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Abstract In migratory birds, among- and within-species heterogeneity in response to climate change may be attributed to differences in migration distance and environmental cues that affect timing of arrival at breeding grounds. We used eBird observations and a within-species comparative approach to examine whether migration distance (with latitude as a proxy) and weather predictors can explain spring arrival dates at the breeding site in a raptor species with a widespread distribution and diverse migration strategies, the American Kestrel Falco sparverius. We found an interactive effect between latitude and spring minimum temperatures on arrival dates, whereby at lower latitudes (short-distance migrants) American Kestrels arrived earlier in warmer springs and later in colder springs, but American Kestrels at higher latitudes (long-distance migrants) showed no association between arrival time and spring temperatures. Increased snow cover delayed arrival at all latitudes. Our results support the hypothesis that short-distance migrants are better able to respond to conditions on the breeding ground than are long-distance migrants, suggesting that long-distance migrants may be more vulnerable to shifts in spring conditions that could lead to phenological mismatch between peak resources and nesting. 

The structure and composition of plant communities in drylands are highly variable across scales, from microsites to landscapes. Fine spatial resolution field surveys of dryland plants are essential to unravel the impact of climate change; however, traditional field data collection is challenging considering sampling efforts and costs. Unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) can alleviate this challenge by providing standardized measurements of plant community attributes with high resolution. However, given widespread heterogeneity in plant communities in drylands, and especially across environmental gradients, the transferability of UAS imagery protocols is unclear. Plant functional types (PFTs) are a classification scheme that aggregates the diversity of plant structure and function. We mapped and modeled PFTs and fractional photosynthetic cover using the same UAS imagery protocol across three dryland communities, differentiated by a landscape‐scale gradient of elevation and precipitation. We compared the accuracy of the UAS products between the three dryland sites. PFT classifications and modeled photosynthetic cover had highest accuracies at higher elevations (2241 m) with denser vegetation. The lowest site (1101 m), with more bare ground, had the least agreement with the field data. Notably, shrub cover was well predicted across the gradient of elevation and precipitation (~230–1100 mm/year). UAS surveys captured the heterogeneity of plant cover across sites and presented options to measure leaf‐level composition and structure at landscape levels. Our results demonstrate that some PFTs (i.e., shrubs) can readily be detected across sites using the same UAS imagery protocols, while others (i.e., grasses) may require site‐specific flight protocols for best accuracy. As UAS are increasingly used to monitor dryland vegetation, developing protocols that maximize information and efficiency is a research and management priority.

 

Species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on regional‐scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local‐scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land‐use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional‐scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human‐induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentataNutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human‐induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field‐sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America. Models including fire attributes and restoration treatments performed better than those including only climate and topographic variables. Number of fires and fire occurrence had the strongest relative effects on big sagebrush occurrence and cover, respectively. The models predicted that the probability of big sagebrush occurrence decreases by 1.2% (95% CI: −6.9%, 0.6%) when one fire occurs and cover decreases by 44.7% (95% CI: −47.9%, −41.3%) if at least one fire occurred over the 36 year period of record. Restoration practices increased the probability of big sagebrush occurrence but had minimal effect on cover. Our results demonstrate the potential value of including disturbance and land management along with climate in models to predict species distributions. As an increasing number of datasets representing land‐use history become available, we anticipate that our modeling framework will have broad relevance across a range of biomes and species.