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Abstract The prolonged 2012–2016 California drought has raised many issues including concerns over reduced vegetation health. Drought impacts are complicated by geographical differences in hydroclimatic variability due to a climatic dipole influenced by the Pacific. Analysis of MODIS‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index from 2000 to 2018 reveals differences in drought and vegetation responses in Northern versus Southern California (NorCal vs SoCal, see definition in section). The greatest declines in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were focused in the SoCal, while NorCal appears not severely affected thus far. It appears that both the strength of drought and the sensitivity of the vegetation to drought are larger in SoCal. The exacerbated aridity in SoCal is a trend extending throughout the past and present century. The spatial differences in hydroclimatology and vegetation responses are important considerations for statewide climate change adaptation—with SoCal potentially facing greater challenges. 

Abstract Paleoperspectives of climate provide important information for understanding future climate, particularly in arid regions such as California, where water availability is uncertain from year to year. Here, we present a record from Barley Lake, California, focusing on the interval spanning the Younger Dryas (YD) to the early Holocene (EH), a period of acute and rapid global climate change. Twelve radiocarbon dates constrain the timing between 12.9 and 8.1 ka. We combine a variety of sediment analyses to infer changes in lake productivity, relative lake level, and runoff dynamics. In general, the lake is characterized by two states separated by a <200-year transition: (1) a variably deep, lower-productivity YD lake; and (2) a two-part variably shallow, higher-productivity EH lake. Inferred EH winter-precipitation runoff reveals dynamic multidecadal-to-centennial-scale variability, in agreement with the EH lake-level data. The Barley Lake archive captures both hemispheric and regional signals of climate change across the transition, suggesting a role for both ocean-atmosphere and insolation forcing. Our paleoperspective emphasizes California's sensitivity to climate change and how that change can generate abrupt shifts in limnological regimes. 

A combination of drought and high temperatures (“global-change-type drought”) is projected to become increasingly common in Mediterranean climate regions. Recently, Southern California has experienced record-breaking high temperatures coupled with significant precipitation deficits, which provides opportunities to investigate the impacts of high temperatures on the drought sensitivity of Mediterranean climate vegetation. Responses of different vegetation types to drought are quantified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period 2000–2017. The contrasting responses of the vegetation types to drought are captured by the correlation and regression coefficients between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). A novel bootstrapping regression approach is used to decompose the relationships between the vegetation sensitivity (NDVI–PDSI regression slopes) and the principle climate factors (temperature and precipitation) associated with the drought. Significantly increased sensitivity to drought in warmer locations indicates the important role of temperature in exacerbating vulnerability; however, spatial precipitation variations do not demonstrate significant effects in modulating drought sensitivity. Based on annual NDVI response, chaparral is the most vulnerable community to warming, which will probably be severely affected by hotter droughts in the future. Drought sensitivity of coastal sage scrub (CSS) is also shown to be very responsive to warming in fall and winter. Grassland and developed land will likely be less affected by this warming. The sensitivity of the overall vegetation to temperature increases is particularly concerning, as it is the variable that has had the strongest secular trend in recent decades, which is expected to continue or strengthen in the future. Increased temperatures will probably alter vegetation distribution, as well as possibly increase annual grassland cover, and decrease the extent and ecological services provided by perennial woody Mediterranean climate ecosystems as well.