Search for: All records

The Common Era history of effective moisture in the Central Andes is poorly understood, as most Andean proxy records reflect large-scale atmospheric circulation over the South American lowlands rather than localized precipitation vs. evaporation. Here we present 1800-year leaf wax hydrogen and carbon isotope sedimentary records from Lake Chacacocha (13.96°S, 71.08°W, 4,860 m asl.) in the Central Andes. Leaf wax δ2H from different chain lengths offers information about large-scale atmospheric conditions and local-scale effective moisture. Our leaf wax δ2H data record a gradual intensification of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) beginning around ~1250 CE, prior to the external forcings of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Despite peak SASM intensification, our leaf wax δ13C data reveal a locally arid interval between ca. 1600 and 1800 CE. The arid interval was most likely driven by enhanced evaporation and reduced local precipitation, as indicated by the hydrogen isotope fractionation between mid- and long-chain n-alkanes as well as by climate model simulations. Our results help to reconcile conflicting interpretations of the SASM, glacial, and lake-level histories in the Central Andes during the Common Era. 

The South American summer monsoon (SASM) profoundly influences tropical South America’s climate, yet understanding its low-frequency variability has been challenging. Climate models and oxygen isotope data have been used to examine the SASM variability over the last millennium (LM) but have, at times, provided conflicting findings, especially regarding its mean-state change from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. Here, we use a paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) method, combining model results and δ¹⁸O observations, to produce a δ¹⁸O-enabled, dynamically coherent, and spatiotemporally complete austral summer hydroclimate reconstruction over the LM for tropical South America at 5-year resolution. This reconstruction aligns with independent hydroclimate and δ¹⁸O records withheld from the DA, revealing a centennial-scale SASM intensification during the MCA-LIA transition period, associated with the southward shift of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone and the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation (PWC). This highlights the necessity of accurately representing the PWC in climate models to predict future SASM changes. 

Abstract Tropical South American climate is influenced by the South American Summer Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, assessing natural hydroclimate variability in the region is hindered by the scarcity of long-term instrumental records. Here we present a tree-ringδ¹⁸O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano for 1700–2013 C.E., derived fromPolylepis tarapacanatree rings. This record explains 56% of December–March instrumental precipitation variability in the Altiplano. The tree-ringδ¹⁸O chronology shows interannual (2–5 years) and decadal (~11 years) oscillations that are remarkably consistent with periodicities observed in Altiplano precipitation, central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, southern-tropical Andean ice coreδ¹⁸O and tropical Pacific coralδ¹⁸O archives. These results demonstrate the value of annual-resolution tree-ringδ¹⁸O records to capture hydroclimate teleconnections and generate robust tropical climate reconstructions. This work contributes to a better understanding of global oxygen-isotope patterns, as well as atmospheric and oceanic processes across the tropics. 

Abstract A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions. 

The Mantaro River Basin is one of the most important regions in the central Peruvian Andes in terms of hydropower generation and agricultural production. Contributions to better understanding of the climate and hydrological dynamics are vital for this region and constitute key information to support regional water security and socioeconomic resilience. This study presents eight years of monthly isotopic precipitation information (δ18O, Dxs) collected in the Mantaro River Basin. The isotopic signals were evaluated in terms of moisture sources, including local and regional climatic parameters, to interpret their variability at monthly and interannual timescales. It is proposed that the degree of rainout upstream and the transport history of air masses, also related to regional atmospheric features, are the main factors influencing the δ18O variability. Moreover, significant correlations with precipitation amount and relative humidity imply that local processes in this region of the Andes also exert important control over isotopic variability. Two extreme regional climate events (the 2010 drought and the 2017 coastal El Niño) were evaluated to determine how regional atmospheric circulation affects the rainfall isotope variability. Based on these results, recommendations for hydroclimate studies and paleoclimate reconstructions are proposed in the context of the Mantaro River Basin. This study intends to encourage new applications considering geochemical evidence for hydrological studies over the central Andean region. 

Abstract The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2)'s abilities to simulate the impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) on South American precipitation and temperature have not been assessed, and how the AMV and PMV modulate each other's influences on South American climate is not well understood. Here we use observations, reanalyses, and CESM1 and CESM2 simulations from 1920 to 2015 to study those problems. The models can reproduce the observed precipitation and temperature responses to AMV well, but can only roughly reproduce such responses to PMV. The precipitation response over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) is better simulated by CESM2 compared to CESM1, which is associated with an improved horizontal moisture flux over this region. However, the models cannot accurately simulate the observed differences between the influences of Pacific interannual and multidecadal variability on South American precipitation and temperature. The impacts of AMV and PMV on South American precipitation are modulated by the other mode via changes in horizontal moisture flux over the SACZ and River Plate basin in summer, as well as changes in vertical motion over the equatorial regions in winter. Similarly, the impacts of AMV and PMV on South American temperature are also modulated by the other mode. Over water‐limited regions, such as northeastern Brazil and southern Argentina, the precipitation and temperature responses are anti‐correlated, possibly via surface evaporation. 

Abstract We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the last millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the last millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first posteruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold posteruption anomalies, we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large, low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia. Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of posteruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire last millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies and offer important new evidence that large, low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia. 

The impacts of the interdecadal variability of the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans on precipitation over the Central Andes during the austral summer (December-January-February, DJF) are investigated for the 1921–2010 period based on monthly gridded precipitation data and low-pass filtered time series of the Niño 4 index (IN4), the Niño 1 + 2 index with Niño 3.4 index removed (IN1+2 * ), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) indices, and the three first rotated principal components of the interdecadal component of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of precipitation in the Central Andes (10°S–30°S) yields two leading modes, RPC1 and RPC2, which represent 40.4% and 18.6% of the total variance, respectively. REOF1 features a precipitation dipole between the northern Bolivian and the Chilean Altiplano. REOF2 also features a precipitation dipole, with highest negative loading over the southern Peruvian Andes. The REOF1 positive phase is associated with moisture transport from the lowlands toward the Bolivian Altiplano, induced by upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the Central Andes. At the same time conditions tend to be dry over the southern Peruvian Andes. The positive phase of REOF2 is related to weakened moisture transport, induced by upper-level westerly wind anomalies over Peru. The IPO warm phase induces significant dry anomalies over the Bolivian Altiplano, albeit weaker than during the IN4 warm phase, via upper-level westerly wind anomalies over the Central Andes. No significant relationship was found between Central Andean precipitation and the AMO on interdecadal timescales.