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  1. Abstract

    Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<1010M) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

  2. Abstract

    The extent to which turbulence mixes gas in the face of recurrent infusions of fresh metals by supernovae (SN) could help provide important constraints on the local star formation conditions. This includes predictions of the metallicity dispersion among metal-poor stars, which suggests that the interstellar medium was not very well mixed at these early times. The purpose of thisLetteris to help isolate, via a series of numerical experiments, some of the key processes that regulate turbulent mixing of SN elements in galactic disks. We study the gas interactions in small simulated patches of a galaxy disk with the goal of resolving the small-scale mixing effects of metals at parsec scales, which enables us to measure the turbulent diffusion coefficient in various galaxy environments. By investigating the statistics of variations ofαelements in these simulations, we are able to derive constraints not only on the allowed range of intrinsic yield variations in SN explosions but also on the star formation history of the Milky Way. We argue that the observed dispersion of [Mg/Fe] in metal-poor halo stars is compatible with the star-forming conditions expected in dwarf satellites or in an early low-star-forming Milky Way progenitor. In particular, metal variations in starsmore »that have not been phase-mixed can be used to infer the star-forming conditions of disrupted dwarf satellites.

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  3. Abstract Early-type galaxies (ETGs) possess total density profiles close to isothermal, which can lead to non-Gaussian line-of-sight velocity dispersion (LOSVD) under anisotropic stellar orbits. However, recent observations of local ETGs in the MASSIVE Survey reveal outer kinematic structures at 1.5Reff (effective radius) that are inconsistent with fixed isothermal density profiles; the authors proposed varying density profiles as an explanation. We aim to verify this conjecture and understand the influence of stellar assembly on these kinematic features through mock ETGs in IllustrisTNG. We create mock Integral-Field-Unit observations to extract projected stellar kinematic features for 207 ETGs with stellar mass M* ≥ 1011 M⊙ in TNG100-1. The mock observations reproduce the key outer (1.5Reff) kinematic structures in the MASSIVE ETGs, including the puzzling positive correlation between velocity dispersion profile outer slope γouter and the kurtosis h4’s gradient. We find that h4 is uncorrelated with stellar orbital anisotropy beyond Reff; instead we find that the variations in γouter and outer h4 (a good proxy for h4 gradient) are both driven by variations of the density profile at the outskirts across different ETGs. These findings corroborate the proposed conjecture and rule out velocity anisotropy as the origin of non-Gaussian outer kinematic structure in ETGs. Wemore »also find that the outer kurtosis and anisotropy correlate with different stellar assembly components, with the former related to minor mergers or flyby interactions while the latter is mainly driven by major mergers, suggesting distinct stellar assembly origins that decorrelates the two quantities.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 19, 2023
  4. Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2023
  5. ABSTRACT Cosmological constraints from current and upcoming galaxy cluster surveys are limited by the accuracy of cluster mass calibration. In particular, optically identified galaxy clusters are prone to selection effects that can bias the weak lensing mass calibration. We investigate the selection bias of the stacked cluster lensing signal associated with optically selected clusters, using clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm in the Buzzard simulations as a case study. We find that at a given cluster halo mass, the residuals of redMaPPer richness and weak lensing signal are positively correlated. As a result, for a given richness selection, the stacked lensing signal is biased high compared with what we would expect from the underlying halo mass probability distribution. The cluster lensing selection bias can thus lead to overestimated mean cluster mass and biased cosmology results. We show that the lensing selection bias exhibits a strong scale dependence and is approximately 20–60 per cent for ΔΣ at large scales. This selection bias largely originates from spurious member galaxies within ±20–60 $h^{-1}\, \rm Mpc$ along the line of sight, highlighting the importance of quantifying projection effects associated with the broad redshift distribution of member galaxies in photometric cluster surveys. While our results qualitatively agree withmore »those in the literature, accurate quantitative modelling of the selection bias is needed to achieve the goals of cluster lensing cosmology and will require synthetic catalogues covering a wide range of galaxy–halo connection models.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 11, 2023
  6. ABSTRACT We implement a model for the two-point statistics of biased tracers that combines dark matter dynamics from N-body simulations with an analytic Lagrangian bias expansion. Using Aemulus, a suite of N-body simulations built for emulation of cosmological observables, we emulate the cosmology dependence of these non-linear spectra from redshifts z = 0 to z = 2. We quantify the accuracy of our emulation procedure, which is sub-per cent at $k=1\, h \,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ for the redshifts probed by upcoming surveys and improves at higher redshifts. We demonstrate its ability to describe the statistics of complex tracer samples, including those with assembly bias and baryonic effects, reliably fitting the clustering and lensing statistics of such samples at redshift z ≃ 0.4 to scales of $k_{\rm max} \approx 0.6\, h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$. We show that the emulator can be used for unbiased cosmological parameter inference in simulated joint clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing analyses with data drawn from an independent N-body simulation. These results indicate that our emulator is a promising tool that can be readily applied to the analysis of current and upcoming data sets from galaxy surveys.
  7. Abstract We present the current state of models for the z ∼ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc −1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μ K 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μ K 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ∼ 1 Mpc −1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, Tb 2 ≲ 50 μ K 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 Mmore »⊙ Mpc −3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2023