Search for: All records

Previous studies have indicated that the extratropics can influence ENSO via specific processes. However, it is still unclear to what extent ENSO is influenced by the extratropics in observation. Now we assess this issue by applying the regional data assimilation (RDA) approach in an advanced model, the GFDL CM2.1. Our study confirms a strong extratropical impact on observed ENSO. Quantitatively, the extratropical atmospheric variability poleward of 20° explains 56% of the observed variance of ENSO and greatly influences ∼67% of observed El Niño events during 1969–2008. This extratropical impact is still significant even as far as poleward of 30°. Furthermore, the impact from the southern extratropics is slightly stronger than that from the northern extratropics, partly caused by the Pacific ITCZ location north of the equator and different mixed-layer depth along the northern Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) and the southern Pacific meridional mode (SPMM). Our study further shows that all of three super El Niño events, those in 1972/73, 1982/83, and 1997/98, are influenced greatly by both hemispheric extratropics, with NPMM and SPMM interfering constructively, while most weak and moderate El Niño events are triggered by only one hemispheric extratropics, with NPMM and SPMM interfering destructively. Besides the extratropical Pacific influence on ENSO via NPMM/SPMM, the extratropics also has a potential impact on ENSO by influencing other tropical oceans and then by interbasin interactions.

 

Abstract. New particle formation (NPF) and subsequent particle growth are importantsources of condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).While many observations have shown positive contributions of NPF to CCN atlow supersaturation, negative NPF contributions were often simulated inpolluted environments. Using the observations in a coastal city of Qingdao,Beijing, and Gucheng in north China, we thoroughly evaluate the simulatednumber concentrations of CN and CCN using an NPF-explicit parameterizationembedded in the WRF-Chem model. For CN, the initial simulation shows largebiases of particle number concentrations at 10–40 and 40–100 nm. Byadjusting the process of gas–particle partitioning, including the massaccommodation coefficient (MAC) of sulfuric acid, the phase changes in primary organic aerosol emissions, and the condensational amount of nitric acid, the improvement of the particle growth process yields substantially reduced overestimation of CN. Regarding CCN, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the oxidation of semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) is called SI-SOA, the yield of which is an important contributor. At default settings, the SI-SOA yield is too high without considering the differences in precursor oxidation rates. Lowering the SI-SOA yield under linear H2SO4 nucleation scheme results in much-improved CCN simulations compared to observations. On the basis of the bias-corrected model, we find substantially positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation (∼ 0.2 %) over broad areas of China, primarily due to competing effects of increasing particle hygroscopicity, a result of reductions in SI-SOA amount, surpassing that of particle size decreases. The bias-corrected model is robustly applicable to other schemes, such as the quadratic H2SO4 nucleation scheme, in terms of CN and CCN, though the dependence of CCN on SI-SOA yield is diminished likely due to changes in particle composition. This study highlights potentially much larger NPF contributions to CCN on a regional and even global basis.

 

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming. 

Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

 

Abstract. In the summer of 2017, heavy ozone pollution swamped most of the North ChinaPlain (NCP), with the maximum regional average of daily maximum 8 h ozoneconcentration (MDA8) reaching almost 120 ppbv. In light of the continuingreduction of anthropogenic emissions in China, the underlying mechanisms forthe occurrences of these regional extreme ozone episodes are elucidated fromtwo perspectives: meteorology and biogenic emissions. The significantpositive correlation between MDA8 ozone and temperature, which is amplifiedduring heat waves concomitant with stagnant air and no precipitation,supports the crucial role of meteorology in driving high ozoneconcentrations. We also find that biogenic emissions are enhanced due tofactors previously not considered. During the heavy ozone pollution episodesin June 2017, biogenic emissions driven by high vapor pressure deficit(VPD), land cover change and urban landscape yield an extra mean MDA8 ozoneof 3.08, 2.79 and 4.74 ppbv, respectively, over the NCP, which togethercontribute as much to MDA8 ozone as biogenic emissions simulated using theland cover of 2003 and ignoring VPD and urban landscape. In Beijing, thebiogenic emission increase due to urban landscape has a comparable effect onMDA8 ozone to the combined effect of high VPD and land cover change between2003 and 2016. In light of the large effect of urban landscape on biogenicemission and the subsequent ozone formation, the types of trees may becautiously selected to take into account of the biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission during the afforestation of cities. This study highlights the vital contributions ofheat waves, land cover change and urbanization to the occurrence of extremeozone episodes, with significant implications for ozone pollution control ina future when heat wave frequency and intensity are projected to increaseunder global warming.