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Abstract The Arctic has warmed three times the rate of the global average, resulting in extensive thaw of perennially frozen ground known as permafrost. While it is well understood that permafrost thaw will continue and likely accelerate, thaw rates are nonuniform due, in part, to the expansion of Arctic trees and tall shrubs that may increase ground temperatures. However, in permafrost regions with short‐stature vegetation (height < 40 cm), our understanding of how ground temperature regimes vary by vegetation type is limited as these sites are generally found in remote high‐latitude regions that lack in situ ground temperature measurements. This study aims to overcome this limitation by leveraging in situ shallow ground temperatures, remote sensing observations, and topographic parameters across 22 sites with varying types of short‐stature vegetation on Baffin Island, Canada, a remote region underlain by rapidly warming continuous permafrost. Results suggest that the type of short‐stature vegetation does not necessarily correspond to a distinct shallow ground temperature regime. Instead, in permafrost regions with short‐stature vegetation, factors that control snow duration, such as microtopography, may have a larger effect on evolving ground temperature regimes and thus permafrost vulnerability. These findings suggest that anticipating permafrost thaw in regions of short‐stature vegetation may be more nuanced than previously suggested. 

Abstract Sedimentary plant waxδ²H values are common proxies for hydrology, a poorly constrained variable in the Arctic. However, it can be difficult to distinguish plant waxes derived from aquatic versus terrestrial plants, causing uncertainty in climate interpretations. We test the hypothesis that Arctic lake sediment mid‐ and long‐chain plant waxes derive from aquatic and terrestrial plants, respectively. We comparen‐alkanoic acid andn‐alkane chain‐length distributions andn‐alkanoic acidδ²H andδ¹³C values of the 29 most abundant modern plant taxa to those for soils, water filtrates, and lake sediments in the Qaupat Lake (QPT) catchment, Nunavut, Canada. Chain length distributions are variable among terrestrial plants, but similar and dominated by mid‐chain waxes among submerged/floating aquatic plants. Sedimentary wax distributions are similar to those in submerged/floating aquatic plants and toSalixspp., which are among the most abundant terrestrial plants in the QPT catchment. Mid‐chainn‐alkanoic acidδ²H values are similar in sediments and submerged/floating aquatic plants, but 50‰ lower thanSalixspp. In contrast, sedimentary long‐chainn‐alkanoic acidδ²H values fall between those for submerged/floating aquatic plants andSalixspp. We therefore infer that mid‐chain waxes in QPT are primarily from aquatic plants, whereas long‐chain waxes are from a mix of terrestrial and aquatic plants. In Arctic lakes like QPT, terrestrial wax transport via leaf litter and surface flow is limited by low‐lying topography and sparse vegetation. If these lakes also have abundant aquatic plants growing near the sediment‐water interface, the aquatic plants can contribute large portions of sedimentary waxes. 

Abstract Arctic shrubification is an observable consequence of climate change, already resulting in ecological shifts and global‐scale climate feedbacks including changes in land surface albedo and enhanced evapotranspiration. However, the rate at which shrubs can colonize previously glaciated terrain in a warming world is largely unknown. Reconstructions of past vegetation dynamics in conjunction with climate records can provide critical insights into shrubification rates and controls on plant migration, but paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on pollen may be biased by the influx of exotic pollen to tundra settings. Here, we reconstruct past plant communities using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), which has a more local source area than pollen. We additionally reconstruct past temperature variability using bacterial cell membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) and an aquatic productivity indicator (biogenic silica) to evaluate the relative timing of postglacial ecological and climate changes at a lake on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. ThesedaDNA record tightly constrains the colonization of dwarf birch (Betula, a thermophilous shrub) to 5.9 ± 0.1 ka, ~3 ka after local deglaciation as determined by cosmogenic¹⁰Be moraine dating and >2 ka later thanBetulapollen is recorded in nearby lake sediment. We then assess the paleovegetation history within the context of summer temperature and find that paleotemperatures were highest prior to 6.3 ka, followed by cooling in the centuries precedingBetulaestablishment. Together, these molecular proxies reveal thatBetulacolonization lagged peak summer temperatures, suggesting that inefficient dispersal, rather than climate, may have limited Arctic shrub migration in this region. In addition, these data suggest that pollen‐based climate reconstructions from high latitudes, which rely heavily on the presence and abundance of pollen from thermophilous taxa likeBetula, can be compromised by both exotic pollen fluxes and vegetation migration lags. 

Vegetation has recolonized the Arctic numerous times throughout the Holocene. The most recent retreat of glaciers on Baffin Island, Nunavut, has been since the Little Ice Age, due to anthropogenic warming. Retreating cold-based ice often uncovers ancient vegetation. Recently exposed plants can tell us about past plant communities and colonization rates, important information for parameterizing vegetation feedback in climate models. Here, we provide complete descriptions of vegetation communities recently exposed by two retreating ice caps on Baffin Island and compare them with modern vegetation in the surrounding areas. We found that the ancient vegetation was similar to current vegetation, meaning that the current vegetation had not significantly changed during the past several hundred years. Colonization of bare ground was evident and differed depending on the substrate (rock versus finer substrates), with saxicolous lichens colonizing rocks and acrocarpous mosses and liverworts colonizing areas with finer substrates. The mature communities differed at the two sites, mostly because of a warmer climate at the southern site. Vegetation colonization, especially of light-colored rocks, reduces albedo, but the process can take hundreds of years. Changes in plant community composition are likely to continue for thousands of years due to climate change and the arrival of new species. 

Abstract. Most extant ice caps mantling low-relief Arctic Canada landscapes remained cold based throughout the late Holocene, preserving in situ bryophytes killed as ice expanded across vegetated landscapes. After reaching peak late Holocene dimensions ∼1900 CE, ice caps receded as Arctic summers warmed, exposing entombed vegetation. The calibrated radiocarbon ages of entombed moss collected near ice cap margins (kill dates) define when ice advanced across the site, killing the moss, and remained over the site until the year of their collection. In an earlier study, we reported 94 last millennium radiocarbon dates on in situ dead moss collected at ice cap margins across Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. Tight clustering of those ages indicated an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age at ∼1240 CE and further expansion at ∼1480 CE coincident with episodes of major explosive volcanism. Here we test the confidence in kill dates as reliable predictors of expanding ice caps by resampling two previously densely sampled ice complexes ∼15 years later after ∼250 m of ice recession. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the more recent series of ages match PDFs of the earlier series but with a larger fraction of early Common Era ages. Post 2005 CE ice recession has exposed relict ice caps that grew during earlier Common Era advances and were preserved beneath later ice cap growth. We compare the 106 kill dates from the two ice complexes with 80 kill dates from 62 other ice caps within 250 km of the two densely sampled ice complexes. The PDFs of kill dates from the 62 other ice caps cluster in the same time windows as those from the two ice complexes alone, with the PDF of all 186 kill dates documenting episodes of widespread ice expansion restricted almost exclusively to 250–450 CE, 850–1000 CE, and a dense early Little Ice Age cluster with peaks at ∼1240 and ∼1480 CE. Ice continued to expand after 1480 CE, reaching maximum dimensions at ∼1880 CE that are still visible as zones of sparse vegetation cover in remotely sensed imagery. Intervals of widespread ice cap expansion coincide with persistent decreases in mean summer surface air temperature for the region in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled Common Era simulation, suggesting the primary forcings of the observed snowline lowering were both modest declines in summer insolation and cooling resulting from explosive volcanism, most likely intensified by positive feedbacks from increased snow cover and sea ice and reduced northward heat transport by the oceans. The clusters of ice cap expansion defined by moss kill dates are mirrored in an annually resolved Common Era record of ice cap dimensions in Iceland, suggesting this is a circum-North-Atlantic–Arctic climate signal for the Common Era. During the coldest century of the Common Era, 1780–1880 CE, ice caps mantled >11 000 km2 of north-central Baffin Island, whereas <100 km2 is glaciated at present. The peak Little Ice Age state approached conditions expected during the inception phase of an ice age and was only reversed after 1880 CE by anthropogenic alterations of the planetary energy balance. 

Paleo water isotope records can elucidate how the Arctic water cycle responded to past climate changes. We analyze the hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) of plant‐derived n‐alkanoic acids (waxes) from Lake Qaupat, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, to assess moisture sources and seasonality during the past 5.8 ka. We compare this record to a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA)‐inferred vascular plant record from the same lake, aiming to overcome the uncertainty of plant community impacts on leaf waxes. As the sedaDNA record reveals a stable plant community after the colonization of Betula sp. at 6.1 ka, we interpret plant wax δ2H values to reflect climate, specifically mean annual precipitation δ2H. However, the distributions of n‐alkanoic acid homologs suggest that aquatic mosses, which are not represented in the sedaDNA record, may become more abundant towards the present. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that changes in the plant community cause changes in the plant wax δ2H record, particularly long‐chain waxes, which become less abundant through this record. We find that Lake Qaupat mid‐chain plant wax δ2H is enriched coincident with high Labrador Sea summer surface temperature, which suggests that local moisture sources in summer and early autumn have the greatest impact on precipitation isotopes in this region. 

Summer warming is driving a greening trend across the Arctic, with the potential for large-scale amplification of climate change due to vegetation-related feedbacks [Pearson et al.,Nat. Clim. Chang.(3), 673–677 (2013)]. Because observational records are sparse and temporally limited, past episodes of Arctic warming can help elucidate the magnitude of vegetation response to temperature change. The Last Interglacial ([LIG], 129,000 to 116,000 y ago) was the most recent episode of Arctic warming on par with predicted 21st century temperature change [Otto-Bliesner et al.,Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.(371), 20130097 (2013) and Post et al.,Sci.Adv. (5), eaaw9883 (2019)]. However, high-latitude terrestrial records from this period are rare, so LIG vegetation distributions are incompletely known. Pollen-based vegetation reconstructions can be biased by long-distance pollen transport, further obscuring the paleoenvironmental record. Here, we present a LIG vegetation record based on ancient DNA in lake sediment and compare it with fossil pollen. Comprehensive plant community reconstructions through the last and current interglacial (the Holocene) on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, reveal coherent climate-driven community shifts across both interglacials. Peak LIG warmth featured a ∼400-km northward range shift of dwarf birch, a key woody shrub that is again expanding northward. Greening of the High Arctic—documented here by multiple proxies—likely represented a strong positive feedback on high-latitude LIG warming. Authenticated ancient DNA from this lake sediment also extends the useful preservation window for the technique and highlights the utility of combining traditional and molecular approaches for gleaning paleoenvironmental insights to better anticipate a warmer future.