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Abstract This study describes data-denial experiments conducted to examine the impact of assimilating subsets of data from the Targeted Observation by Radars and Unoccupied Aerial Systems of Supercells (TORUS) project on storm-scale ensemble forecasts of two supercells on 8 June 2019. Assimilated data from TORUS include mobile mesonet, unoccupied aerial system (UAS), and radiosonde observations. The TORUS data are divided into three spatial subsets to evaluate the importance of observing different parts of the atmosphere on forecasts of this case: the surface (SFC) subset consisting of just the near-surface mobile mesonet observations, the PBL subset consisting of UAS observations and radiosonde profiles below 762 m, and the FREE subset consisting of radiosonde profiles above 762 m. Data-denial experiments are then conducted by comparing analyses and free forecasts generated using a cycled EnKF data assimilation system assimilating conventional observations, radar observations, and all of the TORUS observations at once with experiments where one of the three subsets is removed in turn as well as a control experiment assimilating only conventional and radar observations. Our results show that assimilating all of the TORUS observations at once in the ALL experiment improves the storm-scale ensemble forecasts much more often than it degrades them and that no one subset of the TORUS data was consistently most important for improving the analyses or forecasts.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2026
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Axon, Kristen L.; Houston, Adam L.; Ziegler, Conrad L.; Weiss, Christopher C.; Rasmussen, Erik N.; Coniglio, Michael C.; Argrow, Brian; Frew, Eric; Swenson, Sara; Reinhart, Anthony E.; et al (, Monthly Weather Review)Abstract On 28 May 2019, a tornadic supercell, observed as part of Targeted Observation by UAS and Radars of Supercells (TORUS) produced an EF-2 tornado near Tipton, Kansas. The supercell was observed to interact with multiple preexisting airmass boundaries. These boundaries and attendant air masses were examined using unoccupied aircraft system (UAS), mobile mesonets, radiosondes, and dual-Doppler analyses derived from TORUS mobile radars. The cool-side air mass of one of these boundaries was found to have higher equivalent potential temperature and backed winds relative to the warm-side air mass; features associated with mesoscale air masses with high theta-e (MAHTEs). It is hypothesized that these characteristics may have facilitated tornadogenesis. The two additional boundaries were produced by a nearby supercell and appeared to weaken the tornadic supercell. This work represents the first time that UAS have been used to examine the impact of preexisting airmass boundaries on a supercell, and it provides insights into the influence environmental heterogeneities can have on the evolution of a supercell.more » « less
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