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In the statistical analysis of genome-wide association data, it is challenging to precisely localize the variants that affect complex traits, due to linkage disequilibrium, and to maximize power while limiting spurious findings. Here we report onKnockoffZoom: a flexible method that localizes causal variants at multiple resolutions by testing the conditional associations of genetic segments of decreasing width, while provably controlling the false discovery rate. Our method utilizes artificial genotypes as negative controls and is equally valid for quantitative and binary phenotypes, without requiring any assumptions about their genetic architectures. Instead, we rely on well-established genetic models of linkage disequilibrium. We demonstrate that our method can detect more associations than mixed effects models and achieve fine-mapping precision, at comparable computational cost. Lastly, we applyKnockoffZoomto data from 350k subjects in the UK Biobank and report many new findings.

 

We introduce a method to draw causal inferences—inferences immune to all possible confounding—from genetic data that include parents and offspring. Causal conclusions are possible with these data because the natural randomness in meiosis can be viewed as a high-dimensional randomized experiment. We make this observation actionable by developing a conditional independence test that identifies regions of the genome containing distinct causal variants. The proposed digital twin test compares an observed offspring to carefully constructed synthetic offspring from the same parents to determine statistical significance, and it can leverage any black-box multivariate model and additional nontrio genetic data to increase power. Crucially, our inferences are based only on a well-established mathematical model of recombination and make no assumptions about the relationship between the genotypes and phenotypes. We compare our method to the widely used transmission disequilibrium test and demonstrate enhanced power and localization.

 

Summary The goal of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies is to identify the genetic variants that influence the expression levels of the genes in an organism. High throughput technology has made such studies possible: in a given tissue sample, it enables us to quantify the expression levels of approximately 20 000 genes and to record the alleles present at millions of genetic polymorphisms. While obtaining this data is relatively cheap once a specimen is at hand, obtaining human tissue remains a costly endeavor: eQTL studies continue to be based on relatively small sample sizes, with this limitation particularly serious for tissues as brain, liver, etc.—often the organs of most immediate medical relevance. Given the high-dimensional nature of these datasets and the large number of hypotheses tested, the scientific community has adopted early on multiplicity adjustment procedures. These testing procedures primarily control the false discoveries rate for the identification of genetic variants with influence on the expression levels. In contrast, a problem that has not received much attention to date is that of providing estimates of the effect sizes associated with these variants, in a way that accounts for the considerable amount of selection. Yet, given the difficulty of procuring additional samples, this challenge is of practical importance. We illustrate in this work how the recently developed conditional inference approach can be deployed to obtain confidence intervals for the eQTL effect sizes with reliable coverage. The procedure we propose is based on a randomized hierarchical strategy with a 2-fold contribution: (1) it reflects the selection steps typically adopted in state of the art investigations and (2) it introduces the use of randomness instead of data-splitting to maximize the use of available data. Analysis of the GTEx Liver dataset (v6) suggests that naively obtained confidence intervals would likely not cover the true values of effect sizes and that the number of local genetic polymorphisms influencing the expression level of genes might be underestimated. 

Consider a case–control study in which we have a random sample, constructed in such a way that the proportion of cases in our sample is different from that in the general population—for instance, the sample is constructed to achieve a fixed ratio of cases to controls. Imagine that we wish to determine which of the potentially many covariates under study truly influence the response by applying the new model‐X knockoffs approach. This paper demonstrates that it suffices to design knockoff variables using data that may have a different ratio of cases to controls. For example, the knockoff variables can be constructed using the distribution of the original variables under any of the following scenarios: (a) a population of controls only; (b) a population of cases only; and (c) a population of cases and controls mixed in an arbitrary proportion (irrespective of the fraction of cases in the sample at hand). The consequence is that knockoff variables may be constructed using unlabelled data, which are often available more easily than labelled data, while maintaining Type‐I error guarantees.