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Abstract Reliability can be predicted by a limit-state function, which may vary with time and space. This work extends the envelope method for a time-dependent limit-state function to a time- and space-dependent limit-state function. The proposed method uses the envelope function of time- and space-dependent limit-state function. It at first searches for the most probable point (MPP) of the envelope function using the sequential efficient global optimization in the domain of the space and time under consideration. Then the envelope function is approximated by a quadratic function at the MPP for which analytic gradient and Hessian matrix of the envelope function are derived. Subsequently, the second-order saddlepoint approximation method is employed to estimate the probability of failure. Three examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The method can efficiently produce an accurate reliability prediction when the MPP is within the domain of the space and time under consideration.

We present Symphony, a compilation of 262 cosmological, cold-dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations spanning four decades of host halo mass, from 10¹¹–10¹⁵M_⊙. This compilation includes three existing simulation suites at the cluster and Milky Way–mass scales, and two new suites: 39 Large Magellanic Cloud-mass (10¹¹M_⊙) and 49 strong-lens-analog (10¹³M_⊙) group-mass hosts. Across the entire host halo mass range, the highest-resolution regions in these simulations are resolved with a dark matter particle mass of ≈3 × 10⁻⁷times the host virial mass and a Plummer-equivalent gravitational softening length of ≈9 × 10⁻⁴times the host virial radius, on average. We measure correlations between subhalo abundance and host concentration, formation time, and maximum subhalo mass, all of which peak at the Milky Way host halo mass scale. Subhalo abundances are ≈50% higher in clusters than in lower-mass hosts at fixed sub-to-host halo mass ratios. Subhalo radial distributions are approximately self-similar as a function of host mass and are less concentrated than hosts’ underlying dark matter distributions. We compare our results to the semianalytic modelGalacticus, which predicts subhalo mass functions with a higher normalization at the low-mass end and radial distributions that are slightly more concentrated than Symphony. We useUniverseMachineto model halo and subhalo star formationmore »histories in Symphony, and we demonstrate that these predictions resolve the formation histories of the halos that host nearly all currently observable satellite galaxies in the universe. To promote open use of Symphony, data products are publicly available athttp://web.stanford.edu/group/gfc/symphony.

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Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites have been increasingly used in many vehicles such as airplanes, automobiles, and ships due to the advantages of high-strength, high-modulus, lightweight, and corrosion resistance. CFRP structures enhance the vehicle's performance, energy-efficiency, comfort, and safety. However, a common safety concern is how the CFRP materials perform when the vehicle is in fire and if there are enough time to safely evacuate the passengers. The elevated temperature can soften and decompose the polymer matrix, delaminate the CFRP laminate, and burn the CFRP through the contact with oxygen. As a result, the thermal and flammability response of CFRP is important for considering CFRP for vehicle applications; and some specialty high-temperature or flame/smoke/toxicity-proven resins have been investigated for CFRP parts manufacturing due to the needs. In this paper, a novel flame resistant hypothesis of utilizing the unique nano/micro- interlocked fiber reinforcing structure of the long-range carbon nanofiber z-threaded CFRP (ZT-CFRP) composite laminates for improving the flammability performance will be investigated. The carbon nanofibers (CNT) and carbon nanotubes (CNT), which have excellent thermal and mechanical properties, will be dispersed in an epoxy resin and will zig-zag thread through a carbon fiber fabric using an electrical/flow assisted impregnation process tomore »create the unidirectional ZT-CFRP prepregs, respectively, which will be further processed into ZT-CFRP composite laminates. The UL-94 flammability test will be employed to characterize the ZT-CFRP laminates' flammability performance against the control baseline data of the regular CFRP, all without using any flame retardant chemicals. An impressive self-extinguishing flammability characteristic of the CNF based ZT-CFRP samples has been distinctly identified from all the samples. The UL-94 testing results and the effectiveness of using the long-range nanofiber z-threading strategy for enabling the novel nano/microstructure-induced flame resistant and self-extinguishing characteristics will be discussed.« less

Abstract Tornadoes are responsible for considerable property damage and loss of life across the state of Oklahoma. While several studies have explored drivers of tornado adjustment behaviors, their results are not consistent in terms of their significance and direction. To address this shortcoming in the literature, we surveyed households using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure from counties in Oklahoma that frequently experience tornado threats to explore drivers of adjustments. We used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore relationships among variables highlighted in the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and related literature that affect adjustment intentions and risk perceptions. Overall, we found the factors highlighted in the PMT are effective at explaining households’ intentions of adopting adjustment behaviors associated with tornado hazards. Threat appraisals, however, were less important than coping appraisals in explaining tornado hazard adjustment intentions. In further analysis, we grouped adjustments as 1) basic (e.g., flashlight, food and water supply) and 2) complex (e.g., insurance, storm shelter), and found that while coping appraisals are significant drivers of both adjustment categories, the effect of threat appraisals is only significant for complex adjustment intentions. We also found that emotional responses to hazards are major drivers of threat appraisals, stronger than perceived knowledgemore »and hazard salience. Moreover, we found that demographic characteristics affect both adjustment intentions and threat appraisals. The additions to the PMT and categorization of adjustment activities improve our understanding of the PMT in different contexts. Such insights provide scholars and emergency managers with strategies for risk communication efforts.« less

Aerosol-boundary layer interactions play an important role in affecting atmospheric thermodynamics and air pollution. As a key factor in dictating the development of the boundary layer, the entrainment process in the context of aerosol-boundary layer interactions is still poorly understood. Using comprehensive field observations made at a superstation in Beijing, we gain insight into the response of the entrainment process to aerosols. We found that high aerosol loading can significantly suppress the entrainment rate, breaking the conventional linear relationship between sensible heat fluxes and entrainment fluxes. Related to aerosol vertical distributions, aerosol heating effects can alter vertical heat fluxes, leading to a strong interaction between aerosols and the entrainment process in the upper boundary layer. Such aerosol-entrainment coupling can inhibit boundary layer development and explains the great sensitivity of observed entrainment rates to aerosols than can traditional calculations. The notable impact of aerosols on the entrainment process raises holistic thinking about the dynamic framework of the boundary layer in a polluted atmosphere, which may have a significant bearing on the dispersion of air pollutants and the land-atmosphere coupling.

The layout of public service facilities and their accessibility are important factors affecting spatial justice. Previous studies have verified the positive influence of public facilities accessibility on house prices; however, the spatial scale of the impact of various public facilities accessibility on house prices is not yet clear. This study takes transportation analysis zone of Wuhan city as the spatial unit, measure the public facilities accessibility of schools, hospitals, green space, and public transit stations with four kinds of accessibility models such as the nearest distance, real time travel cost, kernel density, and two step floating catchment area (2SFCA), and explores the multiscale effect of public services accessibility on house prices with multiscale geographically weighted regression model. The results show that the differentiated scale effect not only exists among different public facility accessibilities, but also exists in different accessibility models of the same sort of facility. The article also suggests that different facilities should adopt its appropriate accessibility model. This study provides insights into spatial heterogeneity of urban public service facilities accessibility, which will benefit decision making in equal accessibility planning and policy formulation for the layout of urban service facilities.

ABSTRACT Cosmological constraints from current and upcoming galaxy cluster surveys are limited by the accuracy of cluster mass calibration. In particular, optically identified galaxy clusters are prone to selection effects that can bias the weak lensing mass calibration. We investigate the selection bias of the stacked cluster lensing signal associated with optically selected clusters, using clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm in the Buzzard simulations as a case study. We find that at a given cluster halo mass, the residuals of redMaPPer richness and weak lensing signal are positively correlated. As a result, for a given richness selection, the stacked lensing signal is biased high compared with what we would expect from the underlying halo mass probability distribution. The cluster lensing selection bias can thus lead to overestimated mean cluster mass and biased cosmology results. We show that the lensing selection bias exhibits a strong scale dependence and is approximately 20–60 per cent for ΔΣ at large scales. This selection bias largely originates from spurious member galaxies within ±20–60 $h^{-1}\, \rm Mpc$ along the line of sight, highlighting the importance of quantifying projection effects associated with the broad redshift distribution of member galaxies in photometric cluster surveys. While our results qualitatively agree withmore »those in the literature, accurate quantitative modelling of the selection bias is needed to achieve the goals of cluster lensing cosmology and will require synthetic catalogues covering a wide range of galaxy–halo connection models.« less