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While a poleward shift of the near-surface jet and storm track in response to increased greenhouse gases appears to be robust, the magnitude of this change is uncertain and differs across models, and the mechanisms for this change are poorly constrained. An intermediate complexity GCM is used in this study to explore the factors governing the magnitude of the poleward shift and the mechanisms involved. The degree to which parameterized subgrid-scale convection is inhibited has a leading-order effect on the poleward shift, with a simulation with more convection (and less large-scale precipitation) simulating a significantly weaker shift, and eventually no shift at all if convection is strongly preferred over large-scale precipitation. Many of the physical processes proposed to drive the poleward shift are equally active in all simulations (even those with no poleward shift). Hence, we can conclude that these mechanisms are not of leading-order significance for the poleward shift in any of the simulations. The thermodynamic budget, however, provides useful insight into differences in the jet and storm track response among the simulations. It helps identify midlatitude moisture and latent heat release as a crucial differentiator. These results have implications for intermodel spread in the jet, hydrological cycle, and storm track response to increased greenhouse gases in intermodel comparison projects.

 

Over the past 15 years, numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward over the late 20 th century and early 21 st century. Early estimates of this tropical widening from satellite observations and reanalyses varied from 0.25° to 3° latitude per decade, while estimates from global climate models show widening at the lower end of the observed range. In 2016, two working groups, the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project, were formed to synthesize current understanding of the magnitude, causes, and impacts of the recent tropical widening evident in observations. These working groups concluded that the large rates of observed tropical widening noted by earlier studies resulted from their use of metrics that poorly capture changes in the Hadley circulation, or from the use of reanalyses that contained spurious trends. Accounting for these issues reduces the range of observed expansion rates to 0.25°–0.5° latitude decade -1 —within the range from model simulations. Models indicate that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere tropical widening is consistent with natural variability, whereas increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone likely played an important role in Southern Hemisphere widening. Whatever the cause or rate of expansion, understanding the regional impacts of tropical widening requires additional work, as different forcings can produce different regional patterns of widening. 

A moist General Circulation Model is used to investigate the forcing of the Asian monsoon and the associated upper level anticyclone by land‐sea contrast, net horizontal oceanic heat transport, and topography. The monsoonal pattern is not simply the linear additive sum of the response to each forcing; only when all three forcings are included simultaneously does the monsoonal circulation extend westward to India. This nonadditivity impacts the location of the upper level anticyclone, which is shifted eastward and weaker if the forcings are imposed individually. Sahelian precipitation, and also austral summer precipitation over Australia, southern Africa, and South America, are likewise stronger if all forcings are imposed simultaneously. The source of the nonlinearity can be diagnosed using gross moist stability, but appears inconsistent with the land‐sea breeze paradigm. This non‐additivity implies that the question of which forcing is most important may be ill‐posed in many regions.