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Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of informal visual “insights”. We formally evaluate the quality of causal inferences from visualizations by adopting causal support—a Bayesian cognition model that learns the probability of alternative causal explanations given some data—as a normative benchmark for causal inferences. We contribute two experiments assessing how well crowdworkers can detect (1) a treatment effect and (2) a confounding relationship. We find that chart users’ causal inferences tend to be insensitive to sample size such that they deviate from our normative benchmark. While interactively cross-filtering data in visualizations can improve sensitivity, on average users do not perform reliably better with common visualizations than they do with textual contingency tables. These experiments demonstrate the utility of causal support as an evaluation framework for inferences in VA and point to opportunities to make analysts’ mental models more explicit in VA software.
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Causal inference in genetic trio studies
We introduce a method to draw causal inferences—inferences immune to all possible confounding—from genetic data that include parents and offspring. Causal conclusions are possible with these data because the natural randomness in meiosis can be viewed as a high-dimensional randomized experiment. We make this observation actionable by developing a conditional independence test that identifies regions of the genome containing distinct causal variants. The proposed digital twin test compares an observed offspring to carefully constructed synthetic offspring from the same parents to determine statistical significance, and it can leverage any black-box multivariate model and additional nontrio genetic data to increase power. Crucially, our inferences are based only on a well-established mathematical model of recombination and make no assumptions about the relationship between the genotypes and phenotypes. We compare our method to the widely used transmission disequilibrium test and demonstrate enhanced power and localization.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1712800
- PAR ID:
- 10193080
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 117
- Issue:
- 39
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 24117-24126
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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