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When testing hypotheses about which of two competing models is better, say A and B, the difference is often not significant. An alternative, complementary approach, is to measure how often model A is better than model B regardless of how slight or large the difference. The hypothesis concerns whether or not the percentage of time that model A is better than model B is larger than 50%. One generalized test statistic that can be used is the power-divergence test, which encompasses many familiar goodness-of-fit test statistics, such as the loglikelihood-ratio and PearsonX²tests. Theoretical results justify using thedistribution for the entire family of test statistics, wherekis the number of categories. However, these results assume that the underlying data are independent and identically distributed, which is often violated. Empirical results demonstrate that the reduction to two categories (i.e., model A is better than model B versus model B is better than A) results in a test that is reasonably robust to even severe departures from temporal independence, as well as contemporaneous correlation. The test is demonstrated on two different example verification sets: 6-h forecasts of eddy dissipation rate (m^2/3s⁻¹) from two versions of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance model and for 12-h forecasts of 2-m temperature (°C) and 10-m wind speed (m s⁻¹) from two versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model. The novelty of this paper is in demonstrating the utility of the power-divergence statistic in the face of temporally dependent data, as well as the emphasis on testing for the “frequency-of-better” alongside more traditional measures.

 

A quantitative understanding of pH, acid-base equilibria, and chemical speciation in natural waters including seawater is needed in applications ranging from global change to environmental and water quality management. In a previous study (Humphreys et al., 2022) we implemented a model of solutions containing the ions of artificial seawater, based upon the use of the Pitzer equations for the calculation of activity coefficients and including, for the first time, the propagation of uncertainties. This was extended (Clegg et al., 2022) to include the Tris buffer solutions that are used to calibrate the seawater total pH scale. Here we apply the same methods to develop a model of solutions containing the ions of standard reference seawater, based upon studies by Millero and co-workers. We compare the predictions of the model to literature data for: the dissociation of dissolved CO2 and bicarbonate ion; boric acid dissociation; saturation with respect to calcite, the ion product of water, and osmotic coefficients of seawater. Estimates of the uncertainty contributions of all thermodynamic equilibrium constants and Pitzer parameters to the variance of the calculated quantity are used to determine which elements of the model need improvement, with the aim of agreeing with properties noted above to within their experimental uncertainty. Further studies are recommended. Comparisons made with several datasets for carbonate system dissociation in seawater suggest which are the most reliable, and identify low salinity waters (S <10) as a region for which dissociation constants of bicarbonate are not yet accurately known. At present, the model is likely to be most useful for the direct calculation of equilibria in natural waters of arbitrary composition, or for adjusting dissociation constants known for seawater media to values for natural waters in which the relative compositions of the major ions are different. 

Radiative transfer (RT) is a crucial but computationally expensive process in numerical weather/climate prediction. We develop neural networks (NN) to emulate a common RT parameterization called the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM), with the goal of creating a faster parameterization for the Global Forecast System (GFS) v16. In previous work we emulated a highly simplified version of the shortwave RRTM only—excluding many predictor variables, driven by Rapid Refresh forecasts interpolated to a consistent height grid, using only 30 sites in the Northern Hemisphere. In this work we emulate the full shortwave and longwave RRTM—with all predictor variables, driven by GFSv16 forecasts on the native pressure–sigma grid, using data from around the globe. We experiment with NNs of widely varying complexity, including the U-net++ and U-net3+ architectures and deeply supervised training, designed to ensure realistic and accurate structure in gridded predictions. We evaluate the optimal shortwave NN and optimal longwave NN in great detail—as a function of geographic location, cloud regime, and other weather types. Both NNs produce extremely reliable heating rates and fluxes. The shortwave NN has an overall RMSE/MAE/bias of 0.14/0.08/−0.002 K day⁻¹for heating rate and 6.3/4.3/−0.1 W m⁻²for net flux. Analogous numbers for the longwave NN are 0.22/0.12/−0.0006 K day⁻¹and 1.07/0.76/+0.01 W m⁻². Both NNs perform well in nearly all situations, and the shortwave (longwave) NN is 7510 (90) times faster than the RRTM. Both will soon be tested online in the GFSv16.

Radiative transfer is an important process for weather and climate. Accurate radiative transfer models exist, such as the RRTM, but these models are computationally slow. We develop neural networks (NNs), a type of machine learning model that is often computationally fast after training, to mimic the RRTM. We wish to accelerate the RRTM by orders of magnitude without sacrificing much accuracy. We drive both the NNs and RRTM with data from the GFSv16, an operational weather model, using locations around the globe during all seasons. We show that the NNs are highly accurate and much faster than the RRTM, which suggests that the NNs could be used to solve radiative transfer inside the GFSv16.

 

Abstract. Accurate boundary layer temperature and humidity profiles are crucial for successful forecasting of fog, and accurate retrievals of liquid water path are important for understanding the climatological significance of fog. Passive ground-based remote sensing systems such as microwave radiometers (MWRs) and infrared spectrometers like the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which measures spectrally resolved infrared radiation (3.3 to 19.2 µm), can retrieve both thermodynamic profiles and liquid water path. Both instruments are capable of long-term unattended operation and have the potential to support operational forecasting. Here we compare physical retrievals of boundary layer thermodynamic profiles and liquid water path during 12 cases of thin (LWP<40 g m−2) supercooled radiation fog from an MWR and an AERI collocated in central Greenland. We compare both sets of retrievals to in-situ measurements from radiosondes and surface-based temperature and humidity sensors. The retrievals based on AERI observations accurately capture shallow surface-based temperature inversions (0–10 m a.g.l.) with lapse rates of up to −1.2 ∘C m−1, whereas the strength of the surface-based temperature inversions retrieved from MWR observations alone are uncorrelated with in-situ measurements, highlighting the importance of constraining MWR thermodynamic profile retrievals with accurate surface meteorological data. The retrievals based on AERI observations detect fog onset (defined by a threshold in liquid water path) earlier than those based on MWR observations by 25 to 185 min. We propose that, due to the high sensitivity of the AERI instrument to near-surface temperature and small changes in liquid water path, the AERI (or an equivalent infrared spectrometer) could be a useful instrument for improving fog monitoring and nowcasting, particularly for cases of thin radiation fog under otherwise clear skies, which can have important radiative impacts at the surface. 

Abstract This paper describes the development of U-net++ models, a type of neural network that performs deep learning, to emulate the shortwave Rapid Radiative-transfer Model (RRTM). The goal is to emulate the RRTM accurately in a small fraction of the computing time, creating a U-net++ that could be used as a parameterization in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Target variables are surface downwelling flux, top-of-atmosphere upwelling flux ( ), net flux, and a profile of radiative-heating rates. We have devised several ways to make the U-net++ models knowledge-guided, recently identified as a key priority in machine learning (ML) applications to the geosciences. We conduct two experiments to find the best U-net++ configurations. In Experiment 1, we train on non-tropical sites and test on tropical sites, to assess extreme spatial generalization. In Experiment 2, we train on sites from all regions and test on different sites from all regions, with the goal of creating the best possible model for use in NWP. The selected model from Experiment 1 shows impressive skill on the tropical testing sites, except four notable deficiencies: large bias and error for heating rate in the upper stratosphere, unreliable for profiles with single-layer liquid cloud, large heating-rate bias in the mid-troposphere for profiles with multi-layer liquid cloud, and negative bias at lowzenith angles for all flux components and tropospheric heating rates. The selected model from Experiment 2 corrects all but the first deficiency, and both models run ~10 4 times faster than the RRTM. Our code is available publicly. 

Abstract Land-atmosphere feedbacks are a critical component of the hydrologic cycle. Vertical profiles of boundary layer temperature and moisture, together with information about the land surface, are used to compute land-atmosphere coupling metrics. Ground based remote sensing platforms, such as the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), can provide high temporal resolution vertical profiles of temperature and moisture. When co-located with soil moisture, surface flux, and surface meteorological observations, such as at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, it is possible to observe both the terrestrial and atmospheric legs of land-atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, we compare a commonly used coupling metric computed from radiosonde-based data to that obtained from the AERI to characterize the accuracy and uncertainty in the metric derived from the two distinct platforms. This approach demonstrates the AERI’s utility where radiosonde observations are absent in time and/or space. Radiosonde and AERI based observations of the Convective Triggering Potential and Low-Level Humidity Index (CTP-HI low ) were computed during the 1200 UTC observation time and displayed good agreement during both 2017 and 2019 warm seasons. Radiosonde and AERI derived metrics diagnosed the same atmospheric preconditioning based upon the CTP-HI low framework a majority of the time. When retrieval uncertainty was considered, even greater agreement was found between radiosonde and AERI derived classification. The AERI’s ability to represent this coupling metric well enabled novel exploration of temporal variability within the overnight period in CTP and HI low . Observations of CTP-HI low computed within a few hours of 1200 UTC were essentially equivalent, however with greater differences in time arose greater differences in CTP and HI low . 

Abstract. During the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign, held in the summer of 2019 in northern Wisconsin, USA, active and passive ground-based remote sensing instruments were deployed to understand the response of the planetary boundary layer to heterogeneous land surface forcing. These instruments include radar wind profilers, microwave radiometers, atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers, ceilometers, high spectral resolution lidars, Doppler lidars, and collaborative lower-atmospheric mobile profiling systems that combine several of these instruments. In this study, these ground-based remote sensing instruments are used to estimate the height of the daytime planetary boundary layer, and their performance is compared against independent boundary layer depth estimates obtained from radiosondes launched as part of the field campaign. The impact of clouds (in particular boundary layer clouds) on boundary layer depth estimations is also investigated. We found that while all instruments are overall able to provide reasonable boundary layer depth estimates, each of them shows strengths and weaknesses under certain conditions. For example, radar wind profilers perform well during cloud-free conditions, and microwave radiometers and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers have a very good agreement during all conditions but are limited by the smoothness of the retrieved thermodynamic profiles. The estimates from ceilometers and high spectral resolution lidars can be hindered by the presence of elevated aerosol layers or clouds, and the multi-instrument retrieval from the collaborative lower atmospheric mobile profiling systems can be constricted to a limited height range in low-aerosol conditions.