necessitates a more global accounting of downstream conditions.

The ion foreshock, filled with backstreaming foreshock ions, is very dynamic with many transient structures that disturb the bow shock and the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system. It has been shown that foreshock ions can be generated through either solar wind reflection at the bow shock or leakage from the magnetosheath. While solar wind reflection is widely believed to be the dominant generation process, our investigation using Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms mission observations reveals that the relative importance of magnetosheath leakage has been underestimated. We show from case studies that when the magnetosheath ions exhibit field‐aligned anisotropy, a large fraction of them attains sufficient field‐aligned speed to escape upstream, resulting in very high foreshock ion density. The observed foreshock ion density, velocity, phase space density, and distribution function shape are consistent with such an escape or leakage process. Our results suggest that magnetosheath leakage could be a significant contributor to the formation of the ion foreshock. Further characterization of the magnetosheath leakage process is a critical step toward building predictive models of the ion foreshock, a necessary step to better forecast foreshock‐driven space weather effects.

In the ion foreshock, hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs) are two types of foreshock transients that have the strongest fluctuations, which can disturb the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system and increase shock acceleration efficiency. They form due to interaction between the foreshock ions and solar wind discontinuities: the direction of the foreshock ion‐driven current and whether it decreases or increases the magnetic field strength behind the discontinuity determine whether the transient's formation can be promoted or suppressed. Thus, to predict the HFA and FB formation and forecast their space weather effects, it is necessary to predict the foreshock ion‐driven current direction. In this study, we derive analytical equations of foreshock ion velocities within discontinuities to estimate foreshock ion‐driven current direction, which provides a quantitative criterion of HFA and FB formation. To validate the criterion, we use Acceleration Reconnection Turbulence & Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun to observe pristine solar wind discontinuities and calculate discontinuity parameters. We use Magnetospheric Multiscale to observe the foreshock ion motion around the discontinuities and show that the data support our model. This study is another step toward a predictive model of HFA and FB formation so that we can forecast their space weather effects at Earth using solar wind observations at lunar orbit or L1.

When a solar wind discontinuity interacts with foreshock ions, foreshock transients such as hot flow anomalies and foreshock bubbles can form. These create significant dynamic pressure perturbations disturbing the bow shock, magnetopause, and magnetosphere‐ionosphere system. However, presently these phenomena are not predictable. In the accompanying paper, we derived analytical equations of foreshock ion partial gyration around a discontinuity and the resultant current density. In this study, we utilize the derived current density strength to model the energy conversion from the foreshock ions, which drives the outward motion or expansion of the solar wind plasma away from the discontinuity. We show that the model expansion speeds match those from local hybrid simulations for varying foreshock ion parameters. Using MMS, we conduct a statistical study showing that the model expansion speeds are moderately correlated with the magnetic field strength variations and the dynamic pressure decreases around discontinuities with correlation coefficients larger than 0.5. We use conjunctions between ARTEMIS and MMS to show that the model expansion speeds are typically large for those already‐formed foreshock transients. Our results show that our model can be reasonably successful in predicting significant dynamic pressure disturbances caused by foreshock ion‐discontinuity interactions. We discuss ways to improve the model in the future.

Foreshock transients, including hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs), are frequently observed in the ion foreshock. Their significant dynamic pressure perturbations can disturb the bow shock, resulting in disturbances in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. They can also contribute to particle acceleration at their parent bow shock. These disturbances and particle acceleration caused by the foreshock transients are not yet predictable, however. In this study, we take the first step in establishing a first‐order predictive expansion speed model for FBs (which are simpler than HFAs). Starting with energy conversion from foreshock ions to solar wind ions, we derive the FB expansion speed in the FB's early formation stage and late expansion stage as a function of foreshock and solar wind parameters. We use local hybrid simulations with varying parameters to fit and improve the early stage model and 1D particle‐in‐cell simulations to test the late‐stage model. By comparing model results with Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) observations, we adjust the late‐stage model and show that it can predict the FB expansion speed. Our study provides a foundation for predictive models of foreshock transient formation and expansion, so that we can eventually forecast their space weather effects and particle acceleration at shocks.

Hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs) are frequently observed in Earth's foreshock, which can significantly disturb the bow shock and therefore the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system and can accelerate particles. Previous statistical studies have identified the solar wind conditions (high solar wind speed and high Mach number, etc.) that favor their generation. However, backstreaming foreshock ions are expected to most directly control how HFAs and FBs form, whereas the solar wind may partake in the formation process indirectly by determining foreshock ion properties. Using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms mission, we perform a statistical study of foreshock ion properties around 275 HFAs and FBs. We show that foreshock ions with a high foreshock‐to‐solar wind density ratio (>∼3%), high kinetic energy (>∼600 eV), large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy (>∼0.1), and large ratio of perpendicular temperature to parallel temperature (>∼1.4) favor HFA and FB formation. We also examine how these properties are related to solar wind conditions: high solar wind speed and oblique bow shock (angle between the interplanetary magnetic field and the bow shock normal) favor high kinetic energy of foreshock ions; foreshock ions have large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy at large(>30°); small(<30°), high Mach number, and closeness to the bow shock favor a high foreshock‐to‐solar wind density ratio. Our results provide further understanding of HFA and FB formation.

Foreshock transient (FT) events are frequently observed phenomena that are generated by discontinuities in the solar wind. These transient events are known to trigger global‐scale magnetic field perturbations (e.g., ULF waves). We report a series of FT events observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission in the upstream bow shock region under quiet solar wind conditions. During the event, ground magnetometers observed significant Pc1 wave activity as well as magnetic impulse events in both hemispheres. Ground Pc1 wave observations show ∼8 min time delay (with some time differences) from each FT event which is observed at the bow shock. We also find that the ground Pc1 waves are observed earlier in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere. The observation time difference between the hemispheres implies that the source region of the wave is the off‐equatorial region.