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Abstract Axial Seamount in the northeast Pacific erupted in 2015, 2011, and 1998. Although monitored by the Regional Cabled Array of the Ocean Observatory Initiative, few magnetic surveys have been conducted over the region. This study uses high‐resolution magnetic data over the seamount collected by autonomous underwater vehicleSentryduring three years (2015, 2017, and 2020). The goal is to investigate whether there are temporal changes in the near‐surface magnetic field observable over the time scale of one volcanic cycle. We compare magnetic maps from repeated tracklines from each year. We find maps of the yearly difference in magnetization show coherent patterns that are not random. The central region of the caldera has become more magnetic during recent years, suggesting cooling of the surficial lava flows since 2015.Sentrydata are more sensitive to shallow crustal structure compared to sea surface data which show longer wavelength anomalies extending deeper into the crust. 

Abstract Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply. Axial erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and is monitored by a cabled network of instruments including bottom pressure recorders and seismometers. Since its last eruption, Axial has re‐inflated to 85%–90% of its pre‐eruption level. During that time, we have identified eight discrete, short‐term deflation events of 1–4 cm over 1–3 weeks that occurred quasi‐periodically, about every 4–6 months between August 2016 and May 2019. During each short‐term deflation event, the rate of earthquakes dropped abruptly to low levels, and then did not return to higher levels until reinflation had resumed and returned near its previous high. The long‐term geodetic monitoring record suggests that the rate of magma supply has varied by an order of magnitude over decadal time scales. There was a surge in magma supply between 2011 and 2015, causing those two eruptions to be closely spaced in time and the supply rate has been waning since then. This waning supply has implications for eruption forecasting and the next eruption at Axial still appears to be 4–9 years away. We also show that the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift has increased exponentially with total uplift since the 2015 eruption, a pattern consistent with a mechanical model of cumulative rock damage leading to bulk failure during magma accumulation between eruptions. 

Abstract Axial Seamount is an active submarine volcano located at the intersection of the Cobb hot spot and the Juan de Fuca Ridge (45°57′N, 130°01′W). Bottom pressure recorders captured co‐eruption subsidence of 2.4–3.2 m in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and campaign‐style pressure surveys every 1–2 years have provided a long‐term time series of inter‐eruption re‐inflation. The 2015 eruption occurred shortly after the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) Cabled Array came online providing real‐time seismic and deformation observations for the first time. Nooner and Chadwick (2016,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4666) used the available vertical deformation data to model the 2015 eruption deformation source as a steeply dipping prolate‐spheroid, approximating a high‐melt zone or conduit beneath the eastern caldera wall. More recently, Levy et al. (2018,https://doi.org/10.1130/G39978.1) used OOI seismic data to estimate dip‐slip motion along a pair of outward‐dipping caldera ring faults. This fault motion complicates the deformation field by contributing up to several centimeters of vertical seafloor motion. In this study, fault‐induced surface deformation was calculated from the slip estimates of Levy et al. (2018,https://doi.org/10.1130/G39978.1) then removed from vertical deformation data prior to model inversions. Removing fault motion resulted in an improved model fit with a new best‐fitting deformation source located 2.11 km S64°W of the source of Nooner and Chadwick (2016,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4666) with similar geometry. This result shows that ring fault motion can have a significant impact on surface deformation, and future modeling efforts need to consider the contribution of fault motion when estimating the location and geometry of subsurface magma movement at Axial Seamount.