Search for: All records

Abstract A 25‐year (1996–2020) hindcast from a coupled physical‐biogeochemical model is evaluated with nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton field data and is analyzed to identify mechanisms controlling seasonal and interannual variability of the northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) planktonic food web. Characterized by a mosaic of processes, the NGA is a biologically complex and productive marine ecosystem. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis combining abiotic and biotic variables averaged over the continental shelf reveals that light intensity is a main driver for nanophytoplankton variability during spring, and that nitrate availability is a main driver for diatoms during spring and for both phytoplankton during summer. Zooplankton variability is a combination of carry‐over effects from the previous year and bottom‐up controls from the current year, with copepods and euphausiids responding to diatoms and microzooplankton responding to nanophytoplankton. The results also demonstrate the effect of nitrate availability and phytoplankton community structure on changes in biomass and energy transfers across the planktonic food web over the entire growing season. In particular, the biomass of large copepods and euphausiids increases more significantly during years of higher relative diatom abundance, as opposed to years with higher nitrate availability. Large microzooplankton was identified as the planktonic group most sensitive to perturbations, presumably due to its central position in the food web. By quantifying the combined variability of several key planktonic functional groups over a 25‐year period, this work lays the foundation for an improved understanding of the long‐term impacts of climate change on the NGA shelf. 

IntroductionSeabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. MethodsUsing a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. ResultsThe best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). DiscussionOur results indicated that pelagic shearwaters (Ardennaspp.) and tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy. 

Abstract Recent marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska have had devastating impacts on species from various trophic levels. Due to climate change, total heat exposure in the upper ocean has become longer, more intense, more frequent, and more likely to happen at the same time as other environmental extremes. The combination of multiple environmental extremes can exacerbate the response of sensitive marine organisms. Our hindcast simulation provides the first indication that more than 20% of the bottom water of the Gulf of Alaska continental shelf was exposed to quadruple heat, positive hydrogen ion concentration [H⁺], negative aragonite saturation state (Ω_arag), and negative oxygen concentration [O₂] compound extreme events during the 2018–2020 marine heat wave. Natural intrusion of deep and acidified water combined with the marine heat wave triggered the first occurrence of these events in 2019. During the 2013–2016 marine heat wave, surface waters were already exposed to widespread marine heat and positive [H⁺] compound extreme events due to the temperature effect on the [H⁺]. We introduce a new Gulf of Alaska Downwelling Index (GOADI) with short‐term predictive skill, which can serve as indicator of past and near‐future positive [H⁺], negative Ω_arag, and negative [O₂] compound extreme events near the shelf seafloor. Our results suggest that the marine heat waves may have not been the sole environmental stressor that led to the observed ecosystem impacts and warrant a closer look at existing in situ inorganic carbon and other environmental data in combination with biological observations and model output. 

Abstract Abundance, biomass, size and distribution of macro-jellyfish were measured in the Northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA). Nearly 1000 kg dispersed among ~13 800 jellyfish were collected using a 5-m2 Methot net. We present length-weight regressions for seven most-common taxa. Catches were dominated by the hydrozoan Aequorea victoria and the scyphozoan Chrysaora melanaster. During 2018, epipelagic macro-jellyfish biomass averaged 1.46 ± 0.36 g WW m−3 for July and 1.14 ± 0.23 g WW m−3 for September, while during 2019 they averaged 0.86 ± 0.19 g WW m−3 for July and 0.72 ± 0.21 g WW m−3 by September. Despite similar biomass among seasons within a year, July abundances were fivefold greater than abundances in September, with July catches dominated by smaller-sized jellyfish over the inner shelf, while during September larger jellyfish were more prominent and most predominant at offshore stations. Comparison to 20 years of data from standard towed nets allowed determination of the relative magnitude of the dominant carnivorous zooplankton components: scyphozoans, hydrozoans and chaetognaths in the NGA. The biomass of these smaller epipelagic predators (5.4 mg WW m−3 for hydrozoans and 10.5 mg WW m−3 for chaetognaths) is a low percentage of the macro-jellyfish, despite their much higher numerical abundance. 

Abstract This study presents eight new high-qualityde novotranscriptomes from six co-occurring species of calanoid copepods, the first published forNeocalanus plumchrus,N. cristatus, Eucalanus bungiiandMetridia pacificaand additional ones forN. flemingeriandCalanus marshallae. They are ecologically-important members of sub-arctic North Pacific marine zooplankton communities. ‘Omics data for this diverse and numerous taxonomic group are sparse and difficult to obtain. Total RNA from single individuals was used to construct gene libraries that were sequenced on an Illumina Next-Seq platform. Quality filtered reads were assembled with Trinity software and validated using multiple criteria. The study’s primary purpose is to provide a resource for gene expression studies. The integrated database can be used for quantitative inter- and intra-species comparisons of gene expression patterns across biological processes. An example of an additional use is provided for discovering novel and evolutionarily-significant proteins within the Calanoida. A workflow was designed to find and characterize unannotated transcripts with homologies acrossde novoassemblies that have also been shown to be eco-responsive. 

abstract The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured. 

Abstract Uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the surface ocean is leading to global ocean acidification, but regional variations in ocean circulation and mixing can dampen or accelerate apparent acidification rates. Here we use a regional ocean model simulation for the years 1980 to 2013 and observational data to investigate how ocean fluctuations impact acidification rates in surface waters of the Gulf of Alaska. We find that large-scale atmospheric forcing influenced local winds and upwelling strength, which in turn affected ocean acidification rate. Specifically, variability in local wind stress curl depressed sea surface height in the subpolar gyre over decade-long intervals, which increased upwelling of nitrate- and dissolved inorganic carbon-rich waters and enhanced apparent ocean acidification rates. We define this sea surface height variability as the Northern Gulf of Alaska Oscillation and suggest that it can cause extreme acidification events that are detrimental to ecosystem health and fisheries. 

Abstract How individual organisms adapt to nonoptimal conditions through physiological acclimatization is central to predicting the consequences of unusual abiotic and biotic conditions such as those produced by marine heat waves. The Northeast Pacific, including the Gulf of Alaska, experienced an extreme warming event (2014–2016, “The Blob”) that affected all trophic levels and led to large‐scale changes in the community. The marine copepodNeocalanus flemingeriis a key member of the subarctic Pacific pelagic ecosystem. During the spring phytoplankton bloom this copepod builds substantial lipid stores as it prepares for its nonfeeding adult phase. A 3‐year comparison of gene expression profiles of copepods collected in Prince William Sound in the Gulf of Alaska between 2015 and 2017 included two high‐temperature years (2015 and 2016) and one year with very low phytoplankton abundances (2016). The largest differences in gene expression were between high and low chlorophyll years, and not between warm and cool years. The observed gene expression patterns were indicative of physiological acclimatization. The predominant signal in 2016 was the down‐regulation of genes involved in glycolysis and its incoming pathways, consistent with the modulation of metabolic rates in response to prolonged low food conditions. Despite the down‐regulation of genes involved in metabolism, there was no evidence of suppression of protein synthesis based on gene expression or behavioural activity. Genes involved in muscle function were up‐regulated, and the copepods were actively swimming and responsive to stimuli at collection. However, genes involved in fatty acid metabolism were down‐regulated in 2016, suggesting reduced lipid accumulation. 

Abstract Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state. 

Abstract We demonstrate a linking of moderately high resolution (1 km) terrestrial hydrological models to a 3‐D ocean circulation model having similar resolution in the northern Gulf of Alaska, where a distributed line source of freshwater runoff exerts strong influence over the shelf's hydrographic structure and flow dynamics. The model interfacing is accomplished via mass flux boundary conditions through the ocean model coastal wall at all land‐ocean adjoining grid cells. Despite the high runoff volume and lack of a coastal mixing estuary, the implementation maintains numerical stability by prescribing depth invariant and surface‐intensified inflows at fast and slow discharge grid cells, respectively. Based on comparisons against in situ hydrographic data, the coastal sidewall mass flux boundary condition results in more realistic hindcast surface salinity and salinity gradient fields than models that distribute coastal runoff in the form of spatially distributed precipitation. Correlations with observed thermal and haline monthly anomalies reveal statistically significant hindcast temporal variability during the freshet season when the signal‐to‐noise ratio is large. Comparisons of ocean models forced by high‐ and low‐resolution hydrological models reveal differences in salinity, surface elevation, and velocity fields, highlighting the value and importance of accurate coastal runoff fields. The model results improve our understanding of the regional influence of runoff on sea level elevations and the distribution and fate of fresh water. Our approach has potential applications to biogeochemical modeling in regions where distributed line source freshwater coastal discharges deliver heat, momentum, and chemical constituents that may influence the marine carbon pump.