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Global warming may modify submesoscale activity in the ocean through changes in the mixed layer depth (MLD) and lateral buoyancy gradients. As a case study we consider a region in the NE Atlantic under present and future climate conditions, using a time‐slice method and global and nested regional ocean models. The high resolution regional model reproduces the strong seasonal cycle in submesoscale activity observed under present‐day conditions. Focusing on the well‐resolved winter months, in the future, with a reduction in the MLD, there is a substantial reduction in submesoscale activity, an associated decrease in kinetic energy (KE) at the mesoscale, and the vertical buoyancy flux induced by submesoscale activity is reduced by a factor of 2. When submesoscale activity is suppressed, by increasing the parameterized lateral mixing in the model, the climate change induces a larger reduction in winter MLDs while there is less of a change in KE at the mesoscale. A scaling for the vertical buoyancy flux proposed by (Fox‐Kemper et al., 2008; doi:10.1175/2007JPO3792.1) based on the properties of mixed layer instability (MLI), is found to capture much of the seasonal and future changes to the flux in terms of regional averages as well as the spatial structure, although it over predicts the reduction in the flux in the winter months. The vertical buoyancy flux when the mixed layer is relatively shallow is significantly greater than that given by the scaling based on MLI, suggesting during these times other processes (besides MLI) may dominate submesoscale buoyancy fluxes.

 

Abstract. While there is agreement that global warming over the 21st century is likely to influence the biological pump, Earth system models (ESMs) display significant divergence in their projections of future new production. This paper quantifies and interprets the sensitivity of projected changes in new production in an idealized global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model includes two tracers that explicitly represent nutrient transport, light- and nutrient-limited nutrient uptake by the ecosystem (new production), and export via sinking organic particles. Globally, new production declines with warming due to reduced surface nutrient availability, as expected. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and underlying dynamics of the nutrient uptake are sensitive to the light and nutrient dependencies of uptake, which we summarize in terms of a single biological timescale that is a linear combination of the partial derivatives of production with respect to light and nutrients. Although the relationships are nonlinear, this biological timescale is correlated with several measures of biogeochemical function: shorter timescales are associated with greater global annual new production and higher nutrient utilization. Shorter timescales are also associated with greater declines in global new production in a warmer climate and greater sensitivity to changes in nutrients than light. Future work is needed to characterize more complex ocean biogeochemical models in terms of similar timescale generalities to examine their climate change implications.