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Despite its critical role in the study of earthquake processes, numerical simulation of the entire stages of fault rupture remains a formidable task. The main challenges in simulating a fault rupture process include the complex evolution of fault geometry, frictional contact, and off‐fault damage over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Here, we develop a phase‐field model for quasi‐dynamic fault nucleation, growth, and propagation, which features two standout advantages: (i) it does not require any sophisticated algorithms to represent fault geometry and its evolution; and (ii) it allows for modeling fault nucleation, propagation, and off‐fault damage processes with a single formulation. Built on a recently developed phase‐field framework for shear fractures with frictional contact, the proposed formulation incorporates rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, radiation damping, and their impacts on fault mechanics and off‐fault damage. We show that the numerical results of the phase‐field model are consistent with those obtained from well‐verified approaches that model the fault as a surface of discontinuity, without suffering from the mesh convergence issue in the existing continuous approaches to fault rupture (e.g., the stress glut method). Further, through numerical examples of fault propagation in various settings, we demonstrate that the phase‐field approach may open new opportunities for investigating complex earthquake processes that have remained overly challenging for the existing numerical methods.

 

While significant progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes in linear elastic domains, the effect of more realistic rheologies including plasticity is poorly understood. Here, we simulate the sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip of a 2D antiplane rate‐and‐state fault embedded in a full‐space elastic‐plastic bulk. We show that off‐fault plasticity may lead to partial ruptures as well as temporal clustering of seismic events. Furthermore, the interaction of fault slip and off‐fault plasticity results in pockets of slip deficit. While the energy dissipated through plastic deformation remains a small fraction of the total energy budget, its impact on the source characteristics is disproportionally large through the redistribution of stresses and viscous relaxation. Our results suggest a new mechanism of dynamic heterogeneity in earthquake physics that may have important implications on earthquake size distribution and energy budget.

 

We present a 3D hybrid method which combines the finite element method (FEM) and the spectral boundary integral method (SBIM) to model nonlinear problems in unbounded domains. The flexibility of FEM is used to model the complex, heterogeneous, and nonlinear part— such as the dynamic rupture along a fault with near fault plasticity—and the high accuracy and computational efficiency of SBIM is used to simulate the exterior half spaces perfectly truncating all incident waves. The exact truncation allows us to greatly reduce the domain of spatial discretization compared to a traditional FEM approach, leading to considerable savings in computational time and memory requirements. The coupling of FEM and SBIM is achieved by the exchange of traction and displacement boundary conditions at the computationally defined boundary. The method is suited to implementation on massively parallel computers. We validate the developed method by means of a benchmark problem. Three more complex examples with a low velocity fault zone, low velocity off‐fault inclusion, and interaction of multiple faults, respectively, demonstrate the capability of the hybrid scheme in solving problems of very large sizes. Finally, we discuss potential applications of the hybrid method for problems in geophysics and engineering.

 

ABSTRACT Numerical modeling of earthquake dynamics and derived insight for seismic hazard relies on credible, reproducible model results. The sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) initiative has set out to facilitate community code comparisons, and verify and advance the next generation of physics-based earthquake models that reproduce all phases of the seismic cycle. With the goal of advancing SEAS models to robustly incorporate physical and geometrical complexities, here we present code comparison results from two new benchmark problems: BP1-FD considers full elastodynamic effects, and BP3-QD considers dipping fault geometries. Seven and eight modeling groups participated in BP1-FD and BP3-QD, respectively, allowing us to explore these physical ingredients across multiple codes and better understand associated numerical considerations. With new comparison metrics, we find that numerical resolution and computational domain size are critical parameters to obtain matching results. Codes for BP1-FD implement different criteria for switching between quasi-static and dynamic solvers, which require tuning to obtain matching results. In BP3-QD, proper remote boundary conditions consistent with specified rigid body translation are required to obtain matching surface displacements. With these numerical and mathematical issues resolved, we obtain excellent quantitative agreements among codes in earthquake interevent times, event moments, and coseismic slip, with reasonable agreements made in peak slip rates and rupture arrival time. We find that including full inertial effects generates events with larger slip rates and rupture speeds compared to the quasi-dynamic counterpart. For BP3-QD, both dip angle and sense of motion (thrust versus normal faulting) alter ground motion on the hanging and foot walls, and influence event patterns, with some sequences exhibiting similar-size characteristic earthquakes, and others exhibiting different-size events. These findings underscore the importance of considering full elastodynamics and nonvertical dip angles in SEAS models, as both influence short- and long-term earthquake behavior and are relevant to seismic hazard. 

Abstract In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed >1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university. 

SUMMARY Hazardous tsunamis are known to be generated predominantly at subduction zones. However, the 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu (Indonesia) earthquake on a strike-slip fault generated a tsunami that devastated the city of Palu. The mechanism by which this tsunami originated from such an earthquake is being debated. Here we present near-field ground motion (GPS) data confirming that the earthquake attained supershear speed, i.e. a rupture speed greater than the shear wave speed of the host medium. We subsequently study the effect of this supershear rupture on tsunami generation by coupling the ground motion to a 1-D non-linear shallow-water wave model accounting for both time-dependent bathymetric displacement and velocity. With the local bathymetric profile of Palu bay around a tidal station, our simulations reproduce the tsunami arrival and motions observed by CCTV cameras. We conclude that Mach (shock) fronts, generated by the supershear speed, interacted with the bathymetry and contributed to the tsunami.