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Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized.

Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis.

Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales.

We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.

Near‐term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state‐space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin‐producing cyanobacterium,Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near‐term (1‐ to 4‐week) forecasts ofG. echinulatadensities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4‐week forecastmore »horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1‐week‐ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long‐term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

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Robust ecological forecasting of tree growth under future climate conditions is critical to anticipate future forest carbon storage and flux. Here, we apply three ingredients of ecological forecasting that are key to improving forecast skill: data fusion, confronting model predictions with new data, and partitioning forecast uncertainty. Specifically, we present the first fusion of tree‐ring and forest inventory data within a Bayesian state‐space model at a multi‐site, regional scale, focusing onPinus ponderosavar.brachypterain the southwestern US. Leveraging the complementarity of these two data sources, we parsed the ecological complexity of tree growth into the effects of climate, tree size, stand density, site quality, and their interactions, and quantified uncertainties associated with these effects. New measurements of trees, an ongoing process in forest inventories, were used to confront forecasts of tree diameter with observations, and evaluate alternative tree growth models. We forecasted tree diameter and increment in response to an ensemble of climate change projections, and separated forecast uncertainty into four different causes: initial conditions, parameters, climate drivers, and process error. We found a strong negative effect of fall–spring maximum temperature, and a positive effect of water‐year precipitation on tree growth. Furthermore, tree vulnerability to climate stress increases with greater competition,more »with tree size, and at poor sites. Under future climate scenarios, we forecast increment declines of 22%–117%, while the combined effect of climate and size‐related trends results in a 56%–91% decline. Partitioning of forecast uncertainty showed that diameter forecast uncertainty is primarily caused by parameter and initial conditions uncertainty, but increment forecast uncertainty is mostly caused by process error and climate driver uncertainty. This fusion of tree‐ring and forest inventory data lays the foundation for robust ecological forecasting of aboveground biomass and carbon accounting at tree, plot, and regional scales, including iterative improvement of model skill.

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Soil microbial communities play critical roles in various ecosystem processes, but studies at a large spatial and temporal scale have been challenging due to the difficulty in finding the relevant samples in available data sets as well as the lack of standardization in sample collection and processing. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) has been collecting soil microbial community data multiple times per year for 47 terrestrial sites in 20 eco‐climatic domains, producing one of the most extensive standardized sampling efforts for soil microbial biodiversity to date. Here, we introduce the neonMicrobe R package—a suite of downloading, preprocessing, data set assembly, and sensitivity analysis tools for NEON’s newly published 16S and ITS amplicon sequencing data products which characterize soil bacterial and fungal communities, respectively. neonMicrobe is designed to make these data more accessible to ecologists without assuming prior experience with bioinformatic pipelines. We describe quality control steps used to remove quality‐flagged samples, report on sensitivity analyses used to determine appropriate quality filtering parameters for the DADA2 workflow, and demonstrate the immediate usability of the output data by conducting standard analyses of soil microbial diversity. The sequence abundance tables produced byneonMicrobecan be linked to NEON’s other data products (e.g., soilmore »physical and chemical properties, plant community composition) and soil subsamples archived in the NEON Biorepository. We provide recommendations for incorporatingneonMicrobeinto reproducible scientific workflows, discuss technical considerations for large‐scale amplicon sequence analysis, and outline future directions for NEON‐enabled microbial ecology. In particular, we believe that NEON marker gene sequence data will allow researchers to answer outstanding questions about the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities while explicitly accounting for scale dependence. We expect that the data produced by NEON and theneonMicrobeR package will act as a valuable ecological baseline to inform and contextualize future experimental and modeling endeavors.

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Most tree roots on Earth form a symbiosis with either ecto‐ or arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Nitrogen fertilization is hypothesized to favor arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species at the expense of ectomycorrhizal species due to differences in fungal nitrogen acquisition strategies, and this may alter soil carbon balance, as differences in forest mycorrhizal associations are linked to differences in soil carbon pools. Combining nitrogen deposition data with continental‐scaleUSforest data, we show that nitrogen pollution is spatially associated with a decline in ectomycorrhizal vs. arbuscular mycorrhizal trees. Furthermore, nitrogen deposition has contrasting effects on arbuscular vs. ectomycorrhizal demographic processes, favoring arbuscular mycorrhizal trees at the expense of ectomycorrhizal trees, and is spatially correlated with reduced soil carbon stocks. This implies future changes in nitrogen deposition may alter the capacity of forests to sequester carbon and offset climate change via interactions with the forest microbiome.

The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale‐dependent, space‐time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data‐driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two‐predator‐two‐prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics.

The opportunity to participate in and contribute to emerging fields is increasingly prevalent in science. However, simply thinking about stepping outside of your academic silo can leave many students reeling from the uncertainty. Here, we describe 10 simple rules to successfully train yourself in an emerging field, based on our experience as students in the emerging field of ecological forecasting. Our advice begins with setting and revisiting specific goals to achieve your academic and career objectives and includes several useful rules for engaging with and contributing to an emerging field.