Search for: All records

Although the multi‐model average compares well with observations, individually most of the latest climate models do not simulate a realistic size of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool in the present‐day climate. This study explores the implications of this warm pool size bias in climate models in Northern Hemisphere winter. The warm pool size bias in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models is related to the subtropical jet and precipitation distribution, both in the present‐day climate and in response to climate change, through extratropical Rossby wave trains and tropical circulation pathways. Based on these relationships, emergent constraints are developed to observationally constrain the future subtropical jet response over Asia and the Atlantic Ocean and precipitation response over North and Central America, which can help to reduce uncertainty in future projections of these features. Thus, accurate model simulation of the warm pool in the present‐day climate is important for future projections of the subtropical jet and precipitation.

 

Changes in midlatitude clouds as a result of shifts in general circulation patterns are widely thought to be a potential source of radiative feedbacks onto the climate system. Previous work has suggested that two general circulation shifts anticipated to occur in a warming climate, poleward shifts in the midlatitude jet streams and a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, are associated with differing effects on midlatitude clouds. This study examines two dynamical cloud‐controlling factors, mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) of the marine boundary layer temperature inversion, to explain why poleward shifts in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet and Hadley cell edge have varying shortwave cloud‐radiative responses at midlatitudes. Changes in vertical velocity and EIS occur further equatorward for poleward shifts in the Hadley cell edge than they do for poleward shifts of the midlatitude jet. Because the sensitivity of shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCRE) to variations in vertical velocity and EIS is a function of latitude, the SWCRE anomalies associated with jet and Hadley cell shifts differ. The dynamical changes associated with a poleward jet shift occur further poleward in a regime where the sensitivities of SWCRE to changes in vertical velocity and EIS balance, leading to a near‐net zero change in SWCRE in midlatitudes with a poleward jet shift. Conversely, the dynamical changes associated with Hadley cell expansion occur further equatorward at a latitude where the sensitivity of SWCRE is more strongly associated with changes in mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, leading to a net shortwave cloud radiative warming effect in midlatitudes.

 

Variability in the position and strength of the subtropical jet (STJ) and polar front jet (PFJ) streams has important implications for global and regional climate. Previous studies have related the position and strength of the STJ to tropical thermodynamic processes, whereas the position and strength of the PFJ are more associated with midlatitude eddies. These conclusions have largely resulted from studies using idealized models. In this study, ERA‐Interim reanalysis and CMIP6 global climate models are used to examine month‐to‐month and interannual variability of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere (NH) STJ and PFJ. This study particularly focuses on the regional characteristics of the jet variability, extending previous studies on zonal‐mean jet streams. Consistent with idealized modeling studies, a close relationship is found between tropical outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the STJ and between midlatitude lower tropospheric temperature gradients and the PFJ. Variations of both jets are also linked to well‐known teleconnection patterns. Variations in tropical convection over the Pacific Ocean are associated with variations of the NH STJ at most longitudes, with different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated with the shift and strengthening of the STJ in different regions. CMIP6 models generally capture these relationships, but the models’ tropical convection is often displaced westward when compared to observations, reflecting a climatological bias in OLR in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in many models. The displaced tropical convection in models excites different paths of Rossby wave propagation, resulting in different ENSO teleconnections on the STJ over North America and Europe.

 

Recent studies have focused on the role of cloud radiative effects (CRE) in governing the mean atmospheric circulation and its response to climate change. This study instead examines the role of CRE in climate variability in the extratropics. Cloud locking experiments are performed using the Community Earth System Model. In these experiments, CRE are scrambled, such that they maintain the same climatology but no longer match the model's dynamical fields. The results of these experiments indicate that high‐frequency interactions between CRE and dynamics have a small (≤5–10%) but statistically significant damping effect on the intensity of the extratropical storm tracks, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Individual midlatitude cyclones have decreased intensity and shorter lifetime. These effects arise largely from clouds' radiative modification of static stability below 700 hPa. The coupling among clouds, radiation, and dynamics thus has a modest but potentially important influence on the extratropical storm tracks.

 

Clouds and their associated radiative effects are a large source of uncertainty in global climate models. One region with particularly large model biases in shortwave cloud radiative effects (CRE) is the Southern Ocean. Previous research has shown that many dynamical “cloud controlling factors” influence shortwave CRE on monthly time scales and that two important cloud controlling factors over the Southern Ocean are midtropospheric vertical velocity and estimated inversion strength (EIS). Model errors may thus arise from biases in representing cloud controlling factors (atmospheric dynamics) or in representing how clouds respond to those cloud controlling factors (cloud parameterizations), or some combination thereof. This study extends previous work by examining cloud controlling factors over the Southern Ocean on daily time scales in both observations and global climate models. This allows the cloud controlling factors to be examined in the context of transient weather systems. Composites of EIS and midtropospheric vertical velocity are constructed around extratropical cyclones and anticyclones to examine how the different dynamical cloud controlling factors influence shortwave CRE around midlatitude weather systems and to assess how models compare to observations. On average, models tend to produce a realistic cyclone and anticyclone, when compared to observations, in terms of the dynamical cloud controlling factors. The difference between observations and models instead lies in how the models’ shortwave CRE respond to the dynamics. In particular, the models’ shortwave CRE are too sensitive to perturbations in midtropospheric vertical velocity and, thus, they tend to produce clouds that excessively brighten in the frontal region of the cyclone and excessively dim in the center of the anticyclone.

 

Abstract An effective method to understand cloud processes and to assess the fidelity with which they are represented in climate models is the cloud controlling factor framework, in which cloud properties are linked with variations in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical variables. This study examines how midlatitude cloud radiative effects (CRE) over oceans co-vary with four cloud controlling factors: mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, estimated inversion strength (EIS), near-surface temperature advection, and sea surface temperature (SST), and assesses their representation in CMIP6 models with respect to observations and CMIP5 models. CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude CRE to perturbations in vertical velocity, and underestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude shortwave CRE to perturbations in EIS and temperature advection. The largest improvement in CMIP6 models is a reduced sensitivity of CRE to vertical velocity perturbations. As in CMIP5 models, many CMIP6 models simulate a shortwave cloud radiative warming effect associated with a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet stream, an effect not present in observations. This bias arises because most models’ shortwave CRE are too sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations and not sensitive enough to EIS perturbations, and because most models overestimate the SST anomalies associated with SH jet shifts. The presence of this bias directly impacts the transient surface temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases over the Southern Ocean, but not the global-mean surface temperature. Instead, the models’ climate sensitivity is correlated with their shortwave CRE sensitivity to surface temperature advection perturbations near 40°S, with models with more realistic values of temperature advection sensitivity generally having higher climate sensitivity.